Carney's first foreign policy test begins at G7 — amid Middle East crisis and Trump's trade war

Yahoo

8 hours ago

Prime Minister Mark Carney will welcome leaders of the world's most powerful democratic countries Sunday for the start of a three-day meeting in the Rocky Mountains — a high-stakes summit that longtime G7 observers say could be one of the most consequential in years.
Carney's priorities for this gathering in Kananaskis, Alta., reflect the challenges of our time: war and peace, energy security with a focus on critical minerals and artificial intelligence and "securing the partnerships of the future," according to the Prime Minister's Office. This will include talk about U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade actions against Canada and other G7 countries.
And as parts of Western Canada go up in flames, Carney has also put wildfires on the agenda. The leaders will discuss bolstering joint responses to climate disasters and some sort of "wildfire charter" is expected.
Israel's strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, which began Friday, could overshadow the discussions on the official agenda.
The guest list for the summit, which includes India's Narendra Modi, has drawn some domestic criticism but Carney has argued that big global challenges should be addressed by the world's big players — even if there are some lingering tensions."It's a landmark summit because never before have these leaders had to confront so many strong, simultaneously interconnected crises," said John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto.
Kirton is pleased with the guest list Carney has assembled, saying there are more leaders of consequence coming to Kananaskis than perhaps any other such meeting in recent memory.
In addition to the G7 members and India, Brazil, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Ukraine, Mexico and Australia — the secretaries general of the UN, NATO and EU along with the head of the World Bank will be there for at least part of the proceedings.
When Trudeau hosted in 2018, Canada's guest list included leaders from "overwhelmingly little countries" with a focus on those facing endangered by rising shorelines like Jamaica, the Marshall Islands and the Seychelles, Kirton said.
"Carney's list — it's a great one," Kirton told CBC News. "If you really want to lead the world, and not just the G7 part of the world, then you want the next tier of the biggest leaders there at the table."
Leaders will begin to arrive Sunday and then be ferried by helicopter to the summit site. Monday's session will be broadly focused on the economy and "economic peace," and then security matters, government officials said in a background briefing. The second day will be when the non-G7 leaders will be brought in. It's also when Ukraine will be a major focus.
Carney personally invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a path forward for that war-torn country.
Trump has been hostile to Ukraine at times as he pushes for a swift resolution to the war Russia started — but he has largely maintained U.S. military support and anti-Russia sanctions despite some of his tough talk.
On trade and Ukraine, the summit's success will depend on what Trump does or does not do, said Fen Hampson, a professor of international relations and the co-chair of the expert group on Canada-U.S. relations at Carleton University.
"Even when it comes to his tech bro buddies, things can go sideways pretty quickly," Hampson said. "That's really the big risk here — does the president arrive in a good mood willing to do business, or is he in a bad mood?"
While he's not expecting Trump to drop all of his tariffs after a few days in the mountains, Hampson said a U.S. "commitment to work together in a positive way" and revisit trade actions could be spun as a win by Carney.
A commitment from Trump to stay the course in Ukraine would also be well-received by Carney and the Europeans in the room, Hampson said.
To secure that sort of shift, Europe may commit to dropping policies that irritate Trump, including its digital services tax, while Canada could play up its newfound commitment to a stronger military and more defence spending, longtime U.S. demands, Hampson said.
But depending on Trump to play nice is a risky proposition, he said.
"Carney is more than just the head waiter at this meeting," Hampson said. "This is going to be a real test of his own negotiating skills."
Increasing tensions in the Middle East after Israel launched airstrikes in Iran will further test Carney. Iran fired dozens of missiles toward Israel hours later.
"With Israel's attack on Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran-Israel dynamics have to be at least informally on the agenda," University of Ottawa political science professor Thomas Juneau said. "It makes Prime Minister Carney's job way more complicated than it already was."
No joint communique
Unlike at past G7 summits, Canada is not planning to get all leaders to agree to a joint communique — a sometimes unwieldy list of priorities and accomplishments that all countries agree to sign.
Instead, Canada has been working with the other countries ahead of time to secure leaders' approval on a series of short, joint statements focused on concrete actions and outcomes in key areas, a senior government official said ahead of the summit.
This strategy could be interpreted as a way to avoid what befell the 2018 G7 meeting Canada hosted in Charlevoix, Que.
Trump did not want to sign on to a series of climate change-focused measures — something former prime minister Justin Trudeau made a priority at those talks despite Trump's well-known hostility to environmentalism.
The president ultimately agreed to the joint communique while withholding U.S. support for some green measures — but then torpedoed G7 unity entirely in a series of post-summit tweets, saying he was offended by what Trudeau said at a closing news conference.
Rather than squabble over policy measures Trump will never support, Carney is focused on getting G7 leaders to coalesce around things that have a reasonable chance of garnering a consensus, a senior government official said.
The government is framing this agenda as a more streamlined, focused document than the last one. Trudeau, by comparison, tried to get G7 support for 28 areas of agreement in Charlevoix.
Trump may be the sticking point on trade and Ukraine, but Kirton said Carney's program suggests Canada is setting up this meeting to be a success on other issues.
"If you're going to hit home runs, you really need the U.S. to go along with you. On many of Mark Carney's priorities, it's easy to see Donald Trump agreeing," he said, referring to defence spending, AI and a move to crack down on deadly drugs like fentanyl.
"Carney has said he wants Canada to be a global leader. This is the way to make that happen — if he can pull it all together on the spot."