Farage as PM could push independence support close to 60%, poll suggests

South Wales Argus

3 days ago

The survey by Norstat for the Sunday Times, which spoke to 1,007 Scots between May 27 and May 30, showed support for separation currently sits at 54% in Scotland.
But if Reform UK were to win the next general election that figure could near the 60% level some believe should be the tipping point for another referendum.
The figure rose from 50% in the last Norstat poll in January.
Support for independence sits at 54%, according to the poll (Jane Barlow/PA)
The highest that support for independence has reached in recent years is 58%, in an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV News in the early months of the pandemic, as Nicola Sturgeon received plaudits for her handling of Covid-19.
But the increase comes as support for the SNP continued to fall ahead of next year's Holyrood elections, with the party dropping two percentage points in both the constituency and regional list votes to 33% and 28% respectively.
Labour's support rose slightly to 19% in constituencies and 18% in Scotland's regions.
But Reform UK would see a surge, if the poll was to reflect the returns seen next May, with Mr Farage's party jumping to 18% in constituencies and 16% on the list – up two and three percentage points respectively.
Meanwhile the Scottish Tories dropped two points to 13% locally and remained at 15% in the regions.
According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, in projections for the Sunday Times, John Swinney was on track to win an unprecedented fifth term in office for his party next year, securing 54 seats.
Labour would drop to 20 seats, while Reform would win 18 in their first full political test in Scotland.
Meanwhile, the Tories would drop from being the second biggest party to the fourth, with just 17 MSPs, followed by the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on nine.
The poll also looked at Westminster voting intentions, with the SNP recording 31% of the vote, followed by Reform surging into second on 21% and Labour dropping 15 points from last year's election to 20%.
The Conservatives sit at 12%, while 8% said they would vote for the Lib Dems.
But despite leaping into second, Nigel Farage's party would not return a single MP, the polling expert said, with the SNP rising to 30, Labour falling to 16 and the Lib Dems and Tories remaining on six and five respectively.