CANADA ELECTION 2025: Polls had a Liberal majority. What did they miss and how will the Liberals govern in a minority?
Polling isn't an exact science, especially in local races where momentum can be difficult to spot.
Several Ontario races in the
April 28 federal election
defied the pollsters, with predictions from poll aggregator
338 Canada
missing the mark in some key electoral districts.
Peter Graefe, associate professor of political science at McMaster University, said local races can be tough to call.
'A lot of it can be guesswork because we don't have a lot of riding-level polls and things are often based on the swing from last time,' he said.
While the Conservatives were ultimately unable to stop the Liberals from forming government, the party fared better than some pollsters predicted.
Elections Canada unofficial results show the Liberals missed out on a majority government by three seats, winning 169 ridings to the Conservatives' 144. But 338 Canada had the Liberals pegged to win 186 seats on election day, well above the 172 needed for majority status.
To see what went wrong, we need to look no further than Ontario.
Several seats listed as Liberal or New Democratic Party-leaning went to the Conservatives.
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek was listed as 'Liberal safe' by 338 Canada, for example, but went to Conservative candidate Ned Kuruc.
London-Fanshawe was pegged as a toss-up between the Liberals and NDP but ended up going to Conservative candidate Kurt Holman.
Brampton West was listed as 'Liberal likely' but went to the Conservatives.
Kitchener Centre was pegged to remain with the Green Party and incumbent Mike Morrice but narrowly voted Conservative.
Windsor West was supposed to be a toss-up between the Liberals and NDP but also went to the Conservatives.
While the Liberal vote in Ontario was largely centred around major urban centres like Toronto and Ottawa, the party also managed to defy pollsters in a few ridings.
Carleton was listed as Conservative leaning but was won by Liberal Bruce Fanjoy over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Hamilton Centre was listed in the NDP column but went to Liberal candidate Aslam Rana.
Graefe said voter turnout is one variable that might explain a better-than-expected showing for the Conservatives in Ontario. Elections Canada said 68.55 per cent of Ontario residents cast a ballot, up from 62.3 per cent in 2021. Those numbers include a record of more than seven million advance votes.
Higher turnout may have helped the Conservatives, who held several well-attended town halls and rallies.
Overall, the Conservatives' efforts to frame themselves as the party of change after 10 years of Liberal rule might account for some of the party's Ontario gains.
'It's too soon to tell what the deciding factors were, whether the polls had it wrong or there was a differential turnout,' said Graefe.
While Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his own seat in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton, the Conservatives may have benefitted from the collapse of the NDP in some ridings, like Windsor West.
In Poilievre's Carleton riding, Graefe said the NDP vote collapse likely helped the Liberals, leading to Fanjoy's upset win.
While the
Liberals won 69 Ontario seats
compared to the Conservatives' 53, Graefe said Liberal support was inefficient compared to previous elections.
While piling up huge majorities in Toronto and capturing 49 per cent of the popular vote in Ontario, the Liberals bettered their overall vote share from 2021 but lost close races in suburban 416, 519 and 905 area codes.
Despite falling a few seats short of a majority government, Graefe doesn't believe the Liberals will need a new supply and confidence agreement with the NDP to secure lasting power.
The NDP is expected to begin searching for a new leader after the party was reduced to seven seats. Leader Jagmeet Singh lost his Burnaby South seat and has pledged to resign as leader.
Graefe said the NDP is in no position to join forces with the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois to bring down the Liberal government.
'I suspect the Liberals will go back to the strategy that (prime minister Justin) Trudeau used in 2019 and 2021 of going on a case-by-case basis,' said Graefe.
Graefe called the Liberal government 'a stable minority' given the party has a higher percentage of seats than Trudeau had in 2021.
The NDP would likely prefer a minority Liberal government that they can negotiate with, rather than a Liberal or Conservative majority, Graefe added.
Another uncertainty is the political future of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Graefe said the Conservative leader may ask a caucus member to step down and force a byelection in a safe Conservative seat, to allow Poilievre a chance to return to the House of Commons.
'I think it's hard to imagine him without a seat for a very long period,' said Graefe.
Poilievre has not indicated he will resign as party leader. In a concession speech following Carney's win on Monday, Poilievre touted an increase of 20 Conservative seats in the House of Commons and vowed to keep working for the party.
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