Federal Liberals' stadium uncertainty comes at a bad time for Tasmanian government
Three years after it first promised to build it, a proposed Hobart AFL stadium keeps causing political headaches for the Tasmanian government.
The issue was subject to yet another no-confidence motion in state parliament on Tuesday.
And a Liberal Party source says the project is still so on the nose in the state's north that the Liberals' federal election campaign committee considered publicly ditching its support for the stadium late in the federal election campaign, in a bid to get voters back on side.
It's not clear how seriously the move was considered, with some candidates up for election not aware until now that it was even debated.
But eventually, the source says, the committee decided not to press ahead with the move, deciding it would not make a difference to the party's electoral chances so late in the campaign, and that it would cause unnecessary internal division.
The proposed stadium is due to be completed by 2029.
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Photo shows
A concept image of the proposed Hobart stadium at Macquarie Poi nt.
A leading independent economist tasked with reviewing Tasmania's proposal to build an AFL stadium on Hobart's waterfront finds the project is "already displaying the hallmarks of mismanagement" and is likely to exceed $1 billion.
That moving away from the stadium was even up for discussion shows a couple of things.
The first is just
An EMRS poll released earlier this year showed about two-thirds of respondents were against the stadium in all three northern electorates — 65 per cent in Braddon, 64 per cent in Bass and 63 per cent in Lyons.
And Liberal Party sources say it continued to come up as an issue on the doors all the way through the federal election campaign.
Former Braddon MP Gavin Pearce told the ABC the stadium was one of many issues that came up with constituents, saying he stadium "creates a lot of angst" in the north-west coast.
The second is that the Liberal Party got an inkling just before the election of just how bad things were going to be in Bass, Braddon and Lyons — three seats it was confident of holding just a few months ago.
Photo shows
Jess Teesdale stands alongside volunteers after winning seat of Bass
Northern Tasmania dramatically swings to Labor in a surprise result that pushed out a high-profile MP and turned a safe Liberal seat red.
With the party in that much trouble so late in the piece, it wasn't considering tinkering around the edges to win an extra vote here or there — it needed to consider big changes to sway the minds of thousands and thousands of voters.
Ditching support for the stadium — the pet project Premier Jeremy Rockliff said he was willing to return to the spud farm over — would definitely be that kind of big move.
And it's the kind of tactic that's worked in the past.
Jeremy Rockliff pictured on his farm in north-west Tasmania.
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Facebook: Jeremy Rockliff
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In 2019, with the Liberals seen as unlikely to win back Bass and Braddon, it launched a local campaign targeting the "Hobart-centric" Labor Party, which had pledged
"It is our view that precious taxpayer funds should instead be spent on essential services such as health, not an AFL team in Hobart," Liberal Senator Richard Colbeck said in 2019.
The message resonated, with Liberals Bridget Archer and Gavin Pearce winning their way to Canberra and kicking Labor incumbents out of their seats.
But things are very different this time around.
They'd be going against the views of the state Liberal Party, and even against local candidates like Senator Colbeck — who is pro-team and pro-stadium.
And in 2019, the Liberals hammered home that message against the funding for many months. If they decided to do it again in 2025, they'd only have had a few weeks.
Such a big pivot so late could have had the undesired effect of confusing voters, rather than making them feel listened to.
The debate over whether Tasmania can afford to build and operate a stadium has divided the state.
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Supplied: MPDC
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Borrowing on the cards
The federal government abandoning support would have made the stadium sell job even tougher for a state government that's been consistently under attack over the project.
Just this week, it's been accused of abandoning its promise to cap the cost to Tasmanian taxpayers at $375 million, after walking away from its plan for a public private partnership to fund part of the project.
Instead, it will use borrowings from the Macquarie Point Development Corporation to cover anything more than the $630 million of combined funding from the AFL and state and federal governments.
Photo shows
A render of the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, showing a wood-panelled round structure
The Tasmanian government plans to fund construction of the stadium via borrowings, rather than looking to partner with the private sector, saying the latter would carry too high a risk to the state and threaten already tight timelines.
The news prompted outrage from crossbench MPs, and the pro-stadium Labor Opposition, that says the Tasmanian government had broken a promise it made more than 100 times.
But the state government continues to claim borrowings were always part of the plan — and insists it hasn't broken its word.
The change in direction comes as the Liberals prepare to put forward enabling legislation allowing the stadium to be built, after a scathing draft report from the Project of State Significance process.
Needing two Upper House independents to support the legislation, the state government is desperate to reclaim the narrative, and illustrate just why people should get on board the project.
It needs wins and momentum, not headlines that its closest allies consider the stadium too toxic to support.
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