National Vision price target raised to $17 from $13 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on National Vision (EYE) to $17 from $13 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's earnings beat was driven by higher comps and slightly better margins with guidance reflecting the results and positive QTD trends, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman adds that the company's management believes any potential tariff impact can be mitigated.
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Optical retailer National Vision (NYSE:EYE) reported revenue ahead of Wall Street's expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales up 5.7% year on year to $510.3 million. The company's full-year revenue guidance of $1.94 billion at the midpoint came in 0.7% above analysts' estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.34 per share was 10.5% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy EYE? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $510.3 million vs analyst estimates of $502.6 million (5.7% year-on-year growth, 1.5% beat) Adjusted EPS: $0.34 vs analyst estimates of $0.31 (10.5% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $64.07 million vs analyst estimates of $60.83 million (12.6% margin, 5.3% beat) The company slightly lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $1.94 billion at the midpoint from $1.93 billion Management raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $0.63 at the midpoint, an 8.6% increase Operating Margin: 5.1%, in line with the same quarter last year Locations: 1,237 at quarter end, up from 1,201 in the same quarter last year Same-Store Sales rose 5.5% year on year (0.4% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $1.66 billion National Vision's first quarter performance was driven by the company's ongoing transformation initiatives, including new approaches to pricing, product assortment, and targeted customer segmentation. CEO Reade Fahs credited these strategies with improving results across managed care, progressive, and outside prescription customer segments, which together saw double-digit comparable sales growth. The rollout of remote eye exam technology helped address prior challenges with optometrist shortages, stabilizing exam capacity and keeping store coverage healthy. Fahs highlighted that the company's pricing actions raised average ticket values without reducing conversion rates or customer satisfaction, indicating customer acceptance of these changes. Product mix shifts toward higher-value frames and investments in store associate training also contributed to the positive momentum, while ongoing operational discipline supported bottom line growth. The first quarter's results reinforced management's belief that National Vision's transformation is gaining traction. Looking forward, National Vision's raised full-year guidance is underpinned by continued investment in digital tools, personalized marketing, and new product offerings aimed at expanding its reach among higher-value customer segments. Incoming CEO Alex Wilkes outlined priorities to further segment and personalize the customer experience, while enhancing store capabilities and modernizing the product mix. Management emphasized the importance of cost efficiency, particularly as the company prepares for potential increases in tariffs on imported eyewear. CFO Chris Laden stated, 'We believe that we can mitigate potential higher tariff costs with pricing actions and cost reduction efforts to neutralize the tariff impact.' The leadership team acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainty and intends to balance growth investments with disciplined expense management as transformation initiatives continue to roll out during the year. Management attributed the quarter's performance to pricing actions, higher-value product launches, targeted customer segmentation, and the successful adoption of digital and remote exam capabilities. Targeted segmentation strategy: Focused efforts on managed care, progressive, and outside prescription customers led to double-digit comparable sales growth within these segments. These customers, who represent about half of National Vision's base, were identified as underdeveloped but high-value groups, helping to expand the company's addressable market. Pricing actions well-received: New pricing structures were implemented, particularly in the fourth and first quarters, resulting in higher average ticket values. Management reported no negative impact on exam-to-purchase conversion rates or Net Promoter Scores, suggesting customer acceptance of higher price points and an ability to offset inflationary pressures such as tariffs. Product mix modernization: The company began introducing more branded and higher-priced frames, including launches of L.A.M.B. and Ted Baker eyewear. Management noted that after the second quarter, the proportion of frames priced above $99 will double compared to the end of last year, aiming to attract a broader customer base and enhance the in-store experience. Digital and remote exam adoption: Approximately two-thirds of stores now offer remote eye exams, allowing more efficient use of optometrist resources and helping ensure broad store coverage. This technology is now embedded in operations, and management expects further efficiency gains over time. Leadership transition and new hires: The company announced a planned CEO succession, with Alex Wilkes set to take over from Reade Fahs. Other recent leadership additions include CFO Chris Laden and new executives with backgrounds in retail and healthcare, supporting the transformation agenda and operational execution. National Vision's outlook is shaped by continued transformation initiatives, evolving customer preferences, and the need to manage external cost pressures such as tariffs. Enhancing customer experience: Management is rolling out new digital selling tools, improving CRM systems, and personalizing marketing to better engage higher-value customer segments. These investments are intended to drive sales growth and foster customer loyalty as the market becomes more competitive. Tariff mitigation and cost control: The company is preparing for potential increases in tariffs on imported frames, with less than 10% of its cost of goods exposed to China. Management believes that pricing actions and ongoing cost reduction efforts can offset these headwinds, but notes the situation is fluid and not yet fully reflected in guidance. Store optimization and product innovation: Efforts to optimize store formats, test smaller locations, and introduce new branded products are expected to broaden the customer base and improve store economics. National Vision is also investing in associate training and evolving its assortment to support higher average ticket values and margin resilience. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the impact of ongoing product launches and pricing actions on average ticket values and customer mix, (2) execution of digital marketing and CRM enhancements to drive personalized engagement, and (3) the company's ability to manage cost pressures, particularly if tariffs on imported frames increase. Progress on store optimization and expansion will also be important signposts. National Vision currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34.8×. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it's free). 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