As the Phillies eye a World Series ring, is their arrow pointing up or down?

New York Times

10-03-2025

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Which team would you rather be — Team A or Team B? These are the kinds of questions spring training is made for pondering. So ponder away.
Team A is loaded with stars, has a rotation no one wants to face, and has won more regular-season games than the season before in each of the past six full seasons. So which way is the arrow pointing for a team like that? Straight up, right?
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Team B is built to win but hasn't found its way to the parade floats. It has talked the talk — and had stretches where it walked the walk. But its postseason dreams keep unraveling, three straight Octobers now, just when it looks as if this might be The Year.
So which way is the arrow pointing for a team like that, as its veteran core edges into its 30s? Want to go with down? Sure. Why not?
But now let's pull back the curtain. Team B is the 2025 Phillies, still trying to figure out if there are lessons to be learned from their untimely demise against the Astros in the 2022 World Series, their shocking collapse against the Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS and a stomping from the Mets in the 2024 NLDS.
Too bad Team B can't be more like Team A, right? Except for one minor technicality: Team A is also the 2025 Phillies — proven winners, other than the last couple of games in three straight Octobers.
So which one is the real Phillies? What a fascinating spring question.
Are they still one of the best teams in the sport, riding a wave that shows no sign of washing out? Or are they flawed, or not quite built for October — and staring at a win-now window that won't be open much longer?
Um … yes! Just ask them.
'I think you know the quality of this baseball team,' catcher J.T. Realmuto said. 'It shows throughout the entire regular season how much better we've gotten — and how we've continued to build on that. But I certainly think that the postseason and the regular season are telling different stories.
'So in a sense, that's just kind of who this team is,' he said. 'And that's the hump that we know that we want to get over. We want to hoist the trophy and win the World Series for the city.'
Nothing boils this group's juices, after a 95-win season, more than the talk that they've missed their shot to clear that hump … or that they're not even one of the two best teams in the NL East this year. They've also noticed that they're now three weeks into a spring in which they've generated virtually no buzz, despite all the winning they've done.
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Then again, that'll happen, after seasons in which your postseason blows up faster than you can say, 'Mark Vientos.' It'll also happen after a surprisingly quiet winter — one in which the Phillies did trade for a high-impact starter in Jesús Luzardo, but signed only two major-league free agents: bounce-back candidates Max Kepler and Jordan Romano, neither on a multiyear deal.
But if all it took to win a World Series was March buzz, the Padres would have more rings in this century than the Red Sox. So look past the buzz factor, and what do you find?
FanGraphs projects only two teams in MLB — the Dodgers and Braves — to win more games in 2025 than the Phillies (88). And there isn't a player on this Phillies roster who wouldn't take the 'over' on that number.
But you don't need to show these guys the Mets' 2024 highlights video to remind them how their postseasons have turned out lately. They saw it. They lived it. They're irritated by it. And they're fueled by it.
'No one's happy with how the last three seasons have ended here,' reliever Matt Strahm said. 'I mean, (2022) NL champs. Yeah, cool. You tell anyone in here, they'd rather be the World Series champs. So (when people say those three seasons loom as gigantic missed opportunities), I guess it's not unreasonable, because that's just the truth.'
Except that all of it is the truth. And that means it's time to face one more powerful truth: As a pivotal season comes roaring at them, this group's legacy is on the line.
'When you win a world championship, there's a difference (in how you're remembered),' said Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, a man who has built five World Series teams.
'Go back and try to remember who won the divisions throughout the years. People don't remember that very well. Who was the World Series loser? A lot of times they don't remember that very well, either. But they remember who won the World Series. That's just the way it is.'
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So after chasing rings for nearly four decades in the game, Dombrowski knows exactly what's at stake as the 2025 Phillies approach the starting gate.
'I hope,' he said, 'for our benefit and the players' benefit, that we win a world championship with this group here … because if we do, you'll be looking at one of the greatest periods in Phillies history. And if not, people will say, 'Geez, they never got it done.' Maybe that's not fair, but that's just the way it goes.'
In baseball, the large samples should always tell us more than the small samples. So let's try to acknowledge this: The bigger the picture, the better the Phillies look.
Six of one, half a dozen of the other — Who says you can't measure progress in a straight line? Check out the Phillies' full-season win totals since their 66-96 season of 2017. It isn't hard to spot where this arrow is pointing.
(*60-game 2020 season not included)
You know how many National League teams in history have increased their win total in six straight full seasons? According to research by the Phillies, that list consists of only one team — those 2018-24 Phillies.
And just two American League teams have ever done it: Alex Gordon's 2010-15 Royals and Bernie Williams' 1991-98 Yankees (with their strike-shortened 1994 and '95 seasons not included).
But here's a noteworthy subplot to think about: Only one of those teams strung together a streak like that but did not win a World Series along the way. Yep. You know which one.
Mark down the date, Oct. 7, 2022 — This was the day the Phillies became one of the monsters of baseball. And nobody saw it coming.
They'd staggered into their first postseason in over a decade. They didn't clinch that spot until the final series of the season. They only made it because MLB had added an extra wild-card team. And they didn't resemble anybody's image of a World Series juggernaut … until they did.
After getting shut out for eight innings, they scored six runs in the ninth inning that night, shocked the Cardinals in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, went on to sweep that series on the road and awakened the beast we've been watching ever since. Take a look.
MOST WINS SINCE START OF 2022 POSTSEASON*
(*regular season plus postseason)
The funny thing is, while the narratives swirling around them suggest the Phillies must not be built for October, the facts seem to say the opposite. No team has won more postseason series (five) or postseason games (18) than they have over the past three postseasons. But all we remember is who rode in the parades — because of course we do.
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'I get it,' said Dombrowski, now in his fifth season as the principal architect of this roster. 'That's how baseball works. So you think about the Dodgers. If they'd have lost (Games 4 or 5 of the NLDS) versus the Padres last year and gotten knocked out (in their first series) three years in a row, how would people have viewed them?
'The Braves have gotten knocked out in the first round three years in a row. How do people view them? Both of those teams have very good organizations and very good teams, in my opinion. But it happens.'
And his point, in case you missed it, was: Not just to the Phillies.
In Philadelphia, worrying is what people do best. So we can help with that!
A team for the 'ages' — When you throw out words like 'old,' you're probably thinking more of Clint Eastwood (age 94) and Dick Van Dyke (99) than you are of, say, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner (both entering their age-32 seasons). But obviously, age in baseball is a real thing.
This Phillies team is built around five centerpiece position players who will all be in their age-32 seasons or older: Harper, Turner, Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Here is why that's relevant:
In the history of this sport, only two teams have ever made it to the postseason with that many full-time players, age 32 or older, getting at least 500 plate appearances in that season. One is the Rod Carew/Reggie Jackson 1982 Angels. The other is the 2007 Yankees of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. But that's it.
If you lower the bar slightly, to 450 plate appearances, that list swells to 12 teams — including the most recent NL team to do it, the 2011 Phillies of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. But you catch our drift. Father Time can be even more intimidating than the 2024 Mets.
'You know what's ironic about that?' Dombrowski mused. 'And I get it. There's an aging curve, and you can't prevent it. But we, the sports industry, have improved so much in our training, our medical, our nutritional (expertise). … I'm not saying you should build your club with 37-year-old players. But I don't consider 32 old for well-conditioned athletes nowadays in our sport.'
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The data tells us that 32 is up there, for the average player. But if you drop that word, 'average,' you might find yourself on the wrong end of an evil eye in this locker room, if only because — as Strahm puts it — 'there's not an average guy in here.'
So like his teammates, Strahm was not impressed by that stat above, about all those teams packed with 32-year-olds that didn't ascend to the heights this team is trying to reach.
'I always laugh at stats like that,' said Strahm, who is 33. 'Like: 'That's the first one ever since 1972.' So that means it's the second one, right? Not the first one. So it ain't impossible, right? I know how this goes. You can't have the same narrative every year. So I get that we want to go with the age one this year. Cool. We'll step on that one.'
Windows don't last forever — It's funny how it works on teams like this. Keep running it back with a bunch of players in their 30s, and next thing you know, you're hearing more talk about windows than in a Pella showroom.
'I guess,' slugger Kyle Schwarber said, 'I just don't believe in windows. I'd love to ask those (window-talk) people to take a look in here and see if you think this is a good team or not. We know we've got a really good team.'
Not so long ago, Schwarber was hearing this same window chatter in the Cubs' friendly confines. Turns out that talk wasn't wrong. But at least that 2020 Cubs core group didn't have to hear it until four years after the parade.
So how rare is it for a team to keep bringing back the same stars, year after year, without winning a World Series? In the wild-card era (1995-present), there's almost no precedent for it.
Three seasons in a row now, the Phillies have reached the postseason and gotten at least 400 plate appearances per year from the same six players: Harper, Schwarber, Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott. You obviously don't see that much.
