Dow Jones Futures: Tesla Robotaxi Launch Due; Four Stocks In Buy Zones
The market rally held in a range this past week, amid Israel-Iran news. The Tesla robotaxi launch is set for Sunday.
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Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Gold prices should hit $4,000 as U.S. deficits may overshadow the Israel-Iran conflict, BofA says
Wars and geopolitical conflicts typically aren't long-term growth drivers for gold prices, according to analysts at Bank of America, which sees the precious metal reaching $4,000 an ounce over the next year. Despite the Israel-Iran conflict heating up, the outlook for gold is likely to be swayed more by the U.S. budget deficit. Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of global turmoil, but wars and geopolitical conflicts typically aren't long-term growth drivers for gold prices, according to analysts at Bank of America. In fact, gold has actually dipped 2% in the week since Israel began its airstrikes on Iran. Meanwhile, tensions are ramping as reports Saturday said B-2 stealth bombers are headed over the Pacific. That's as President Donald Trump weighs involvement in the conflict, potentially with bombers dropping massive 'bunker busters' on heavily fortified Iranian nuclear sites. In a note on Friday, BofA analysts said they expect gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the next year, representing an 18% jump from current levels. 'While the war between Israel and Iran can always escalate, conflicts are not usually a sustained bullish price driver,' they wrote. 'As such, the trajectory of the US budget negotiations will be critical, and if fiscal shortfalls don't decline, the fallout from that plus market volatility may end up attracting more buyers.' The Israel-Iran conflict has drawn attention away from Trump's tax-and-spending bill making its way through Congress. While the House and Senate versions have key differences that need to be reconciled before it can become law, the bill's fiscal impact is still expected to add trillions of dollars to U.S. deficits in the coming years. That's raised fears about the sustainability of U.S. debt and global demand for the flood of Treasury bonds that will be issued to finance all the red ink. And amid Trump's trade war, the U.S. dollar—traditionally viewed as a haven asset—has suffered as well, slumping against other top currencies and providing more upside to gold. Central banks around the world have dumped $48 billion in Treasuries since late March alone. At the same time, central banks keep buying gold, continuing a trend that began years earlier. A recent survey from the World Gold Council found that geopolitical instability and potential trade conflicts are chief reasons why central banks in emerging economies are shifting toward gold at a much faster rate than those in advanced economies. BofA estimated the central banks' gold holdings are now equivalent to just under 18% of outstanding U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago. 'That tally should be a warning for US policymakers. Ongoing apprehension over trade and US fiscal deficits may well divert more central bank purchases away from US Treasuries to gold,' analysts warned. Meanwhile, the market still doesn't appear to be overexposed to gold. BofA estimated that investors have allocated just 3.5% of their portfolios to gold. And regardless of how Congress ends up rewriting the budget bill, analysts said deficits will remain elevated. 'Therefore, market concerns over fiscal sustainability are unlikely to fade no matter the result of Senate negotiations,' BofA predicted. 'Rates volatility and a weaker USD should then keep gold supported, especially if the US Treasury or the Fed are ultimately forced to step in and support markets.' This story was originally featured on
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Elon Musk's DOGE Wouldn't Have Worked Even If It Had Worked
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 13: Elon Musk listens as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump addresses a ... More House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill on November 13, 2024 in Washington, DC. As is tradition with incoming presidents, Trump is traveling to Washington, DC to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House as well as meet with Republican congressmen on Capitol Hill. (Photo by) It's easy to forget that individual saving in no way shrinks consumption. Short of placing money saved into a coffee can, to save is to shift consumptive ability to someone else. What's true about individual saving is true about government savings. No act of parsimony shrinks the size of government either. That's why Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) wouldn't have worked even if it had worked. Short of the savings being placed in a much bigger coffee can, government spending cuts born of efficiency, headcount reduction, mandate reduction, or all three would have just freed up money for Congress to spend in new ways. In government as with individual, what's not spent is shifted to other existing priorities, or much worse, all new ones. It's the new spending initiatives that are the most perilous. Most start out small, and this includes Medicare. It's so easy to forget that it began as a $3 billion program in the 1960s, but is expected to pass $1 trillion in the coming years. Which speaks to the danger of spending cuts. Talk about "regime uncertainty." Unfortunate and economy-sapping as much government spending is today, the good news is that it's a known. In other words, the myriad ways that Congress politicizes the allocation of precious resources is already priced or factored into our day-to-day existence. That's not so with new initiatives. Who knows what Congress will dream up, and who knows how what Congress will dream up will end up? To see the peril of this, ask yourself if Congress would have had the votes to pass Medicare if it was known that sixty years later it would yet again be a nearly $1 trillion annual program today. That's why without excusing most federal outlays for even a second, when it comes to government the devil you know is better than the unknown. Which is why it's better to let Congress fight over what's known and priced, as opposed to freeing it to design all new programs and initiatives from the proverbial studs. They could end up much bigger than they presently are. Logically so. To which some will reply that what's been written doesn't, or wouldn't have applied to DOGE since any savings wouldn't free up money as much as the savings would reduce government borrowing. More realistically, it would just free up Treasury to borrow $2 trillion more in the future. With our federal government, no act of not borrowing subtracts from borrowing. It's all worth keeping in mind as conservatives in particular lament the failure of the latest gallant, but surely quixotic attempt to shrink the size and cost of government. These initiatives never work simply because in government as with individuals, money saved is never money that's not spent.
