Why are so many planes crashing? This is what the data says

Telegraph

20-02-2025

The last few months have seen a clutch of extraordinary plane crashes. This week, a Delta Airlines plane flipped upside down after a heavy landing at Toronto Airport. All passengers and crew survived the accident.
The Toronto disaster came after a series of dramatic incidents in North America, including the terrible case of American Airlines Flight 5342 which collided with an army helicopter when coming into land at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. There were no survivors.
Days later, a small aircraft fell from the sky above Philadelphia carrying a child who was recovering from life-saving treatment. And a week later, a small plane disappeared in Alaska sparking a widespread search effort. The bodies of the 10 passengers were later discovered.
These events followed a particularly tumultuous Christmas period for aviation. On December 25, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane was allegedly struck by missiles in Russian airspace, forcing a crash-landing in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 on board. Days later a Jeju Air commuter jet collided with a wall at the end of the runway at Muan International Airport, killing all but two of the 181 people on board.
As the cases stack up, we cannot avoid the question: is flying becoming more dangerous? The hard data suggests that the simple answer to this question is 'yes', but when we dig into the statistics we can see that the truth is more nuanced.
How many planes crash a year?
Air accident records show that 2024 was the deadliest year for air disasters since 2018. There were 16 fatal accidents resulting in the deaths of 333 passengers and crew. This came after 2023, which was one of the safest years for air traffic accidents with just six fatal accidents resulting in the deaths of 115 passengers.
However, it is worth noting that the 2024 fatality figures were looking similar to the year before until the very end of December. The two air disasters in Kazakhstan and South Korea almost tripled the annual fatality count, from 116 to 333. These two disasters turned 2024 from looking like a positive year for aviation safety to one of the worst in a decade.
Last year we did see a higher-than-usual number of accidents involving scheduled passenger services. Sometimes, an entire year will pass with zero fatalities on commercial planes. But in addition to the disasters mentioned above, last year a passenger died on board Singapore Airlines 777-300ER due to turbulence, and a member of cabin crew died during a smoke and fumes incident on board a Swiss Airbus A220-300.
The perception of things getting worse
There has been greater scrutiny around the safety of aviation after a string of high-profile incidents in recent years, particularly on Boeing planes.
Last April, passengers watched on in horror as the engine cowling of a Boeing 737 flapped in the wind and dislodged from the aircraft during take-off. The plane returned safely to Denver International Airport with all passengers unharmed.
This came after a door plug came off an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 at 1,600ft, creating a large hole in the side of the plane and ripping the shirt off a child's back. One flight attendant reportedly sustained minor injuries in the incident.
The reason that Boeing faces greater scrutiny is that in 2018 and 2019 two Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft crashed – one a Lion Air flight in Indonesia, the other an Ethiopian Airlines flight – killing a total of 346 people. Investigators later discovered the crashes were linked to the activation of a new flight stabilisation feature. After software updates and intensive safety checks, the 737 Max 8 returned to service at the end of 2020.
It is worth considering that incidents have always occurred at 35,000ft, but we have greater awareness of these with the proliferation of smart phones and social media. If every incident, however minor, is captured on video and posted online, the upshot is a skewed sense of flying becoming less safe. But the opposite is in fact true.
What the experts say
Despite the fact that 2024 was the deadliest year for aviation since 2018, the past decade has been by far the safest on record. British and Irish airlines have the best safety records in the world, with both Ryanair and easyJet having never suffered a fatal accident.
John Grant of flight database and statistics company OAG, says: 'In 2024 there were over 37 million scheduled flights operated by airlines around the world and the number of major incidents could be counted on two hands.
'Such a level of safe flight completion highlights and confirms that air travel is one of the safest forms of transport available and that the professionalism and technical expertise of the industry continues to ensure that safety remains at the very heart of all flights operated.'
Brian Smith, a pilot who has flown for many decades for commercial and cargo airlines, says: 'There have been several recent fatal accidents that understandably raise questions about the overall safety of air travel. Accident trends have followed a positive trajectory over the last 70 years when viewed against the volume of departures. For example, in 1959, there were 40 fatal accidents per one million aircraft departures in the US. Within 10 years this had improved to less than two in every million departures, falling to around 0.1 per million in 2014.
'Giant strides in technology, in particular reliability of the jet engine, sea change improvements in aircraft control systems and in air traffic control, have made air travel the clear winner in terms of safety. So improved has been technology, that human factors like pilot error have overtaken mechanical or system failure as the main cause of accidents.
'The industry, and the organisations that regulate it, have brought about manifest improvements in human factors and pilot interaction with automation, through the introduction of Evidence Based Training (EBT). Pilot training encompasses the study of recent significant events to raise awareness of negative trends and develop strategies to mitigate them.
'There will always be statistical blips, but overall, I believe aviation is still the safest form of travel, and passengers should continue to have confidence in the industry.'
John Strickland, an aviation expert at JLS Consultancy, says: 'Flying remains an incredibly safe form of transport. Whilst every accident, especially where there are fatalities, is regrettable, they have to be viewed in the context of millions of flights operated and millions of passengers flown safely annually. For airlines safety is paramount, as is safety oversight by many global regulators.'
Damien Devlin, a lecturer in aviation management at the University of East London, says: 'Recent incidents will inevitably attract attention and focus on the aviation sector. However, occurrences like this remain almost incalculably rare.
'According to IATA, there is, on average, just one accident for every 1.26 million flights. Though challenges persist during the take-off and landing phases, where half of the accidents occur. The industry must continue identifying how training, technology and flight decision-making can further enhance safety and its safety culture.
'Nevertheless, for perspective, a person would need to travel by air daily for 103,239 years to encounter a fatal accident.'