Bomb drills and brinkmanship: Stakes high for Thailand, Cambodia in latest territorial tensions

CNA

a day ago

NAM YUEN, Thailand/TEUK KRAHAM, Cambodia: Sirens are blaring from loudspeakers as hundreds of students start piling out of classrooms with urgency and assemble under a roofed sports court.
Once they are seated in cross-legged lines on the court, a teacher stands in front of them instructing what routes they should use if an emergency starts to unfold or what body position to take if bombs start to drop on their location.
This is a township that feels on the brink of danger. The border with Cambodia is just a few kilometres from this school, this community in Nam Yuen in Ubon Ratchathani province in Thailand's far east.
Since May 28, residents here have watched as red-hot tensions have built between the two neighbouring countries over generational territorial disputes inflamed by the death of a Cambodian soldier during a brief firefight with Thai troops in Chong Bok, a nearby contested patch of jungle familiar to all locals in this area.
That skirmish occurred in what is referred to as the Emerald Triangle, marking the meeting of three nations: Thailand, Laos and Cambodia.
It is lush and jungle-filled land, giving it its moniker, in contrast to the drier riverscape of the Golden Triangle borderland between the same countries further north.
Throughout its past, it has many times been a battleground among actors from each of the trio of nations. Once again, a shadow of violence has befallen this territory, much to the pain of those who live close.
The May 28 incident led Thailand and Cambodia to exchange a war of words as they beefed up military forces in the border area and cut back operating hours at various crossings, sparking concerns over a possible conflict.
Even as tensions appeared to have subsided in recent days, following direct talks between their top leaders and the militaries reportedly agreeing to return to their previous positions before the escalation, locals in both countries told CNA that they remain anxious over the prospect of an armed confrontation.
The situation could shift after talks by the Thailand–Cambodia Joint Boundary Committee (JBC) set for tomorrow (Jun 14), though experts say a peaceful resolution remains fraught with challenges, given Phnom Penh's intention to take their spat over disputed temple ruins to an international court, a move that Bangkok disagrees with.
And, with the two countries now led by young and relatively inexperienced premiers who are offsprings of former leaders, the ongoing tensions pose a suite of challenges for both sides in balancing diplomacy and protecting national interests.
A CENTURY-LONG SAGA
For more than 100 years, Thailand and Cambodia have disputed territorial control over various undemarcated points along their border, which was drawn up by the French in 1907 when Cambodia was its colony. It was based on an agreed demarcation along the natural watershed line between both sides.
Clashes have broken out sporadically. The most serious escalated in 2008 over Cambodia's attempt to list 11th-century Preah Vihear temple as a UNESCO World Heritage site and saw multiple soldiers killed in confrontations between armed forces over several years, including a week-long artillery exchange in 2011.
That year, Cambodia requested the ICJ interpret the court's own 1962 judgment, which had awarded sovereignty of the temple to Cambodia, and to impose measures to halt military clashes around the site. Two years later in 2013, the ICJ ruled that the entire temple promontory fell under Cambodia's jurisdiction.
The comparisons with the situation unfolding now are clear, said Dulyapak Preecharush, an associate professor of Asian Studies at Thammasat University.
'After gaining a favourable outcome from the ICJ ruling in the 1960s, and then again in 2011, they have continued to use these rulings to justify expanding their territorial claims. I believe that is their objective,' he said, referring to Cambodia.
The latest round of tensions could be traced back to February after a group of Cambodian soldiers and civilians sang the Cambodian national anthem at the disputed Ta Muen Thom temple, about 200km west of the Preah Vihear complex.
The temple is now among four border sites that Cambodia has identified in its reported intention to file cases to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to settle 'unresolved and sensitive issues'. The others are Mom Bei and two temple sites Ta Muen Tauch and Ta Krabei.
The protest resulted in a verbal dispute between the two sides and a formal complaint by the Thai government, which viewed the act as provocative.
Since the May shooting, the respective governments have exchanged several statements ahead of the planned convening of the JBC.
The Cambodian government labelled the incident an 'unprovoked act of aggression and a violation of Cambodia's sovereignty and territorial integrity'.
The Thai troops were compelled to defend themselves while conducting routine patrols, the Thai government said in its statement.
While it was prepared to launch a "high-level operation" in response, 'war will only be considered as a last resort', Thai Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said.
