Bad news for nervous fliers! Severe turbulence is set to get even WORSE thanks to climate change, scientists say - as they discover a link between 'freak wind gusts' and global warming
It's something that any nervous traveller dreads during a long-haul flight.
But severe turbulence is set to get even worse - with climate change to blame.
That's according to Professor Lance M Leslie and Milton Speer from the University of Technology Sydney, who have discovered a link between 'freak wind gusts' and global warming.
Using machine learning techniques, the pair found that heat and moisture are 'key ingredients' for dangerous wind gusts known as 'downbursts.'
Downbursts can wreak havoc during takeoff and landing, causing planes to dangerously gain or lose altitude.
Based on their findings, the scientists are calling for air safety authorities and airlines to be 'more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.'
'Our research is among the first to detail the heightened climate risk to airlines from thunderstorm microbursts, especially during takeoff and landing,' they explained in an article for The Conversation.
'Airlines and air safety authorities should anticipate more strong microbursts.'
Flying has long been recognised as a safe mode of travel, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per one million flights.
However, in recent months, there have been several reports of planes experiencing extreme turbulence.
In March, five passengers were injured by extreme turbulence that forced a United Express flight to make an emergency landing in Texas.
Then in June, nine people were injured after a Ryanair flight was hit by severe turbulence, with crew and passengers left in tears and the plane forced to make an emergency landing.
Until now, most studies on turbulence have focused on dangers at high-altitude, such as clear air turbulence, and jet stream instability.
In contrast, there has been less research on the dangers of turbulence caused by downbursts at lower altitudes.
In their new study, publihsed in the journal Climate, the researchers turned to machine learning to identify the climate drivers behind these downbursts.
Their results revealed that increased heat and moisture 'spell trouble for planes'.
'Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere,' they explained.
'That's because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.
'The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.
'Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms.'
The main problem with thunderstorms for planes is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low altitudes, according to the experts.
In particular, small downbursts measuring just a few kilometres wide - dubbed 'microbursts' - can cause abrupt changes in wind speed and direction.
For unlucky passengers, this results in turbulence that 'suddenly moves the plane in all directions.'
Somewhat unsurprisingly, smaller planes are particularly susceptible to this type of low-altitude turbulence.
'Small planes with 4–50 passenger seats are more vulnerable to the strong, even extreme, wind gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts,' the experts added.
Worryingly, as temperatures aroung the globe continue to rise, microbursts are only going to get worse.
'A warming climate increases low- to mid-level troposphere water vapor, typically transported from high sea-surface temperature regions,' the pair added in their study.
'Consequently, the future occurrence and intensity of destructive wind gusts from wet microburst thunderstorms are expected to increase.'
WHY DO STORMS AND HOT WEATHER CAUSE DISRUPTION TO TRAINS AND PLANES?
HOW HOT WEATHER AFFECTS AIRCRAFT
Aircraft components begin to overheat and become damaged in extreme temperatures, with seals softening or melting.
If temperatures exceed 47°C (116°F), planes are grounded as some aircraft manufacturers can't guarantee the necessary engine propulsion.
Aeroplanes fly because the speed of the aircraft causes ambient air to travel over the wings creating lift.
When the flow of air is disrupted, the wing loses, or gains, lift.
Hot air is less dense than cold air, which means aircraft require more engine power to generate the same thrust and lift as they would in cooler climes.
The warmer it gets, the less density there is in the air, which in turn results in less upwind for the wings.
Cumulonimus clouds, which occur during thunderstorms, can also be problematic as they are associated with heavy and sudden down pours of rain.
These clouds are often caused by periods of very hot weather.
Thunderstorms are a challenge for a pilot because there are several dangers like wind shear, turbulence, rain, icing and lightning.
HOW HEAT AFFECTS TRAINS
Thousands of miles of steel tracks cross the UK, much of which is exposed to sunlight.
Tracks in direct sunshine can be as much as 20°C (36°F) hotter than the ambient air temperature according to Network Rail, which manages Britain's railway infrastructure.
Heatwaves can cause points failures and signal disturbances, while in some places the tracks have buckled under the heat.
As temperature rises, the steel rail absorbs heat and expands, causing it to curve, or buckle.
The forces the temperature change provokes pushes and pulls the track out of shape.
Buckled tracks need to be repaired before trains can run again, leading to disruption.
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