UFC Vegas 102 predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Jared Cannonier still a middleweight contender?

Yahoo

14-02-2025

Middleweight headliner season is in full swing. UFC Vegas 102's main event will be the third straight UFC event with a 185-pound tilt closing the show, as Jared Cannonier meets Gregory Rodrigues.
After last weekend's title fight rematch between the champion Dricus du Plessis and challenger Sean Strickland, the time is now for each to capitalize.
Outside of the stakes in the matchup, UFC Vegas 102 is mostly your bare-bones typical APEX Facility amalgamation of warehouse fisticuffs. Let's break it all down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Saturday's UFC Vegas 102 main event is as much of a crossroads matchup as it gets. Cannonier, 40, is on a downward skid after back-to-back losses, while Rodrigues, 32, can extend his win streak to four.
Cannonier has been an inconsistent yet still dangerous middleweight fighter of late. He holds wins over former champions Sean Strickland and Anderson Silva and set a UFC record for the most significant strikes landed in a middleweight bout with his performance over Marvin Vettori in his most recent victory — a June 2023 unanimous decision. Since then, both Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho proved once again that time is every athlete's biggest enemy, as the youthful duo out-volumed and out-damaged Cannonier en route to wins in 2024.
Rodrigues is fearless when it comes to a good, old-fashioned war. That will help — and potentially hurt — him against a fighter who still packs the power Cannonier does. However, Cannonier's once-impressive durability has appeared to fade after a long career competing against top-level fighters. Imavov and Borralho both hurt him standing. "Robocop" lives up to his nickname and won't go away.
This should primarily be a striking affair, and the pressure Rodrigues brings in exchanges and clinch warfare will wear on "The Killa Gorilla" over time. In the end, the tides will continue to turn in the 185-pound waters.
Pick: Rodrigues
If there's one fight not to miss on this card, it's the co-main event between Calvin Kattar and Youssef Zalal.
The perennial featherweight contender Kattar has recently onto hard times of late and rides a three-fight losing streak into the matchup. Similar to the main event, this is also a crossroads fight, with Zalal on the other side surging and looking better than ever. Zalal left the UFC after a majority draw in August 2022 ended his first stint with the promotion, but he hasn't lost in six straight appearances — three since returning to the Octagon.
Kattar, 36, is as tough as they come but the miles may be catching up to him after hard-fought losses to Josh Emmett and Aljamain Sterling, with an ACL tear against Arnold Allen sandwiched between. Boxing is where Kattar typically shines, and seeing how he and Zalal collide in that department is a compelling possibility, however the fight IQ of the Morrocan has expanded tremendously over his recent stretch, as Zalal has taken fights to the ground when necessary and submitted his past four opponents with rear-naked chokes and arm triangles (two each). His combinations are nasty as a striker and deliver damage with more than just punches.
Kattar vs. Zalal is another case of momentum in opposite directions, and Zalal is putting it all together at just 28 years old.
Pick: Zalal
Speaking of inconsistent middleweights, Edmen Shahbazyna is back in action.
The career of the former Edmond Tarverdyan protege has been a rollercoaster, to say the least. When you actually dissect the path of Shahbazyan, it's a classic story of "too much, too soon." Shahbazyan has only lost to veterans or ranked contenders like Imavov, Jack Hermansson, Derek Brunson, Anthony Hernandez and Gerald Meerschaert. All it took was one stellar head kick against Brad Tavares in November 2019 to get the UFC overly excited.
Outside of the opponents listed, Shahbazyan beats those on a similar experience level to him, and on paper, Budka is a relative layup.
Having suffered losses in each of his first two UFC appearances after earning a contract through Contender Series, Budka will have to overcome the fast start of Shahbazyan. Budka needs to catch him with a big shot or tire Shahbazyan late for a stoppage — both of which are easier said than done.
Pick: Shahbazyan
The Bonfim brothers unite!
Ismael Bonfim's only blemish on his record over the past decade came against Benoit Saint Denis in 2023. To rebound, he turned back veteran lightweight Vinc Pichel via unanimous decision — his lone 2024 fight.
Nazim Sadykhov has been a very entertaining prospect thus far in his career. He stopped Terrance McKinney and went to war with Viacheslav Borshchev in his past two fights. Sadykhov is a dangerous finisher no matter where the fight goes, but the well-rounded Bonfim has the experience, poise and level of competition in his favor. He'll be one step ahead to outpoint his opponent.
Pick: Bonfim
I've noticed a weird pattern with some of these UFC APEX shows. Fighters who compete on them often intertwine and align for future cards. Somehow, the loser sometimes gets billed above the winner too, as is the case with Andre Petroski, who defeated Budka in his last fight. Make it make sense.
Oh well.
Rodolfo Vieira has won two straight via arm triangle and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu has been borderline indefensible unless you can stop the takedown. Petroski won't be able to, and he'll get choked until he either naps or taps like the rest on Vieira's résumé.
Pick: Vieira
UFC wants you to know about Jose Delgado., and you should want to know about Jose Delgado.
The 26-year-old prospect has been the exact type of all-action competitor UFC CEO Dana White loves to find through the Contender Series. This debut pairing against Connor Matthews has him set up with every chance to shine and add a ninth career finish to his résumé.
Matthews' level of opposition has simply left much to be desired, and when faced with legitimate challenges like Francis Marshall and Dennis Buzkja, he fell short. Delgado's blend of sharp technique and lethal strikes is ahead of his years in the sport. He'll be too much for Matthews, resulting in a likely addition to his highlight reel.
Pick: Delgado
It took far too long for Julia Avila to reach the UFC. When she did, fate had other plans when she suffered multiple injuries and lost several years to motherhood. But there was a time when Avila looked like a future bantamweight title contender. Her volume and relentless pressure was once akin to an absurd combination of Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. That's the comparison I always made, anyway. Let's just say she lived up to her "Raging Panda" nickname.
Still, I struggle to pick Avila in her return against an intriguing prospect in Jacqueline Cavalcanti, given Avila's lack of Octagon time in recent years. However, the oddsmakers have their lines unbelievably wrong in that fight. Avila should be the underdog, but the disparity between +500 to -700 is wild.
Outside of that one, Angela Hill and Ketlen Souza meet in a strawweight crossroads fight. There's a theme with this event, isn't there?
Quick picks
Ketlen Souza (-110) def. Angela Hill (-110)
Jared Gordon (-300) def. Mashrabjon Ruziboev (+250)
Rafael Estevam (-500) def. Jesus Santos Aguilar (+360)
Gabriel Bonfim (-210) def. Khaos Williams (+170)
Vince Morales (+135) def. Elijah Smith (-165)
Valter Walker (-235) def. Don'Tale Mayes (+195)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-700) def. Julia Avila (+500)