Yankees bold predictions: Aaron Judge hits 60 home runs, Cody Bellinger opts out
'You can't predict baseball, Suzyn.'
This year, New York Yankees legendary radio voice John Sterling won't be around to utter that catchphrase to color commentator Suzyn Waldman, who's a legend in her own right. Sterling has retired, and veteran broadcaster Dave Sims has taken his place.
Still, the point stands. Baseball is too wild, too random. Forecasting what may happen at Yankee Stadium or any of the 30 ballparks across the league is a fool's errand.
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So, call me a fool. I'm here with six predictions for the 2025 Yankees season.
But before we get to this year's batch of predictions, let's look at how we fared last year. For fun, let's assign an Arnold Schwarzenegger movie quote to each outcome, since Thursday's Opening Day at Yankee Stadium might kick off a blockbuster season.
We said: Yankees will sign Juan Soto for $600 million.
What happened: Yikes. Soto took $765 million to move to Queens, of all places.
Arnold says: 'Hasta la vista, baby.' — 'Terminator 2'
We said: The Yankees will use only 19 injured list stints.
What happened: Nope. They had 23 players make 27 total appearances on the IL.
Arnold says: 'Rubber baby buggy bumpers!'— 'Last Action Hero'
We said: Anthony Rizzo will win Comeback Player of the Year.
What happened: Oh, no. Rizzo had perhaps his worst season (-0.2 fWAR), and he doesn't have a job right now.
Arnold says: 'Get to the chopper!' — 'Predator'
We said: Luis Gil will have the second-highest fWAR for all Yankees pitchers.
What happened: Bingo. Gil totaled a 2.2 fWAR — second only to Nestor Cortes Jr. — and won the American League Rookie of the Year.
Arnold says: 'I'll be back.' — 'Terminator'
We said: Austin Wells will be a Rookie of the Year finalist.
What happened: Boom. Wells finished third in the AL ROY vote.
Arnold says: 'Are these all your lunches? You mean you eat other people's lunches? Stop it!' — Kindergarten Cop
We said: Giancarlo Stanton plays 130 games, hits 35-plus home runs.
What happened: Not bad. Stanton played 117 games and hit 27 home runs.
Arnold says: 'Come with me if you want to live.' — 'Terminator 2'
We'll call that going 2-for-6 — not a bad day at the plate.
Now, onto this year's predictions …
Let's get a little more precise: 60 home runs for Aaron Judge, 30 for Cody Bellinger, 25 for Paul Goldschmidt. Look, I expect Judge to have another monster year, especially considering he knows how important it is for him to stay healthy with all the injuries the Yankees have already suffered. Bellinger remembers that the first pro stadium he hit a home run in was Yankee Stadium in 2011 or 2012, when he was still in high school playing for a Yankees scout team, and he'll have his ex-Yankees infielder father, Clay, in attendance on Opening Day to start this journey. Goldschmidt had a cranky back in the middle of spring training, but he says he felt miles better at the plate this spring than he did last year.
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Expect a big year from Bellinger, who knows the short porch is calling his name and who will be motivated to do better than the $25 million remaining on his deal for next season. The Yankees didn't trade with the Houston Astros for Kyle Tucker this winter because they didn't want to give up Gil (plus more) and possibly run into another Soto situation, in which they surrender a young, high-end starter for a one-year rental. But this winter, they almost surely will chase Tucker, one of the best lefty hitters in the game, who's set to become a free agent after this season.
Max Fried was as advertised this spring, honing his seven-pitch mix and picking the mind of Yankees legend Ron Guidry on how to succeed in New York City. Without Cole, Fried becomes the Yankees' No. 1, and for the $218 million deal they gave him this offseason, that's not an unfair request. In Atlanta, Fried had a reputation for being cool under pressure. With an improved Yankees defense behind him, he should be a ground ball machine, working lots of quick innings and pitching deep into games. Side prediction: His dog, Apollo Fried, becomes a mini celebrity.
Wells mashed this spring, and while he wasn't necessarily expecting this winter to be without mentor Jose Trevino, the Yankees believe Wells is prepared to jump into the starting role without a safety net. Plus, he took to leading off with aplomb. He led off in 15 of the 16 games he played and homered six times. Already having proven he's one of the game's better pitch framers, Wells will get it done on both sides of the ball and help carry the Yankees' offense early in the absence of Stanton.
It might be his last chance. What if some form of the automated ball-strike system comes to the majors next regular season? What if, starting in 2026, he gets fewer chances to stick it to umpires who are sticking it to his 'savages in the box' because the closest calls get flipped via a challenge system? It might be now or never for Boone, one of the most colorful umpire battlers in the game. His career high for ejections in a season is seven. We're taking the over.
Sorry, Yankees fans. You're going to have to wear losing Soto a little longer. He loves big moments. He loves getting booed. He once soaked in the good energy at Yankee Stadium. He's going to love blasting a home run into the right field short porch in the first inning on May 16, his first time back at his old stomping grounds. When this happens, I will screenshot it, tweet it and be insufferable.
By the way, when all these turn out to be 100 percent accurate, I'm going to have one question for you:
'Who is your daddy and what does he do?'
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