UFC Baku predictions, odds, full card picks: Will Jamahal Hill or Khalil Rountree Jr. shine in Azerbaijan?

Yahoo

4 hours ago

UFC Baku has arrived with the potential to deliver some bangers.
Saturday afternoon's main event serves as the lone light heavyweight contest of the 12-fight lineup, with former champion Jamahal Hill returning after his chaotic clash against Jiri Prochazka this past January. Standing in the way of "Sweet Dreams" is recent title challenger Khalil Rountree Jr., who hasn't fought since coming up short opposite the former two-division champion Alex Pereira in October.
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The matched was initially booked to headline April's UFC Kansas City show until Hill suffered an injury. Now, Azerbaijan's first-ever UFC event gets treated to an expectedly thrilling five-round firefight.
Lightweights occupy the co-main event slot, as Rafael Fiziev looks to snap his three-fight skid by halting a surging contender on the rise, Ignacio Bahomondes.
This weekend's lineup certainly plays to its location, lacking a wide range of broader star power but featuring a cast of characters sure to get the Azerbaijan crowd hyped, especially if RIZIN's 2023 event in Baku is anything to go by.
👑 UFC Baku's lineup Crown grade: C+. 👑
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Khalil Rountree Jr. hopes his first title fight wasn't his last.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
205 pounds: Jamahal Hill (+100) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (-120)
Stylistically, we really are in for a treat with UFC Baku's main event. This is one of those good old-fashioned kickboxing matches disguised as an MMA fight.
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Rountree is currently in that spot that a fighter very rarely falls into, where it can be argued that his best career performance was in a loss. I still think the masterclass against Eryk Anders is one of the single greatest performances ever seen in this sport, but what Rountree did against Pereira was undeniably impressive.
The point is, Rountree gave one of the greatest strikers of all time all he could handle, and won rounds, putting the then-champion in trouble. He seems to have finally put things together, regarding keeping momentum and showing up in fights, despite some lackluster outputs in previous losses, or even the split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby.
I know we shouldn't give in to MMA math, but consider that Hill fell short to "Poatan" in just over three minutes, with nothing resembling Rountree's success up until that point. Hill is in another one of those unique positions, where he seems to see his talent discredited because of his personality. Think similarly to Colby Covington in his prime. In reality, Hill is a dangerous and capable striker with solid boxing. He reacts well to situations in tight, sneaking in uppercuts or knees on the break.
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Rountree is the more versatile and lethal striker overall, possessing nasty Muay Thai chops. Both men pack solid power that can shut out either's lights, but honestly, Hill's wear and tear might be catching up to him.
The former champion is 0-2 after his Achilles tear and hasn't appeared to have the same mobility since then. In the Prochazka loss, he even sported the double kneepad look. That's never a good sign, especially for a 34-year-old light heavyweight who's up against a man who will most certainly attack those legs. (Modestas Bukauskas says hello.)
Hill's best-case scenario will be to take Rountree down and utilize his underrated top control. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening unless it comes after he gets touched up first. Rountree gets back in the win column in Baku.
Pick: Rountree
155 pounds: Rafael Fiziev (+105) vs. Ignacio Bahomondes (-125)
This is a moment of truth fight for Bahomondes.
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The Chilean sensation has certainly leveled up in his last three fights, finishing all three opponents impressively. Still just 27, Bahomondes can launch himself into that upper echelon of huge lightweight fights with a win over the perennial contender Fiziev.
That's going to be much easier said than done, though. Yes, Fiziev is on a three-fight skid, but it's incredibly deceiving on paper. Two of the losses were hard-fought battles with Justin Gaethje, with an injury TKO loss to Mateusz Gamrot between them. Oh, and the Gaethje rematch was also on short notice. This guy is no slouch, and the oddsmakers are setting up "Attaman" for a "Y'all must have forgot" moment.
Bahomondes has become supremely dynamic, and that should go without saying. He has more ways to win than Fiziev, as he displayed with that gorgeous triangle choke on Jalin Turner in his last time out. Ultimately, there are just levels to this game, and Fiziev is as talented and technical as a striker can get atop the lightweight ranks. It's hard to say how much size will play a factor in this matchup, but in terms of competition level, Fiziev has the edge and has still performed valiantly in his recent losses.
Bahomondes has shown all the signs of being the future at lightweight, I'm just not sure he's there yet. More so, I don't think Fiziev is "done" as a contender just yet.
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Pick: Fiziev
265 pounds: Curtis Blaydes (-275) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+220)
The UFC was not going to let this fight get away from either man, having landed on this third (and hopefully final) booking.
