Baby bonuses won't solve the birthrate problem

Boston Globe

04-05-2025

Some people,
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But thoughtful demographers and social scientists on both the right and the left have been warning for years that plummeting birthrates will lead to a '
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Of course, in a free society whether to have kids is a matter of individual choice. As nations grow wealthier, fertility typically declines. Expanding opportunities for women, readily available birth control, more years spent in advanced education, the cost of a higher quality of life — they all have combined to discourage childbearing, in advanced countries especially. The United States, where the fertility rate has fallen to 1.8, has
Whether anything can be done to reverse this trajectory is the subject of a lively discussion.
The
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The most straightforward proposal so far is to pay a $5,000 'baby bonus' to every American mother who gives birth. 'Sounds like a good idea to me,'
No doubt many parents with a newborn would welcome the cash. But more free money from the government is rarely a good idea. For one thing, it is never 'free' — more federal spending means more federal borrowing, which increases the national debt and
The idea isn't new. Quite a few other countries already pay bonuses to parents who have children, in most cases with minimal effect. Germany pays '
In Australia, new parents receive the equivalent of
Baby bonuses prove 'costly and ineffective' almost everywhere they are tried, wrote Leonard Lopoo, a professor of public administration and international affairs at Syracuse University, in a recent
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Government benefits and incentives may have some impact at the margins, but ultimately the only real strategy for reversing demographic decline is to change cultural norms surrounding marriage and child-rearing. That is the lesson from Israel, the one advanced country where the fertility rate remains far above replacement level, at more than 2.9 children per woman. All the factors that usually lead to falling birthrates are present in Israel: a rising cost of living, pronounced female participation in the workforce, high rates of education, easily accessible birth control, expensive housing. Yet fertility remains incredibly robust — not only among Israel's most traditional and religious communities, but also among the far more numerous Israelis who live modern or secular lifestyles.
'The real secret to Israel's fertility rates appears to be cultural,'
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That isn't the kind of deep-rooted cultural norm that can be bought with a 'baby bonus.' It can only be established through the steady revitalization of civil society, and through the inculcation of a worldview that celebrates family life as a blessing beyond measure. There is no easy fix for making that happen. But if a culture that treasures children can take root in one modern, democratic, and pluralistic society, it can take root in others. Perhaps, in time, even in ours.
Jeff Jacoby can be reached at