India's warehouse sector may be slowing gears—but the smart money isn't leaving just yet

Mint

3 hours ago

Mumbai: For investors in India's real estate market, it isn't just office properties and residential developments that are vying for their money but also the more timid warehousing space.
Warehouses emerged as a key investment segment the past 4-5 years driven by strong demand from logistics, e-commerce, manufacturing, and retail occupiers. However, investors are becoming increasingly selective now, prioritizing grade A assets in top-tier cities and favouring tech-enabled and environmentally sustainable warehouses, according to industry participants.
Grade A warehouse stock across India's eight primary markets grew at a compound annual growth rate of 21% over the past five years, reaching 183 million sq.ft. in 2023-24, credit rating agencyIcra said in a July note.
More than 50-55% of this stock is backed by global investors such as US private equity firm Blackstone, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC, Singapore-headquartered GLP, and Hong Kong-based ESR Group.
But this phase of high returns may be over as India's warehousing sector enters a period of more normalised and stable performance, according to industry experts.
While the domestic warehousing sector saw exponential growth during the e-commerce boom with companies like Xander Group and Indospace expanding significantly as demand surged, the market is now more consolidated, said Shivam Bajaj, founder and chief executive officer of Avener Capital, a boutique investment bank focussed on the infrastructure and energy sectors.
'So the growth is going to be fairly stable," Bajaj said, adding that warehouse companies are expanding with minimal capital expenditure and he does not see another big spike coming. '(India's warehouse space) will grow at a steady 7-10% annually. That earlier jump was closely tied to the rapid rise of e-commerce, which has now matured."
Even so, India's warehouse space has seen some recent big-ticket investments.
In March, NDR InvIT Trust bought a 900,000 sq.ft. warehouse and industrial park in Surat from a consortium of Mumbai-based developers for an undisclosed sum. In January, the company announced a ₹706-crore investment plan to acquire fully leased warehouse assets in Surat, Pune, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad markets.
Earlier in September, Macrotech Developers Ltd (Lodha Group) increased its stake in three warehouse companies by buying out Ivanhoe Warehousing India Inc.'s shareholding in those firms for ₹239.56 crore.
Also read | ESR, Xander to sell their warehousing assets in India as industrial demand soars
Diminishing interest
Private equity investments in Indian real estate hit $4.2 billion in 2024, a 32% surge from the year prior, show data from Knight Frank India, a real estate consultancy.
Warehousing led the charge, accounting for 45% of these investments and surpassing the office sector, which had held the highest share of PE investments since 2017.
However, due to a prolonged period of elevated interest rates in the West and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, 'there were no private equity deals in the warehousing sector during the March quarter of 2025 (January-March)", Vivek Rathi, national director, research, Knight Frank India, told Mint.
Flow of overseas capital into Indian real estate, particularly warehousing, will remain a challenge this year, he said, adding that unlike the office and residential segments, warehousing has not seen meaningful investments in 2025.
A key reason is the limited availability of ready investment-grade assets that meet the standards of global investors, Rathi said, adding that risk appetite and return expectations from warehouse assets in India has diminished.
For stable, income-generating warehouse assets, internal rate of returns typically range from 9% to 13% for a holding period of 5-6 years. However, a decade ago, returns in the warehouse sector were at least 3-4 percentage points higher, the veteran pointed out.
'A decade ago, warehousing deals commanded a notable premium compared to office or retail assets but that gap has since narrowed, with returns now closely aligned across these sectors," Rathi said.
Also read | The world's largest warehouse firm re-enters India with a $500 million purse
Exits and IPOs
Private equity firms typically adopt a medium-term investment horizon for warehouse assets, with exits primarily pursued through mergers and acquisitions. Typically, investors aim to build and exit a sizable portfolio with a 5-7-year horizon, according to industry experts.
'We are seeing more exits in the Indian warehousing segment now," said Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Group, a real estate consultancy. Major investors such as global private equity firm Bain Capital and Canadian real estate company Ivanhoé Cambridge Inc. recently sold their Indian warehousing stakes, he added.
Prateek Jhawar, managing director and head, infrastructure and real assets, at Avendus Capital, said India's infrastructure investment trust (InvIT) model has demonstrated its potential as a viable exit route for PE investors.
'We believe that the industry has now matured enough with existing players having sufficient scale and capabilities to go for an IPO (initial public offering)," said Jhawar. 'We can probably witness a couple of big IPOs coming from the sector in the next 2-3 years."
But PE investors in India's warehouse sector are keeping a close watch on factors such as inflation, slowing domestic consumption, supply chain disruptions, high rents, challenges in acquiring land, and shortage of skilled labour, said experts. Besides, the global economic uncertainty and the rupee's depreciation, which impacts dollar returns, also weigh on their decisions.
'Investors are still cautious for several reasons, including valuation corrections and the effect of policy changes," said Puri of ANAROCK Group. 'And that is why they remain focused on Grade A assets with quality tenants, which can help mitigate some of these risks."