Curtis Blaydes has unfortunately fallen into the ultimate heavyweight gatekeeper role, and you can see it here with the promotion sending a debutant his way. Sure, Rizvan Kuniev has been on a solid run, going undefeated in 12 straight. But for Blaydes, the man who last challenged for Tom Aspinall's interim crown, it's a wild shift in matchmaking.
Outside of Derrick Lewis, Blaydes has legitimately only lost against the elite at heavyweight, all of whom have been thunderous knockout artists. (That was primarily the case with that Lewis loss.) Kuniev isn't exactly that. He has power, but to say it will be enough is hard to assess, and you almost have to assume the damage has just caught up to the 34-year-old Blaydes.
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A win for Kuniev theoretically would launch him directly into title contention. Ultimately, the often superior wrestling of "Razor" Blaydes should be too much.
Pick: Blaydes
UFC fans are about to be treated to one of lightweight's most exciting talents in Tofiq Musayev. (Photo by)
(Masashi Hara via Getty Images)
155 pounds: Tofiq Musayev (+145) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-175)
It would have been an absolute travesty for the UFC to debut in Azerbaijan without the country's all-time best fighter, Tofiq Musayev.
The addition of the former RIZIN lightweight grand prix champion to the roster is wildly exciting for those aware of his talent. Musayev has been an absolute destroyer and son of the violence gods since he found his stride in 2015 and went on an 11-fight knockout string that bled into his RIZIN run.
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Musayev has only been stopped twice, dating back to 2015, when he fought the likes of reigning RIZIN lightweight champion Roberto "Satoshi" de Souza and former top Bellator contender Alexandr Shabliy. Musayev rebounded in 2023 when he returned to the RIZIN ring, taking out Akira Okada and Koji Takeda in style. The latter, which was in the first major MMA event in his home country, blew the roof off the building.
The all-action, aggressive nature of Musayev will be met with an insanely tough Myktybek Orolbai. Against Mateusz Rebecki in his last fight, Orolbai left bits and pieces of himself in the Octagon, losing a split-decision in one of 2024's best bouts. Orolbai has no quit in him and probably edges out Musayev in the grappling department, but competition-wise, Musayev has fought the superior opposition.
The former RIZIN star is coming off that two-year layoff, though. So there are many intriguing layers to this fight, and it will surely deliver chaos, considering its environment. It's just now-or-never for Musayev, and he'll test if Orolbai is even the same fighter after the Rebecki war.
Pick: Musayev
155 pounds: Nazim Sadykhov (-450) vs. Nikolas Motta (+350)
It feels like we get at least one showcase fight per main card for every UFC Fight Night in 2025, doesn't it? At least, that's how the matchmakers plan it out, anyway.
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Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta isn't quite on that scale, but this is a highly favorable bout for the surging Sadykhov, who is undefeated since his MMA debut in 2018.
Another Azerbaijani receiving a big homecoming, Sadykhov has been knocking out opponents left and right. Outside of his first loss, Motta has exclusively lost by knockout, and the in-your-face fury of Sadykhov doesn't bode well for him unless he can counter attacks with well-timed takedowns.
Simply put, it's Sadykhov's fight to lose.
Pick: Sadykhov
145 pounds: Muhammad Naimov (-275) vs. Bogdan Grad (+220)
The opening main card bout of UFC Baku has a broader spread in the odds than I'd have expected. There's still plenty left to learn about Muhammad Naimov and Bogdan Grad. But this matchup should be about who controls the chaos better, and for Grad, his recklessness could be his downfall.
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Outside of a tough loss to the also super-talented Felipe Lima last year, Naimov has been on a good run with that as his lone loss in eight fights. On the other side, Grad will ride a four-fight win streak into the bout, consisting of three knockouts and one split-decision.
Naimov's game is just more refined than his counterpart's. Most importantly, he's not as wild, which should allow him to take advantage of the various openings he's presented with. (Just ask Jamie Mullarkey.)
Pick: Naimov
It's "Iron Turtle" time for Jun Yong Park. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
Preliminary Notes
Oban Elliott and the "Iron Turtle" Jun Yong Park? I don't know what more you could ask for to close out a slate of prelims.
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Seriously, the final two lead-in bouts should deliver and set the table for the second half of the evening. For Elliott, in particular, you'd have to think he'll get a decent step up in competition with a win. I'm also curious to see how Tagir Ulanbeko vs. Azat Maksum plays out, but the other three fights are just kind of there. I had high hopes for Irina Alekseeva upon her arrival in not just the UFC, but the U.S. in general, as she debuted in Bellator in 2021 before moving over to her current fighting home.
Despite being 1-1, Alekseeva's kneebar win over Stephanie Egger came after she missed weight by five pounds and then looked awful against Melissa Mullins, who fights right after her at UFC Baku. I suppose the oddsmakers themselves are going full MMA math with this one, favoring Alekseeva so drastically because Mullins finished Klaudia Sygala in her UFC debut last November.
Man, I did not expect to backhandedly praise Mullins this much in this preview.
Quick picks: