Iran Israel's fragile ceasefire in place - What's next? Explained

Hindustan Times

6 hours ago

Iran and Israel continue to hold their fragile ceasefire on Wednesday, especially after US President Donald Trump's warning to both countries. However, despite this warning, explosions and drone interceptions continue to be reported in Tel Aviv and Tehran. People attend a gathering to support Iran's Armed Forces, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, in Tehran, Iran(via REUTERS)
As the fragile ceasefire holds in place for now, the world now asks once question - what is next?
As per Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, the next obvious step is to bring Iran back on the table for negotiations for a nuclear deal with the United States.
'Now it's time for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement,' he told Fox News.
Follow LIVE updates on the Iran Israel conflict here
Iran and the US signed a key nuclear deal in 2015, which called on Iran to limit its nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. Introduced under the Obama administration, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by the US, and other global powers - China, Russia, Germany, France and the UK.
However, in 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the deal, after citing it to be a 'terrible, one-sided deal.' Fast forward to 2025 and his second administration, Trump is now working to get Iran back to the table to negotiate a "better" nuclear deal.
The US return to the deal came after Iran kept working on its nuclear programme and, as per the IAEA, had achieved around 60 percent uranium enrichment.
One of the key reasons behind the Iran-Israel 12-day war was Netanyahu's claim that Iran was "weeks away" from developing a nuclear bomb. Netanyahu's claim amped up pressure on the US, despite American intelligence stating Tehran was "years away" from a nuclear bomb.
With the ceasefire now in place, Witkoff told Fox news that the US is "hopeful" as it engages in direct talks with Iran over its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Iranian leadership is at a moment of disarray, which makes it difficult for a return to the table.
'The country's leadership and the regime is not cohesive enough to be able to come to some sort of negotiations at this point, especially negotiations from the American perspective, whose conclusion is predetermined, namely, zero enrichment,' he told AP. Assessing 'damage' caused to Iran's nuclear plant
Trump has stated the US "obliterated and destroyed" Iran's nuclear programme, a claim echoed by Israel as well.
However, satellite images and intelligence reports have stated otherwise. As per the Pentagon's intelligence wing, US strikes on Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz may have set back Iran's nuclear programme "by a few months."
The intel report confirmed Iran's claim regarding the safeguarding of its nuclear supplies and uranium stockpile.
Experts believe the Iranian facilities will require months or longer to be repaired or reconstructed. However, as per Trump and Witkoff, the strikes have set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade by years. Focus on diplomacy
After US' attack on Iran, Tehran and its allies accused Washington of "destroying and blowing up" the paths of diplomacy to bring an end to the conflict.
However, as per Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the US did not "blow up diplomacy," rather it was the Iranians who never gave it a chance.
"We didn't blow up the diplomacy. The diplomacy never was given a real chance by the Iranians. And our hope … is that this maybe can reset here. The Iranians have a choice. They can go down the path of peace or they can go down the path of this ridiculous brinksmanship," JD Vance told NBC's 'Meet the Press' on Sunday.
Rubio echoed the sentiment and said - 'We're prepared right now, if they call right now and say we want to meet, let's talk about this, we're prepared to do that," he said.
"The president's made that clear from the very beginning: His preference is to deal with this issue diplomatically," the top US diplomat added. Trump to continue peacemaker role
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel will give Trump another chance to continue his role as a "peacemaker."
The US president has already claimed he brought an end to the India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 and is working towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine as well as Israel and Gaza.
If the fragile truce continues to hold, Trump is expected to shift his focus to ending the Ukraine war, which is in its fourth year with no end in sight.
As per an AP report, Trump is also expected to enhance US cooperation with Syria and Lebanon after "weakening" Iran, which could aide in a pause in hostilities the two nations have with Israel.