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So we did an extensive search via Baseball Reference/Stathead — and learned that only three other playoff teams in that span have had a similar streak over three (or more) consecutive seasons:
The 1998-2001 Yankees — This team did that four seasons in a row, and built their team around the same seven hitters, in Jeter, Posada, Williams, Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius and Chuck Knoblauch. That group won three World Series, in 1998, 1999 and 2000, then made it to Game 7 in 2001. No wonder those Yankees kept running it back.
The curse-busting Red Sox — These Red Sox had two different three-year streaks, constructed around two slightly overlapping groups. The 2003-05 Red Sox made history with David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar and Bill Mueller all getting 400 plate appearances or more. Then the 2007-09 Sox did that again, with Ortiz, Varitek, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew. Each of those groups won a World Series (in 2004 and '07).
The 2010-12 Rangers — Only in Texas is there a core that large that can relate to these Phillies. Those Rangers teams made their run with Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and David Murphy. But unlike these Phillies, they got all the way to two World Series — and were one strike away from winning one of them. Cue that 2011 David Freese video. Or not.
Incredibly, the Braves teams of the '90s and 2000s never had this many of the same regulars post up in back-to-back-to-back seasons. The Dodgers of the last decade never did it. Neither did any incarnation of the Astros, Indians/Guardians, Cubs or Tigers.
So the moral of this story is: Windows don't stay open forever — not with the same group of players, at least. But if that's the line we're selling, this Phillies core isn't buying, because it has noticed how driven Dombrowski and owner John Middleton are to keep that window from slamming.
'It's just noise,' Strahm said. 'So we're going to tune it out and do our job, like we have every year. … I don't think John plans on closing any windows anytime soon.'
Is there life after losing the World Series? Now let's go on one last research mission: How many teams do what these Phillies have done without winning a World Series?
Here is the question we asked to delve into that: How many teams in the division-play era (1969-present) have lost a World Series one year, then ran up a better record in each of the next two seasons, but came out the other end without a World Series ring?
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With the help of our friends from STATS Perform, we took a look. You should know we eliminated teams that had won a World Series before that stretch — so that lopped off the 2009 Phillies, 2001 Yankees and 1996 Braves. We also eliminated teams that won a World Series just after that window expired — so the 1995 Braves bumped the 1991-93 Braves off this list. And we decided that the 1911 New York Giants, in an era before expanded playoffs, didn't truly fit.
That left just three star-crossed teams:
• Manny Ramirez's 1997-98-99 Cleveland Indians.
• Michael Young's aforementioned 2010-11-12 Texas Rangers.
• And Miguel Cabrera's 2012-13-14 Detroit Tigers — a team built by (yep) Dave Dombrowski.
'When (manager) Jim Leyland and I talk about the Tigers of that time,' Dombrowski said, 'we always say: 'I can't believe we didn't win a World Series with those clubs.' We had three sure-bet Hall of Famers, in (Max) Scherzer, (Justin) Verlander and Cabrera … and some other really, really good players … and the best pitching staff in baseball, starting-wise.
'So we had really good clubs. But every year, something happened that we didn't win it. And that just shows why it's so hard to win.'
But there's an essential difference, Dombrowski said, between his time in Detroit and his team in Philadelphia. In Detroit, the Tigers made the hard choice to essentially blow up the player-development system in their quest to win for aging owner Mike Illitch.
So as the title-free years rolled by, 'we knew that time was coming in Detroit,' Dombrowski said, where their chance to win was about to expire. But in Philadelphia, between Middleton's deep resources and a rebounding farm system headed by two of Keith Law's top 13 prospects in baseball — pitcher Andrew Painter and shortstop Aidan Miller — Dombrowski merely sees this window changing casts, not thumping shut.
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But there are other comparisons worth making — to two previous Phillies eras marked by both immense frustration and triumph. So let's make them, with help from two men who lived them.
See if this sounds familiar. These Phillies lit up the town, charged into the postseason five years in a row and won more games than the season before in every one of those seasons. But …
After that 2008 World Series parade, they kept getting bounced from the postseason one round earlier in every one of the years that followed. So those teams, too, were haunted by what might have been — in 2009, '10 and '11.
You would think that the ecstasy of 2008 helped wash away the pain of the October upsets that followed. But if you do, you've forgotten what it really felt like, said Shane Victorino, the center fielder for those Phillies teams.
'It's an opposite effect, honestly, because once you get it, you feel that's all you want,' said Victorino, who just spent a week as a visiting instructor in the 2025 team's camp. 'So it actually gets worse.