The Hill
2 hours ago
- The Hill
Sunday shows preview: GOP megabill faces ‘big, beautiful' road bumps; all eyes turn to Trump on Iran
Congress remains at a standstill in regard to President Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill touted as a rite of passage for tax cuts, child credits and the country's future, and the clock is ticking on Trump's timeline for a decision on whether the U.S. will involve itself in the Iran-Israel conflict. These topics are among those likely to be a focus of this week's Sunday shows. House Republicans are tied to their legislative text, which outlines a three-year boost for child tax credit at $2,500 per child, while senators are considering a more modest approach marked at $2,200 per child. However, the GOP stands divided by standards for state and local tax deductions. The House's proposed cap at $40,000 per household with incomes of less than $500,000 is facing scrutiny from senators who are pushing for the cap to stay at $10,000. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), who sits on the Subcommittee on Taxation and IRS Oversight, will likely address his proposed change to the bill during an appearance on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures.' Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) will also likely lobby for the bill's passage during an appearance on Fox News's 'Fox News Sunday.' Lee has lauded portions of the bill that would include the sale of public land as Western conservatives urge leaders to cede lands to local control. 'Washington has proven time and again it can't manage this land. This bill puts it in better hands,' Lee said last Thursday. However, his colleagues in the House have pushed back on the measure amid the Senate's proposed rollback of green energy tax credits and other environmental clauses. 'My main takeaway for you guys is this bill, as the Senate has produced it, is definitely dead if it were to come over to the House in anything resembling its current form,' Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a vocal member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on a press call. His comments detail a shaky future for the legislation Republicans have set an objective to pass before the Fourth of July. Still, amid the clamor, the Trump administration has worked to gain traction with citizens across the country by promoting the bill's 'Trump account' caveat, which ensures an investment account funded by the Treasury Department. However, Senate Democrats are stifled by Medicaid cuts expanded in the bill's new text authored by the upper chamber. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) will likely speak to party members' concerns during show appearances on CBS' 'Face the Nation' and Fox News 'Fox News Sunday.' Kaine is also likely to draw attention to the Pentagon's decision to rename several military bases across the country, including those in his home state. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is also likely to chime in on the bill which is slated to increase manpower for immigration operations at the southern border. Noem has been at the helm of the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigrants, an effort which has stemmed protests and outrage in cities like Los Angeles. Trump sent thousands of National Guard soldiers and hundreds of Marines to Los Angeles against the wishes of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Their long-embroiled rivalry heated up when Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) was forcibly removed from Noem's presser last week where he was handcuffed and wrestled to the ground. Padilla is one of several Democratic lawmakers to either be handcuffed, detained or arrested amid a broader push to conduct oversight on immigration policies. Noem may speak to Democrats' repeated run-ins with federal authorities during an appearance on CNN's 'State of the Union' and Fox News' 'Fox News Sunday.' The home front clashes come during Trump's potential involvement in Middle Eastern discourse between Iran and Israel. Israeli officials confirmed numerous strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities Saturday and throughout the week resulting in the deaths of top commanders and engineers furthering their effort to shut down the development of larger weapons. Iran has pledged not to back down from war with the American ally and retaliated against bombings with a series of UAV attacks on Friday night. Israel said many of their drones were intercepted and ultimately ineffective due to Iron Dome technology. Trump is considering advancing U.S. involvement in the war and has issued a two-week timeline for a decision to intervene. The Pentagon reportedly moved B-2 bombers to the island of Guam on Saturday for standby operations as the president weighs the outcome of strikes on Iran. See the full list of Sunday shows below: NewsNation 'The Hill Sunday:' Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.); Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) ABC's 'This Week:' Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) CNN's 'State of the Union:' Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem; Sen. Adam Schiff, (D-Calif.); Israeli President Isaac Herzog; former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton; Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson NBC's 'Meet the Press:' Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) CBS' 'Face the Nation:' Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.); Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter; Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.); Thomas Massie (R-Ky.); retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command Fox News'Fox News Sunday:' Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem; Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.); Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) Fox News 'Sunday Morning Futures:' Tom Homan, Border Czar; Matthew Whitaker, U.S. Ambassador To NATO; Gov. Ron Desantis (R-Fla.), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.)