DE-ESCALATING TENSIONS
On Jun 8, both countries confirmed that troops would return to border positions agreed to in 2024, a step to de-escalate the rising tensions. Cambodia strongly asserted that its forces had not been withdrawn from any areas under its own sovereignty.
It followed Thailand exerting economic pressure by closing or restricting opening times of multiple border crossings, key gateways for Cambodian goods and workers. Thailand operates 17 official border crossings along the shared 817km divide; last weekend, 10 of them had their operations adjusted by authorities.
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was on hand to inspect the border situation on Jun 11, making her first visit to the international frontier since the latest round of unease. She is believed to be the first leader from both sides to visit a border zone since the May 28 shooting.
Accompanied by ministers and military personnel, Paetongtarn received a short briefing at the Chong Chom border crossing in Surin province from ground forces before spending several minutes interacting with a group of locals and posing for photos with them before leaving without speaking to the media.
It came a day after she reportedly held top-level talks with both Cambodian leader Hun Manet and his father, former Prime Minister Hun Sen.
'The result was that we managed to negotiate peacefully and avoid violent clashes,' Paetongtarn, the youngest daughter of former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was quoted as saying by Khaosod. Thaksin and Hun Sen reportedly enjoy close ties and remain active in their country's politics.
That lowering of temperature was felt on the ground by locals in Ubon Ratchathani.
'The situation here is getting better in a positive way. But I strongly believe that sustainability of the situation along the border is a top priority,' Wasawat Poungponsri, a local member of parliament and the leader of the Peu Thai Rumphalang Party, told CNA.
UNEASE IN THE AIR
But military muscle remains on display around the Nam Yuen district; the Thai army controls multiple checkpoints, soldiers armed with machine guns remain on active duty and helicopters occasionally sweep overhead.
Civilians feel the unease in the air. About 15km west, at another school in Nam Khun district, Wasawat was on hand to help dig sand and place it into bags to form makeshift shelter barriers. Children will be able to hide under concrete bunkers in the event of war, he explained.
'If the conflict occurs or erupts, these villagers will face the emergency evacuation plan first,' he said.
Students help too, wearing their pink school shirts before rain starts to grow heavy and they retreat back to their classrooms.
Classes have not been cancelled here, even as children help build their own protections from possible conflict.
'We've conducted drills, having the children run into the shelter,' said Weerapong Pongloh, director of Ban Non Yang School.
'Although tensions are high, no clashes have occurred yet, so we're staying prepared.'
On the Cambodian side of the border, narrow white bitumen roads wind around thick jungle, where troops have set up checkpoints close to the Emerald Triangle.
The same deep anxiety has taken hold of residents in Teuk Kraham commune, about 10km from where the fighting took place last month. On the day of the incidents, about 100 families were evacuated, sources told CNA.
Seeing soldiers in this area is normal, said Pout Khuoch, a 32-year-old local, but fear spread quickly and families rushed to send their children to live with relatives in nearby villages for safety after hearing about the shooting, she said.
Lun Vet, a 63-year-old resident of Mom Bei - the term used for the Emerald Triangle in Cambodia - has lived there since 1977, shortly after the end of Cambodia's civil war. 'In the morning after hearing about the incident, I hurried to move to my son-in-law's place in Choam Ksant to stay for 10 days until the situation got better,' she said.
At 63 years old, and a former soldier who once served under the notorious Khmer Rouge commander Ta Mok, she has strong feelings about which side is responsible for the crisis.
'Mom Bei is Cambodia's territory. The Thais came to invade us,' she said.
While tensions have since eased, not all villagers have returned. Some remain afraid, reluctant to come back. Along the way, markets in the area are unusually quiet, with few customers. Supplies of food and basic goods are still available and some schools continue to operate.
Other villagers, including Khuoch, expressed a deep desire for peace, urging both governments to resolve the ongoing border dispute diplomatically.
'I wish to see both countries find a peaceful solution,' she said. 'If war breaks out, everything we've built over the past 30 or 40 years will be destroyed.'
CONCERNS OVER TEMPLE SITES
Concerns remain among locals in both countries living near the disputed temple sites too.
At Ta Muen Thom on Jun 11, both Thai and Cambodian soldiers co-patrolled the ancient site. From the Thai side, dozens of tourists - many of them local government employees - enjoyed day trips clambering through structures that once formed part of a royal road that ran through the Khmer empire.
Thai visitors expressed concern about the prospect of losing grip on the site.
