How to watch Xavier vs. Illinois: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Illinois got perhaps the slightly tougher matchup between Xavier and Texas, who played for the No. 11 spot in the Midwest on Wednesday. Xavier put Texas away 86-80 and now faces a team in the Fighting Illini that, at full strength, can compete with almost anyone. Our Bracket Breaker analysts gave Xavier just a 26.9 percent chance of making this an upset. The odds are a bit closer, with Illinois favored by only a few points.
We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice.
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Strengths: Illinois owns the length and athleticism to compete against almost anyone. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley are legitimate NBA lottery prospects who stuff the stat sheet through facilitations, dribble drives and arc splashes. As a collective, the Illini are capable of defending with the nation's best. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is a versatile rim protector who is disruptive on both ends. A phenomenal rebounding team, Illinois generates abundant second and third chances. When getting downhill, its kick-out game and free-throw conversions can demoralize the competition.
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Weaknesses: The Illini are kings of inconsistency. Yes, they're talented enough to blow out early-round foes by 30. However, their often unwavering devotion to the 3-pointer is extremely problematic. When they've settled for outside jumpers instead of attacking the rim, it's led to prolonged scoring droughts. Down the regular season's homestretch, Illinois also loosened defensively, ranking No. 286 in opponent's eFG% over its final eight games. That slide was only exacerbated by an alarming lack of frontcourt depth. Turnovers also took a toll. Frankly, predicting where the roulette wheel stops is an easier exercise than figuring out which Illini team shows up.
Outlook: Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can flatten opponents in convincing fashion. However, when complacently chucking 3s and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Orange and Blue recaptured their early season mojo in the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and given their baseline talents, the Illini are quite possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the entire Dance.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Peaking at the right time is a phrase that best applies to the citizens of Cincinnati. Over the regular season's last month, Xavier was the Big East's highest-performing team, checking in at No. 17 overall, according to BartTorvik. Popping nets during that stretch, Sean Miller's men showed considerable scoring giddyup. In their final eight games before the postseason, they ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage, drilling 55.8 percent on 2-pointers and 38.7 percent on 3s, and they shot 79.3 percent on free throws and finished top-five in assist rate. Also, the Musketeers forced a turnover on close to 21 percent of opponent possessions and masterfully sealed off the glass.
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Weaknesses: The biggest liability for Zach Freemantle and friends is defense. Over the regular season's final month, Xavier was a rather doughy No. 254 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 55.6 percent inside the arc. That around-the-rim vulnerability is a concern when facing teams with formidable post action. Per Haslametrics, the Musketeers slotted a very average No. 99 in near-proximity percentage defense.
Outlook: Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter March's main event influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality resume wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season's back nine collected numerous birdies. It's buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers' brackets. According to KenPom, they are the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn't be underestimated.
—Brad Evans
This matchup can also be streamed on the NCAA March Madness Live app and Paramount+.
Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Kasparas Jakucionis: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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