'If you think about those years, our '08 team was probably our worst team out of our '09-'10-and-'11 run. But the rest of them, we didn't win. Every year after we won, I was like, 'We're gonna win again. We just got (Roy) Halladay. We got (Roy) Oswalt. We got (Cliff) Lee. We're gonna win again.' But no. We didn't. So I think that's where I say to myself it didn't get easier. It actually got worse.'
But when Victorino looks at this generation of Phillies, he knows exactly what's on the line — and exactly what would be missing if they never get to swat away the ticker-tape on a ride down Broad Street.
'I think it would be heart-wrenching for them if they don't ever do it,' he said, 'because the opportunity has been so close for them — and multiple times. And I think that's where it gets hard when you don't finally do it.
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'These guys will still be loved when they come back, even if they don't win it all. But when you win it all, it takes you to another level. Then you've got to say that this is one of the greatest eras in Phillies baseball. But if they don't, you can't compare it to our era because they didn't win it.'
Those storied Phillies teams Larry Bowa played on represent more than just a convenient comp for the current group. They should serve as an inspiration — because those Phillies icons were also looked upon as a group that didn't know how to close the deal in October … until they did.
They got ousted from the playoffs in the first round three years in a row, despite two 101-win seasons, in 1976-77-78. Then they missed the postseason completely in an injury-ravaged season in 1979. So in 1980, Bowa said, their owner, Ruly Carpenter, laid out the stakes for the faces of their team.
'Before that spring, he sat us down in the clubhouse,' Bowa said. 'He said, 'You guys know how much I love you, and you're part of the family, but if we don't get deep in the playoffs, I've got to break this team up.'
'It made us say, 'Damn, we'd better get this done.' It was in our heads a lot.'
Did those words drive that team to the first World Series title in franchise history? Even if that answer isn't a firm yes, it was part of the storyline. And Bowa can't help but see the parallels here in 2025, after nearly a half-century with this organization.
'Nobody's saying that to this team,' he said. 'But they know that not everybody's coming back if this ends the way that those other years ended.'
Those teams of Bowa and Mike Schmidt have a vivid recollection of what it's like to play in Philadelphia, listening to nonstop talk about the seasons that ended all wrong. Now, Bowa knows, it's this team's turn.
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'They haven't won, and until they put that ring on their finger, that's going to be the question mark,' he said. 'This is just me talking. This isn't the players. This isn't Dave Dombrowski. This isn't Rob Thomson. This is just me. If this team, this group of guys, do not win a World Series, I will be very disappointed, just because of the talent. I see it everywhere on the field.
'If these guys don't win it all, it will be a void in their life. It will be a void in their biography, for the rest of their lives. If they leave here without winning, it's going to be on their mind: Why didn't we win? Because usually, you could say, 'Oh, we needed another pitcher. Oh, we needed a bat.' But there's nothing this team needs right now …
'And now that the Eagles won (the Super Bowl), the bar is only going to go higher.'
But he knows — and we know — that that bar doesn't even open until October. The ride from April to September could be just as exhilarating as last year's. But regardless of how that unfolds, the 2025 Phillies will be judged on one month — or possibly only one week — in October.
'Is that fair?' Dombrowski wondered. 'I don't know if it's fair or not. But … I understand that's how it goes.'
He's a man whose teams have lost three World Series. Those years stick with him, even now.
'The game breaks your heart,' he said. 'You love it, but it breaks your heart, too. That's just the way it is. I don't know if it's fair or not fair. But it's why it's so hard to win. It's just very, very difficult.'
So here in the spring of 2025, people will sketch out the narratives. But when I asked Dombrowski if those are 'just narratives' or if they're more, he gave a surprising response.
'No, I think it's more,' he said. 'And I'll tell you why: Because when you come back and you have your 10-year reunion and you're the world champions returning, versus the National League champions, there's a difference.
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'Not that they won't be friends forever. Not that they won't come back and have a great time. Not that they won't reminisce. Not that the city won't reminisce and celebrate them and all those type of things. But it's just a different feeling when you win the world championship and you're celebrating that.'
So once the Phillies pull into the starting gate for a season that will define them all, it won't matter anymore whether the arrow is pointing up or down. If they win, they can celebrate for the rest of their lives. If not, not all of them will be back to ponder next year's narrative.
'I think this team has a chance to be good — not just this year but for a long time,' Dombrowski said. 'But, you know what? There's no sense talking about it. You've got to do it.'
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Mike Carlson / MLB Photos / Getty Images; Erica Denhoff / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images; Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images; Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)