'⁠I feel deeply saddened. We've always believed this place belonged to us,' said Kanokrat Termsook, the deputy mayor of Chok Na Sam Subdistrict in Surin.
On the Cambodian side, a group of locals prayed to spirits of their ancestors at the site, to protect the land and keep it safe from any enemy.
Hong Ing, 66, told CNA about the days he would guard the temples as a young man, before the Khmer Rouge regime came to power in 1968, and protection of the area was neglected.
'These temples belong to us, not them. If a war were to break out, I would fight relentlessly to reclaim my Khmer heritage,' he said.
The Emerald Triangle itself is now also subject to Cambodia's territorial claim.
The area is small - just 12 sq km. The broader area encompasses the Thai province of Ubon Ratchathani, Cambodia's Preah Vihear province and Champasak province in Laos.
Throughout the 1970s and 80s, the triangle was a land of insurgency and drug-fuelled conflicts, as the area grew a reputation as a haven for cannabis cultivation.
Throughout time, it has been a flashpoint between Thai forces, the Khmer Rouge, Lao resistance groups and Vietnamese-backed Cambodian troops. Land mines still litter the area.
Ha Samek, a 51-year-old farmer in Thung Somdet village has lived with the perils of war every day since 1986. In nearby fields, he stood on a mine dating back to the Vietnam War, losing his right leg in the process.
His sister, who lives in the same village, lost her leg too in a similar fashion 14 years ago. Both are desperate for the latest round of brinksmanship to settle and for their homeland to avoid being further scarred by fighting.
'Even this time, I'm still afraid. I've heard from the news that they've withdrawn troops, but who knows if that's true,' Ha said.
'I don't sleep well. I'm anxious. Even thunder wakes me up. It brings back memories. When I hear talk of war, even thunder makes me jump because I'm scared it's gunfire.'
Many of the local people here rely on the land. The region has seen very little economic development, despite years of planning on paper and trilateral agreements to do so.
In 1993, a pavilion was constructed in the middle of the triangle to symbolise cooperation between the three neighbours.
Following that, the Emerald Triangle Economic Cooperation Project was established in 2000 with a focus on economics, tourism, politics and social matters between the three governments.
At that time Cambodia proposed a golf course across three countries with private investors. Roads were built and tourism activities discussed, but little has developed since.
UPCOMING TALKS
Now, Cambodia is again turning to the ICJ for clarity over its territorial assertions, a move that has dented prospects of a favourable outcome from the upcoming JBC talks for both sides to thrash out delicate points.
Even before it starts, Cambodia has ruled out discussing the most contentious aspects of its territorial claims.
Cambodia stated that the four contested border sites will not be on the meeting's agenda because it had already stated its intention to lodge the cases to the ICJ.
Cambodia's National Assembly and Senate unanimously endorsed the move on Jun 2.
'These four areas have long remained unresolved and sensitive, with the potential to escalate tensions if left unaddressed,' the government's statement read on Jun 4.
"Given the complexity, historical nature, and sensitivity of these disputes, it is increasingly evident that bilateral dialogue alone may no longer suffice to bring about a comprehensive and lasting solution,' Cambodia's foreign minister Prak Sokhonn wrote in a letter to his Thai counterpart on Jun 6.
'A decision rendered by the ICJ, grounded in international law, would offer a fair, impartial, and durable resolution,' he said.
However, the Thai government said it does not recognise the court's jurisdiction and urged the dispute to be resolved through bilateral means.
The Cambodian government said that it would continue with the court proceedings regardless of Thailand's cooperation.
David Hutt, a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), wrote in his commentary on The Diplomat site that the ICJ option gives Cambodia a bargaining chip if Bangkok approaches the talks too aggressively.
'In other words, Cambodia has an alternative that Bangkok would not want it to pursue. Moreover, the threat of taking the case to the ICJ allows Cambodia to garner some international support,' he added.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, the former chairman of the Prime Minister's Security Advisory Committee, described Cambodia's strategy as sophisticated and three-pronged.
It has involved invoking symbolism around sovereignty and nationalism, aggressive tactical manoeuvrings by the military emboldened by new capacity and very strategic diplomatic tactics involving ASEAN, the JBC and ICJ, he told CNA.
'It's very clear, very clear that these are new capabilities, new approaches, more aggressive, and never seen before,' he said.
But while the JBC is the right mechanism to solve ongoing issues, he said it has a poor track record of actually being decisive.
