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With a strong mandate, heat is on PM to improve investment landscape for Aussie gas
Anthony Albanese's second term showing positive signs for Australia's gas sector However, reform of approvals process is unlikely Investment still occurring in Queensland with Shell reported to be bringing in high spec rig Australia's gas sector has been in the doldrums for some time now thanks to a decade-long period of underinvestment caused by regulatory uncertainty, approval delays, policy interventions and unattractive investment climate. However, the strong mandate Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is bringing into his second term could deliver changes to revive the sector, particularly at a time where there is growing concern about gas supply constraints on the East Coast. Australian Energy Market Operator chief executive officer Daniel Westerman said earlier in 2025 that flexible gas-powered generation 'will remain the ultimate backstop in a high-renewable power system." 'Gas, alongside batteries and pumped hydro, will enable higher renewable contributions and support reliability as coal-fired power stations retire,' he added. Speaking to Stockhead, MST Access head of energy research Saul Kavonic said there were some positive signs, one of which is Queensland Senator Murray Watt replacing Tanya Plibersek in the high-profile environment and water portfolio. 'I think we'll see less politically driven holdups of approvals,' he noted. Kavonic adds that we have been seeing rhetoric, including from the Prime Minister, highlighting the role for gas. 'A lot of what's driving this is under nearly every scenario going forward where they see coal exiting or retiring from the grid, the need for gas capacity increases,' he said. 'What I think the government has realised ... (is) that gas capacity is actually going to be one of the biggest logjams to delivering any of the pathways for the NEM going forward. 'That's why you're seeing moves from Victorian Energy Minister, Lily D'Ambrosio, who really didn't want to even talk about gas for the last several years, now urgently wants to have taxpayers fund an import terminal to solve the gas capacity issue.' Managing expectations However, Kavonic was quick to douse hopes there will be major changes, saying reform of the approvals process is unlikely. While the delays faced by the North West Shelf extension was due to politically held-up approvals, Kavonic said, there was a broader issue where approvals for smaller projects take years rather than months like they used to. 'That's not the Environment Minister deliberately standing on a hose for political agenda,' he said. 'This is just an issue with a lot of inertia and, in some cases, hostility within departments, which just sees them sitting on things needlessly for a long period of time.' Kavonic also noted that the industry continued to view New South Wales and Victoria as being hostile to gas developments, which diminishes the appetite for investment. He highlighted Minister D'Ambrosio's apparent hostility to gas in her social media. 'If you're a gas company, why would you deploy money in Victoria if that's all the noise that you are getting out of the government.' Kavonic also noted that while Santos' (ASX:STO) Narrabri coal seam gas project had cleared some initial hurdles – including the recent ruling by the Native Title Tribunal that the New South Wales State Government can lease the land to Santos, it still had a lot more hurdles to clear regarding pipeline access. 'Narrabri is quite unique, it's got a much stronger local level of opposition there, which predates a lot of the more climate minded opposition we've seen to gas over the last five years,' he added. More generally, he said the language from the Labor Government, particularly post the election, has dramatically improved and become more pragmatic. 'But industry wants to see actions to match the words before they start deploying capital in a material way again.' What needs to be done? Kavonic says there are three things the government can do to really improve the gas sector's fortunes, the biggest of which is to streamline the approvals process. 'The government needs to put in place a clear one-stop shop for approvals, streamline the process, and provide a very clear and more rapid timeframe for a decision," he said. The second is to deliver on its commitment to reform the offshore consultation process, which Kavonic said was held up when a deal with the Greens emerged as a potential hurdle. 'I think industry is going to want to see that reform happen. It would be a very important indicator from the government that they are actually being more pragmatic," he said. 'There should be a lot more room to be pragmatic. First of all, the Greens have been completely destroyed in the lower house and while they still hold the balance of power in the Senate, they are also in complete disarray. 