Kenya shilling steady in subdued market activity
NAIROBI: The Kenyan shilling remained stable in early trade on Monday, with market activity subdued, traders said.
As of 0705 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.00/50, unchanged from Friday's closing rate.
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Oil prices jumped more than 7% on Friday, trading near multi-month highs after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about disrupted oil supplies. Brent crude futures jumped $5.1, or around 7.4%, to $74.46 a barrel by 0843 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $5.1, or 7.5%, at $73.15 a barrel after hitting a high of $77.62, its highest level since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz was damaged, the country's atomic energy organisation said in a statement, but investigations have not shown any radioactive or chemical contamination outside the site. The primary concern was around whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye. The key waterway had been at risk of impact from increased regional volatility previously but had not been affected so far, Hvalbye said. There was also no impact to oil flow in the region so far, he added. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel. Under a worst case scenario, JPMorgan analysts said on Thursday that closing the strait or a retaliatory response from major oil producing countries in the region could lead to prices surging to the $120-130 a barrel range, nearly double their current base case forecast. The $10 a barrel price gain in the past three days had yet to reflect any drop in Iranian oil production, let alone an escalation that could involve disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. Oil prices drop as traders gauge ME tensions US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Israeli strikes against Iran a 'unilateral action' and said Washington was not involved while also urging Tehran not to target US interests or personnel in the region. 'The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week - our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance,' said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad. 'Fundamentals show nearly all Iranian exports going to China, so Chinese discounted purchases would be most at risk here. OPEC+ spare capacity can provide the stabilizing force,' he added. In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc. 'A key question is whether the Iranian retaliation will be limited to Israel or if the leadership will seek to internationalize the cost of tonight's action by targeting bases and critical economic infrastructure across the wider region,' RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note.
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Oil prices soar over 9% after Israel strikes Iran
Listen to article Oil prices surged more than 9% on Friday, hitting their highest in almost five months after Israel attacked Iran, dramatically escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising worries about disrupted oil supplies. Brent crude futures jumped $6.29, or 9.07%, to $75.65 a barrel by 0315 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $6.43, or 9.45%, at $74.47 a barrel after hitting a high of $77.62, the loftiest since January 21. Friday's gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, causing energy prices to spike. Israel said it targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. "This has elevated geopolitical uncertainty significantly and requires the oil market to price in a larger risk premium for any potential supply disruptions," ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note. Several oil traders in Singapore said it was still too early to say if the strike would affect Middle East oil shipments, as it would depend on how Iran retaliates and if the US would intervene. "It's too early to tell, but I think the market is worried about shutting off of the Strait of Hormuz," one of the traders said. MST Marquee senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic said the conflict would need to escalate to the point of Iranian retaliation on oil infrastructure in the region before oil supply is materially impacted. He added that Iran could hinder up to 20 million barrels per day of oil supply via attacks on infrastructure or limiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in an extreme scenario. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Israel will receive "harsh punishment" following Friday's attack that he said killed several military commanders. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday called Israel's strikes against Iran a "unilateral action" and said Washington was not involved, while also urging Tehran not to target US interests or personnel in the region. "Iran has announced an emergency and is preparing to retaliate, which raises the risk of not just disruptions but of contagion in other neighbouring oil-producing nations too," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "Although Trump has shown reluctance to participate, US involvement could further raise concerns." In other markets, stocks dived in early Asian trade, led by a selloff in US futures, while investors scurried to safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.
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UAE markets fall after Israel strikes Iran
DUBAI: Markets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) fell in early trade on Friday after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran. Israel said on Friday it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders and that this was the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Dubai's main share index was down 5.1% in early trade and Abu Dhabi's main index fell 3.5% at open before recovering some ground. The two indexes were down 2.5% and 1.8% respectively by around 0640 GMT. Dubai stocks eases on profit-taking Air Arabia shares in Dubai fell 7.6%, as airlines cleared out of the airspace over Israel, Iran, Iraq and Jordan after the attacks on targets in Iran, scrambling to divert and cancel flights. Oil prices surged more than 6%, hitting their highest in almost five months and the largest intraday moves for both Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude contracts since 2022. The rising tensions in the region also drove investors towards safe-haven assets, with gold prices climbing to their highest levels in nearly two months.