'Since the creation of the JBC almost 30 years ago, the protests against Cambodian incursion to the Thai territories and vice versa have not been successfully handled,' he said.
'There is no reason to expect that this time they can be successful. But at least, you meet, and you table new issues.'
THAILAND'S PERCEIVED WEAKNESSES
A heady mix of an assertive Cambodian administration, flush with modern military hardware and a ruling family with a long penchant for guarding the nation's cultural and territorial identity is presenting an unexpected challenge to Thailand's leadership to handle this latest saga, political analysts told CNA.
The Thai government has consistently delivered public messages calling for restraint and compromise since late May. But it has been slow to act and especially early on, appeared to be uncertain and disorganised, said Dulyapak.
'The Thai government has responded too slowly, likely because we didn't expect Cambodia to make a move at this time,' he said.
He said that Cambodia could be taking advantage of perceived weakness among Thai leadership and the close ties between the ruling Shinawatra and Hun families.
'For Cambodia, this is seen as an opportunity. If Thailand sees them as a friend, it may become careless and fail to prepare a timely response,' he said.
'This is now about national interest. It's no longer just between two families.'
On the Thai side, internal political movements have raised the question of how much the Shinawatra family, or the government, can truly protect national interests or deal effectively with Cambodia, he argued.
'But on the Cambodian side, we don't see this kind of internal questioning. The Cambodian government is strongly nationalist, and so are its people. What is consistent is Cambodia's continuous and intense national strategy and mobilisation of resources in its conflict with Thailand,' he said.
Panitan said the Thai government has struggled to respond this time, due to recent years of turbulence in domestic politics, changes in leadership and turmoil within military structures in Thailand. Strategists in Phnom Penh have seized the moment, he said.
'I think that's one thing that the Cambodian leaders sensed weeks ago, months ago. That there would be no consensus on how to respond, giving Cambodia more time to move more forward before they retreated,' added Panitan, citing the failure of the Thai government to call an emergency meeting of the National Security Council in the wake of the shooting as an example.
In Thai circles of leadership, Panitan said, there were clear signs of the ruling Pheu Thai party's reluctance to lean too heavily on the country's security apparatus, due to some of the fractious relations that have long stood.
Dulyapak said Paetongtarn, a relatively inexperienced politician, now faces challenges in terms of leadership and decisiveness, especially in managing foreign relations with Cambodia.
'There's also a clear lack of unity between her civilian government and the military,' he said.
The interplay between the government and military will be essential to observe, he said, especially to see how responsibility for this issue is divided.
For Hun Manet, less than two years into his prime ministership, a bold border strategy is likely to help him gain political support domestically, Dulyapak said.
But he will have to juggle nationalistic endeavours with economic pragmatism and tread carefully to ensure against Thai actions to cut off electricity, water, or phone signals to negatively affect Cambodian people.
'Such actions could lead to significant hardship for the Cambodian population. This is a serious challenge, as it risks economic strain and public dissatisfaction,' he said.
On Thursday, Hun Manet announced that the country would stop buying internet bandwidth from Thailand over national security concerns.
Hun Sen meanwhile suggested Cambodia suspend the broadcasting of all Thai television channels and consider halting the trade of all Thai goods altogether. He added that Cambodia should not fear the repatriation of Cambodian workers from Thailand, as it would negatively impact the Thai economy.
YEARNING FOR SAFETY
As resolution at the top level remains elusive, fear at the ground level remains pervasive.
A near-full moon shines its light down onto the faces of a small makeshift squadron of local villages perched by benches in a small village in Nam Yuen.
Half a dozen local men are on patrol. They wear uniforms with badges and carry batons by their sides. After the sun sets, they emerge for duty and sit in the darkness from 8pm until dawn. Just watching.
Cambodia is about 30km from here but they say they have a duty to protect their community from anyone unwelcome who might appear.
The days of rising apprehension have led to sleepless nights for locals here. For the village chief Sikanet Samila, their presence is more about peace of mind than acting as a real militia.
'We can't guarantee our own safety. What we're doing is for the community, not for ourselves. All we have are batons and flashlights, so there's definitely some risk,' he said.
'But because we care about our community - this land belongs to our parents - we're not afraid. This is our homeland.'
For now, their nights have remained silent, just like their actual soldier brethren up in the nearby jungle.
In this border standoff, deterrence might be the strongest strategy at hand.