Client services for client state: Trump's reset with Pak is marked by a transactional, short-horizon foreign policy

Time of India

21 hours ago

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Our forefathers believed that we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different.… That was the foundation of the Two-Nation Theory. It was laid on the belief that we are two nations, not one.'That was Pakistan Army chief Gen — now Field Marshal — Asim Munir speaking at the Convention for Overseas Pakistanis in Islamabad on April 17. Less than a week later in Pahalgam , Pakistani terrorists killed 1 Christian and 24 Hindu tourists, as well as a local Muslim who resisted the assailants, after the killers established their victims' religious identities.A link between Munir's rant and the Pahalgam massacre is a possibility. But the rage in India in response to the attack went far beyond what Pakistan had expected. Perhaps it had assessed that India would do what it had done after the 2016 Uri attack when 18 Indian soldiers were killed. Or, in response to the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing, which killed 41 Indian paramilitary soldiers. On both earlier occasions, India had reacted with one-off counterattacks in POK and Balakot. Rawalpindi probably expected a similar reaction post-Pahalgam.This time, the storyline changed. India's counter, launched on May 7, forced the Pakistani DGMO to speak to his Indian counterpart on May 10, and seek a ceasefire. The world is now aware of what transpired between May 7 and 10, although many would not want to talk about it. Suppliers of military equipment to Pakistan — the US, China, and Turkey — will probably be reevaluating their equipment that succumbed to Indian, Russian and French equipment.Inevitably, the Americans got into the act, mostly to save their major non-Nato ally. The resounding success of the Indian response had taken them aback. One wondered about the urgency of Trump 's self-described 'intervention' to stop matters escalating on the India-Pak front when the Ukraine war and IsraelHamas conflict — or even the Houthi battles in Yemen — have been allowed to last for years. Indian denials about US intervention have been ignored by the Americans. The Pakistanis, of course, eagerly accepted this rescue.US anxiety seems to centre around India's destruction of Pakistan's Nur Khan airbase. Remember, according to Pakistani journalist and security expert Imtiaz Gul, the base is 'under American control', where even senior Pakistan Army officers are not allowed to interfere.Pakistan has been extremely useful to the US. Its defence minister Khawaja Asif asserted that they had been fighting America's dirty wars for 30-odd years. From a strategic perspective, it's well-known that the US has been helping Pakistan to keep India 'occupied', while they get a geographic toehold near Iran and China. Both China and the US would like to have total control over Pakistan, to have a base looking at their interests to the east and west.India's economic rise, its decisions to choose its sourcing and look after its own interests, cause concern to the US. India tends to get under its skin, as its commerce secretary Howard Lutnick grumbled recently. Which is why the restart of the old game of hyphenating India and Pakistan, ignoring Indian sensitivities, while propping up Pakistan.Although these decisions may have been made earlier, announcements of $1 bn to Pakistan by IMF, $40 bn by World Bank, and another $800 mn during Operation Sindoor were bad optics. The latest signallings include inviting Munir to attend the 250th US Army Day celebrations in Washington on June 14 — which also happens to be Trump's 79th birthday. Undoubtedly, Munir will meet officials from the State Department and Pentagon, and get promises for military hardware.US Central Command commander Michael E Kurilla, testifying before the House Armed Services Committee in Washington earlier this week, described Pakistan as a 'phenomenal partner' in anti-terrorism operations. He emphasised the need for the US to maintain relationships with both India and Pakistan, stating that he didn't 'believe it is a binary switch that we can't have one with Pakistan if we have a relationship with India'. In that case, the US shouldn't have a problem with India's relations with Russia and the US.It's a matter of conjecture if this US-Pak partnership is about Iran, Central Asia or even India. Pakistan is looking at buying 40 more Chinese J-35A stealth fighter aircraft, a rival of the US F-35, with a listed price of $9 bn, but on offer at 50% the value. This will mean that 80% of Pakistan's military purchases will be from China. Pakistan's debt to China, including CPEC, already amounts to nearly $70 bn.On April 26, World Liberty Financial (WLF) agreed to help build Pakistan's blockchain infrastructure, promote stablecoin-based remittances, and tokenise real-world assets. The agreement seeks to position Pakistan as a crypto-forward nation. Eric Trump, the president's son, is associated with WLF, whose executives met Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif as well as Munir. Enough said.In such conditions, India should be prepared for Pahalgam-style attacks in the future, while expecting no assistance from China, and ambivalence from the US.