Will cuts to NOAA affect hurricane forecasts this season? Former NWS directors share concerns

Yahoo

06-05-2025

With the 2025 hurricane season less than a month away, former directors of the National Weather Service are warning cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could lead to "loss of life."
The season is expected to be above normal, according to predictions released so far.
More than 880 workers were cut from NOAA in February, which includes the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and another 1,000 employees were later included in President Trump's plan to cut costs in fiscal 2026.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
In an open letter to the American people, five former National Weather Service directors said their "worst nightmare" is the cuts will lead to "needless loss of life."
➤ Weather forecasting agency NOAA to cut another 1,000 workers, reports say
Some forecast offices might be so short-staffed they have to function only part-time, they warned.
Another open letter was sent to Congress and the Trump administration on May 1 from the Union of Concerned Scientists. It, too, expressed "great alarm" on the impact cuts would have on NOAA.
Here's what the former National Weather Service directors said.
Who wrote the letter warning NOAA cuts could lead to 'needless loss of life?'
The open letter from five National Weather Service leaders was written by:
Louis Uccellini, NWS director 2013-2022
Jack Hayes, NWS director 2007-2012
Brigadier Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret), NWS director 2004-2007
Brigadier Gen. John J. Kelly Jr., USAF (Ret), NWS director 1998-2004
E.W. (Joe) Friday, Colonel USAF (Ret), NWS director 1988-1997
'We cannot let this happen:' Highlights from the letter
"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life," the five former NWS directors said in the letter.
"We know that's a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines — and by the people who depend on their efforts.
➤ NOAA fires, then rehires crew members who flew planes into hurricanes
"As former directors of the National Weather Service, we know firsthand what it takes to make accurate forecasts happen and we stand united against the loss of staff and resources at NWS and are deeply concerned about NOAA as a whole."
Highlights from the letter said impacts and concerns associated with the cuts include:
impact weather forecasting
current staffing levels are down more than 10%, "just as we head into the busiest time for severe storm predictions like tornadoes and hurricanes"
NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services.
Some forecast offices will be so short-staffed that they may be forced to go to part-time services.
fewer electronic technicians, who are responsible for maintaining the critical NEXRAD radars.
forecasts are depended upon by pilots, ships, farmers, dam and reservoir operators, fishermen, tourism and recreational boating communities.
Reactions to the NWS directors' letter
The letter "lays out as clearly as any I've seen to date, just how these cuts, in practical terms, ARE and WILL IMPACT the agency's critical functions moving forward in time," said First Alert Weather.
Ria Persad, founder and chair of StatWeather, posted on Linkedin, "Although I do not believe that these cuts were executed with prudence and care, I do know that there is a debate going on as to the line between private and public services. Some would argue that the private sector can get the job done better and cheaper. What should have happened is more support for public-private partnerships, similar to the Defense industry, not wholesale disruption. Cooperation is the key, not dismantling."
On Reddit, r/NOAA, Glass_Strawberry4324 wrote, "I appreciate you guys at NOAA so much. ... You have always been extremely accurate and I just wanted to say that the work you do is indeed absolutely heroic and essential. I don't live in a tornado-prone area, but we do get hurricanes. I am so scared about the season this year..."
Union of Concerned Scientists expresses 'great alarm' over NOAA cuts. "We write to you with great alarm as we watch the critically important science conducted at many US agencies, institutions, and universities come under increasing assault.
"NOAA is the primary provider of critical, widely used forecasts for a range of extreme weather events, includinghurricanes, heatwaves, and drought," the letter from the Union of Concerned Scientists said. "This vital information is then used by emergency responders, policymakers, the private sector and the public to help prepare and protect communities, critical infrastructure and commerce."
Read letter from former NWS directors in its entirety
NOAA 'remains dedicated to its mission'
In March, after a round of government layoffs, NOAA said in a statement to USA TODAY it "remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience."
"We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warning pursuant to our public safety mission," the statement concluded.
What does the NOAA do?
NOAA has sweeping responsibilities for safeguarding lives through monitoring and forecasting the nation's most violent storms, daily weather and long-term climate. Its agencies and employees have broad scientific duties that include collecting, storing and sharing data, maintaining a research fleet of satellites, ships and aircraft, as well as managing the nation's ocean and marine species and saltwater fishing.
➤ What is NOAA? Federal weather, climate agency hit with job cuts has a big mission.
Among the agencies that employ its more than 6,700 engineers and scientists, are the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center and National Marine Fisheries Service.
The National Hurricane Center falls under the National Weather Service.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing tropical outlooks on May 15, highlighting any tropical disturbances showing potential for development.
2025 hurricane season predictions
The National Hurricane Center will release its predictions for the 2025 hurricane season later this month. Early forecasts released so far predict:
AccuWeather: Predicting 2025 could be a year with "volatile hurricanes" and warns storms could rapidly intensify shortly before making landfall.
Named storms: 13 to 18
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6
Colorado State University: Season will be above normal. Florida ranked No. 1 when it came to the probability of a named storm coming within 50 miles, at 92%.
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
WeatherTiger: Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger, said 2025 has a "50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of":
16-21 tropical storms
7-9 hurricanes
3-4 major hurricanes
Hurricane season 2025 names
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea: AN-dree uh
Barry: BAIR-ree
Chantal: shahn-TAHL
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will provide tropical weather coverage as conditions warrant and daily beginning May 15. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And subscribe here.
Contributing: Gabe Hauari, Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA Today Network
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane forecasts: Past NWS directors call out impacts of cuts