'If there was ever an opportunity to get something done it should be sooner rather than later.' The last area relates to the current review underway on East Coast gas policy regarding pricing. 'Industry really wants to see a sign from government that the interventions are going to stop,' Kavonic said. 'Pulling back from more draconian East Coast interventions would also be an important signal but everything right now suggests that they're going to go the other way and toughen up those approvals and potentially impose a form of reservation policy on the East Coast. "When you give contradictory signals uncertainty remains high and people don't want to deploy investment.' Gas investment bright spots It isn't all doom and gloom though. Kavonic points out there's still investment activity with Shell bringing in a heavy duty, high-spec rig to drill the highly prospective Taroom Trough in Queensland. The supermajor typically only makes major investments in upstream exploration when it is sure of its returns. Kavonic thinks increased discussions of LNG imports will eventually be good for local developers in Queensland and gas storage solutions, as increased development of assets to pipe gas from north to south looms as a better option than LNG. Queensland has also flagged its interest in attracting more upstream gas investment with the Crisafulli government releasing nine new areas across the Cooper/Eromanga and Bowen/Surat Basins in late May. 'The best way to bring down energy prices is to have more energy in the market, and that starts with exploration,' State Minister for Natural Resources and Mines Dale Last said. 'These steps are about unlocking new supply, securing an investment pipeline and getting the right policy settings in place so Queensland can lead the way on energy security. 'Unscientific decisions made by the southern states have left Queensland carrying the load for the East Coast gas market. We need a regulatory framework that supports new development, instead of holding it back.' Gas companies With Queensland still keen on gas, it is no surprise that some of the most active gas players on the ASX are focused on that state. QPM Energy (ASX:QPM) for one has been taking steps to progress its producing Moranbah gas project further. Since acquiring Moranbah in 2023, the company has increased the project's 2P reserve position by 166PJ to 435PJ (at April 2025), making its 315PJ of uncontracted gas reserves one of the largest uncontracted gas portfolios in the Eastern Australian market. At current production of ~10-11PJ/year, the company has ~40 years of 2P reserve life. It recently executed new funding agreements with foundation customer Dyno Nobel that includes a prepayment facility of up to $40m for gas delivered from April 2026 to March 2033. This adds to the existing $120m Development Funding Facility (DFF) which is not repaid in cash but rather amortises as QPM delivers gas into a gas sales agreement with Dyno Nobel. QPM is currently finalising planning for a new production well drilling program targeted to begin later this year to be funded under the DFF. It also expects to see improved economics from July when a new, much lower cost structure under the new contracts reached with Townsville Power Station and North Queensland Gas Pipeline kicks in. The project currently produces 22-24 terajoules of gas per day from more than 125 wells. Existing infrastructure includes over 500km of gas-gathering and water pipelines, a 150km electricity distribution network, 64TJ/d of compression capacity, the 160 megawatt Townsville power station and the 12.8MW Moranbah power station. Over in the Taroom Trough, companies such as Omega Oil & Gas (ASX:OMA) and Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR) have seen significant results from their respective projects. This lends further credence to the potential of the Taroom Trough that Shell seems so keen to pursue. Meanwhile, Comet Ridge (ASX:COI) holds a 57.14% interest in the Mahalo Gas Project joint venture with Santos, which has a proved and probable (2P) gas reserves of 266 petajoules and a further 315PJ in best estimate (2C) contingent gas resources. Santos is currently progressing a front-end engineering and design study for Mahalo while pipeline partner Jemena is pushing ahead with FEED for a 10 inch pipeline over about 80km that will connect the field with key pipeline infrastructure. The company also holds the Mahalo North and East projects that could feed gas into the Mahalo hub. Despite the concerns facing projects in the southern states, Advent Energy – an unlisted company that's 36% owned by BPH Energy (ASX:BPH) – is seeking a judicial review to affirm its PEP 11 permit in the offshore Sydney Basin. Advent continues to maintain that the permit is in force with respect to matters such as reporting, payment of rents and the various provisions of the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act 2006. Its interest in PEP 11 is due to its belief that the permit could host multiple trillion cubic feet of gas, which could go a long way towards meeting East Coast gas demand.
