Did Russia Lose Top Secret Space Nuke Satellite? What We Know

Newsweek

28-04-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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A satellite launched by Russia, which the U.S. has said is linked to a nuclear anti-satellite weapon program, is no longer functioning correctly, it has been reported.
The Cosmos 2553 satellite appears to have been spinning out of control over the past year, according to Reuters, citing Doppler radar data from space-tracking firm LeoLabs and optical data from Slingshot Aerospace.
The satellite has been at the center of U.S. allegations that Russia has been developing a nuclear weapon that can destroy satellite networks. However, Moscow has denied that such a program exists. It was launched on February 5, 2022, by the Russian Aerospace Forces, a branch of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told Newsweek that it could be just a research and development satellite, which probably completed its mission around a month after launch, and "tiny" changes in its orbit had been detected.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
Why It Matters
House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner, who warned in June 2024 about Russia's nuclear anti-satellite weapons program, is among U.S. officials who have raised the alarm about Cosmos 2553. Reports that the satellite is spinning uncontrollably add to intrigue about Moscow's alleged space weapon efforts.
What To Know
On February 5, 2022, 20 days before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Cosmos 2553 was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia's northern Arkhangelsk region and was delivered into orbit by a Soyuz-2.1a rocket.
Russia's armed forces announced that the purpose of the mission was to test how the satellite's instruments and systems handled radiation and heavy charged particles.
But U.S. officials linked it to a program aimed at developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon (ASAT), which could destroy satellite networks.
While Moscow views SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation as a legitimate military target because of their battlefield use by Ukraine, Russia has denied it is developing such a weapon. It says the satellite is for research purposes.
In April 2024, Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at strengthening the 1967 Outer Space Treaty barring nuclear weapons in space.
Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia during the launch of the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite on April 25, 2018. It was also the launch site of the Cosmos 2553 satellite,
Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia during the launch of the Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite on April 25, 2018. It was also the launch site of the Cosmos 2553 satellite,Errant Movements
The Cosmos 2553 has been in orbit some 1,100 miles above Earth, in a hotspot of cosmic radiation that communications satellites typically avoid, Reuters said.
The satellite is potentially carrying a "dummy warhead" and, in testing new technologies, Moscow may have placed it in a remote orbit to avoid monitoring, according to the annual Threat Assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
However, LeoLabs detected in November what it said looked like errant movements by the satellite.
Slingshot, whose telescope network has been tracking the satellite since its launch, also detected movements in May 2024 that showed the object's brightness had become variable, indicating a potential tumble.
The CSIS said observations indicated that the satellite was no longer operational, although Slingshot said recent observations showed the object had stabilized.
U.S. Space Command is also aware of a change in Cosmos 2553's altitude, according to Reuters, although it did not comment further.
McDowell, from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, posted on X, formerly Twitter, about how the orbit height of Kosmos-2553 had changed over time by less than one kilometer for the satellite.
Here's the orbit height of Kosmos-2553 vs time, showing some tiny (less than 1 km) altitude changes. pic.twitter.com/rrGZnoWXGo — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) April 25, 2025
He told Newsweek he did not have access to optical variation data, which could confirm or refute whether Moscow had lost control of the object, but said there had been "tiny" changes to its orbit.
He said it was likely a research and development satellite that had completed its mission within a month or so of launch. Even if it were linked to a weapons program, having the satellite die would not be a big deal for Russia, he added.
What People Are Saying
CSIS Space Threat Assessment: "Based upon persistent radar monitoring by LeoLabs of Cosmos-2553, there is high confidence it has been tumbling since mid-November 2024 This observation strongly suggests the satellite is no longer operational."
The global telescope network Slingshot noted that "the object's brightness became variable, indicating a potential tumble."
Jonathan McDowell, astrophysicist and editor of Jonathan's Space Report, told Newsweek: "It has made only tiny changes to its orbit. I suspect this is just a research and development satellite, which probably completed its mission within a month or so of launch.
"Even if it is related to a weapons program, I don't think having the satellite die now would be a big deal for them."
What Happens Next
Russia, China and the U.S. continue to invest in military space capabilities as concerns grow about how technologies could have hostile military uses.
The CSIS report said that Chinese and Russian satellites in both low and geostationary Earth orbits are developing more advanced maneuvering capabilities, which can be used for space warfighting and may alarm the U.S. and its allies.