The impossible politics of bombing Iran

Politico

6 hours ago

TRUE TEST — President Donald Trump suddenly faces one of the most fateful decisions of his second term: Whether to intervene militarily in the war between Israel and Iran, a conflict that threatens to draw the United States into yet another Middle East quagmire.
Trump spent today posting on Truth Social, insisting that the United States has 'control over the skies of Iran,' that they 'know where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding' and asking for 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!'. But he has not been forthcoming about whether America will directly involve itself in the conflict at all, or whether he's willing to deploy a 'bunker buster' bomb capable of inflicting significant damage on Iran's Fordo nuclear site.
What is clear, however, is that there is a very limited appetite for direct U.S. engagement. If the U.S. joins the Israeli campaign, the involvement would be opposed by an expansive and motley coalition that spans the ideological spectrum.
Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a libertarian and spiritual successor to Ron Paul, and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a leading progressive and a 2028 presidential prospect, are together introducing a bipartisan resolution to limit America's role in the escalating conflict. The bill has the support of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and most House progressives; Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) introduced a similar piece of legislation on Monday aimed at curbing the president's authority to strike Iran without congressional authorization.
To some Democrats, Israel has engaged in a 'reckless escalation' that threatens to throw the entire region into conflict. There's also a fear among many Democrats that Trump's administration has continued to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu without sufficient pushback (a complaint that some had about Biden as well). And Kaine's legislation gets at an even more widely held belief in the party — that whatever the nuance of your views on Israel's decision to strike Iran, Trump shouldn't be the one who is solely empowered to carry out U.S. policy in the region.
On the Republican side, a considerable segment of the MAGA coalition views military intervention as a true test of 'America First' principles — and of the president's promise to 'stop all wars' and end U.S. adventurism. 'Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA,' Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a staunch Trump ally, posted on X on Sunday.
A piece the next day in the paleoconservative magazine The American Conservative underscored the point. 'A U.S. war with Iran has bipartisan opposition from both right- and left-wing congressmen,' wrote Sumantra Maitra. 'The people hate the idea of it.'
A Economist/YouGov poll conducted between June 13 and June 16 found just 16 percent of Americans said that the U.S. military should get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran, with 60 percent saying America shouldn't and 24 percent reporting they aren't sure. Even among Republicans, a majority — 53 percent — said the military should not get involved.
There are some neoconservatives, particularly in the Senate, who are urging Trump toward military action. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said on 'Face the Nation' on Sunday that 'We back Israel to the hilt, all the way.' Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Fox News that 'it's time to close the chapter on the Ayatollah and his henchmen.'
And many in the president's party, of course, will fall in line and support the president whichever policy he pursues. But that doesn't obscure the broader picture.
After decades of U.S. presence in the Middle East, the tide has turned decisively against American involvement in the absence of a direct attack on U.S interests. In the deeply polarized Trump era, it's one of the few things that's true across ideological and party lines.
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What'd I Miss?
— Former Sen. Bob Menendez reports to prison for 11-year sentence: Former Sen. Bob Menendez began his 11-year prison sentence this morning, the Federal Bureau of Prisons said. The New Jersey Democrat, 71, was at the height of his power in 2023, as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, when federal prosecutors in New York revealed allegations based on a yearslong investigation that he'd sold his office for piles of cash and bars of gold. Now, he's at Federal Correctional Institution Schuylkill in Minersville, Pennsylvania.
— Bass to lift curfew in downtown Los Angeles: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is lifting a curfew on the city's downtown, capping off nearly two weeks of immigration protests that saw President Donald Trump federalize the National Guard and send in active-duty Marines despite opposition from Bass and Gov. Gavin Newsom. Bass, a Democrat, blamed the chaotic tenor of the protests on the White House and reserved the right to resume the curfew if needed, she said in her announcement today.
— Utah senator deletes Minnesota shooting posts amid GOP criticism: Utah Sen. Mike Lee, amid widespread outrage, has deleted a pair of social media posts associating the deadly Minnesota shootings last weekend with 'Marxists' and the state's Democratic governor. The move to remove the X posts came amid criticism from a Republican colleague today. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota told reporters said Lee's decision to comment online over the weekend 'seems insensitive, to say the least, inappropriate, for sure' and 'not even true.' 'I don't know if this person was a Marxist or not,' Cramer said. 'I have no sense. Nor does it matter, by the way, nor does it matter. I mean ... what happened is absolutely, positively unacceptable in any political environment, and it's tragic.'
— ICE agents detain New York mayoral candidate in chaotic scene: New York City mayoral candidate Brad Lander was handcuffed and arrested by federal agents this afternoon while escorting migrants from immigration hearings in Lower Manhattan. Footage and video of the hectic incident is firing up the third-place candidate's suddenly energetic campaign, as he shows himself taking on an issue that's central to President Donald Trump's political agenda. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement posted a statement on X saying Lander was arrested and accusing him of assault. Lander has now been released.
— Noem taken to hospital 'out of an abundance of caution': Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was taken to a hospital due to an allergic reaction today, DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told POLITICO. 'She was transported to the hospital out of an abundance of caution,' McLaughlin said in a statement. 'She is alert and recovering.'
AROUND THE WORLD
THE DANGERS OF REGIME CHANGE — French President Emmanuel Macron today opposed bringing down the Iranian regime violently as he warned of potentially destabilizing effects across the Middle East.
'The biggest mistake today would be to try to do a regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos,' Macron told reporters on the last day of the G7 summit in Canada, warning that 'no one can say what comes next.'
Macron's remarks come as fears snowball over the U.S. potentially joining Israel's military campaign in Iran, which began late last week and has crippled Iranian nuclear sites and killed top regime officials.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said today that President Donald Trump was indeed considering that option. On his way back to the U.S. yesterday evening, Trump said he wanted a 'real end' to the conflict and that he was 'not too much in a mood to negotiate.'
AGE LIMITS — The Dutch government today said children under 15 years old should not have access to social media like TikTok and Instagram.
Children over 13 should be able to learn how to use 'social interaction platforms' like WhatsApp and Signal, the Dutch government said in new guidelines to help parents handle screen time and social apps. But when it comes to social media, the government advises to wait until the age of 15, it said in a press release.
The Netherlands is one of several European Union countries that is taking action against the effects of social media on minors' mental health and development. France's President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal about a minimum age of 15 for social media use, and Greece and Spain also support tougher rules.
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RADAR SWEEP
ON THE FLOOR — When you watch a professional basketball game on TV, you might notice that there are logos that appear on the floor that seem to move or aren't actually there — advertisements projected onto the broadcast only. Now, though, a company called ASB GlassFloor is doing the same thing in person: Using LED technology to light up the floors of sports arenas. There are lots of use cases here, from ad projections to running drills directly on the floor — and NBA teams who have used the ASB GlassFloor court in person for practice have talked about just how much it can help even athletes at the highest levels. At the same time, for in person or TV viewers, the courts can look jarring with all kinds of projections on them. Ben Dowsett reports on this new innovation for WIRED.
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