Jewellers search for more than golden eggs as gold prices soar

Time of India

29-04-2025

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Indian gold retailers trying to find a way out
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Pivoting the game plan
Gold prices are on fire, and they're leaving Indian retailers scorched, who are now looking for some respite on Akshaya Tritiya . Indian jewellery retailers are scrambling to adapt though, rolling out heavy discounts, spotlighting lower-purity or lighter jewellery, and nudging consumers toward alternatives like diamonds, silver, and digital gold. While some customers continue to show interest during festive periods, overall demand has slumped, forcing sellers to rethink strategy by offering EMIs, gold exchange schemes, and even promoting fashion jewellery to keep footfall alive during the Akshaya Tritiya rush.The safe-haven metal, also part of emotional attachment for Indians who lock up decades-old gold in lockers, is becoming too hot to handle and has been on a relentless sprint to hit new highs almost daily in recent days. The gold price rally was fueled by a weakening dollar, escalating trade war tensions, and growing fears of a global economic slowdown sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff threats.However, the yellow metal's prices eased on Monday in India after briefly crossing the Rs 1 lakh mark, correcting by 5% or Rs 4,700 per 10 grams, as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China provided relief to investors and a stronger dollar weighed on prices.But buyers are still hesitant. The rising prices have crimped consumer sentiment, impacting sales of gold that is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.In such periods, jewellery retailers face challenges of reduced footfall and pressure on sales volumes, as was observed in the last one-to-two years, Srikumar Krishnamurthy, Senior Vice President & Co-Group Head, Corporate Rating, ICRA, said.'Elevated prices negatively impact demand volumes for jewellery as most consumers are price sensitive and tend to delay non-essential purchases of gold and jewellery during periods of high volatility.'Demand for gold jewellery has dropped by 15% beginning from March, and if this rally continues, the recovery in demand may not happen, Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO of Senco Gold and Diamonds said.'So, whenever gold prices rise very quickly, consumers tend to wait for them to stabilise in the short term. If there's an increase in the value of business, there's usually a rise in revenue, but volumes take a hit. That's typically how it plays out. Once prices settle within a new range, consumers gradually return to the market and start buying again. This pattern has been consistent over the past 10 years—that's how I believe consumers behave,' Sen said.Gold retailers typically operate in a tightly margin-driven, price-sensitive environment. A near-4 per cent increase in gold prices in the first 15 days of March had brought down retail gold sales by nearly 25% compared to the same period last year at jewellers.Fluctuating rates tend to keep people on the fence, making them hold off in the hope that prices might soften, Arun Narayan, Vice President – Marketing and Retail at Tanishq , told ET Online.Narayan said that it was too early to say if Tanishq is also experiencing lower sales.The demand for gold is sluggish in the South Indian market too. Baby George, CEO of Joy Alukkas, said, compared to last March, demand is down by up to 25%.'What we have seen are mixed signals. There is still significant interest in buying gold. The last days of March saw celebrations like Gudi Padwa and Ugadi in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana. In mid-April, we had New Year festivals in Bengal and Tamil Nadu. These special occasions have clearly shown us that consumers are still interested in purchasing gold," said Narayan.At the same time, consumers are being careful and cautious about their purchases, he said.To counter falling sales volumes, retailers are now pulling out all the stops, offering heavy discounts to attract customers back into the fold.Discounts offered on gold in India touched a more than eight-month high last month. Indian dealers offered a discount of up to $41 an ounce over official domestic prices.Moreover, while gold remains both culturally significant and financially irreplaceable in India, consumers are increasingly exploring alternatives such as diamonds, silver jewellery, and lighter, lower-purity options—preferably 20 kt or 18 kt.Senco's diamond jewellery sale has gone up by 15 per cent in the last 3-4 months, the company's chief said.'Indians are turning to smaller-sized diamonds, as prices have surged significantly.'For incremental investments, many buyers are shifting towards gold ETFs, Sovereign Gold Bonds, or digital gold, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP and Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP.'However, these alternatives serve more as a temporary shift in strategy rather than a permanent replacement. Bulk physical purchases would likely resume only after a meaningful price correction, typically in the range of 5–10%. In the interim, households could prefer holding cash or liquid assets, waiting for more favourable price levels to re-enter the gold market with confidence.'Jewellery retailers facing the pressure of falling sales can adopt a mix of strategic, operational, and marketing initiatives to sustain demand and protect margins, Rahul Kalantri, Vice President, Commodities, Mehta Equities Limited, said.'Retailers can offer lightweight or minimalist designs to attract budget-conscious buyers. Moreover, they can promote silver, platinum, or fashion jewellery to cater to price-sensitive segments. They can also provide affordable options (gold-plated) with aesthetic appeal for customers who can't afford solid gold.'He also said that retailers can offer EMIs, promote gold savings schemes for future purchases, and encourage old gold exchange offers where customers pay only for making and design charges.Nevertheless, most organised retailers are relatively better placed to manage sharp fluctuations in gold prices, given their strong hedging practices and access to bank funding, said Krishnamurthy.Meanwhile, there is a growing interest in regulated investment options like Gold ETFs and related funds.The number of Gold ETF folios has increased more than 13 times from March 2020 to March 2025, offering a simple and efficient way for investors to access the gold market, Zerodha Zerodha Fund House said in a note.This shift suggests a growing demand for gold as an investment in its digital form, alongside traditional methods like buying jewellery or physical gold.In terms of taxation, Gold ETFs are taxed similarly to equities: long-term capital gains (LTCG) are taxed at 12.5% after holding for 12 months, while short-term capital gains (STCG) are taxed according to the income tax slabs. For physical gold, LTCG is taxed at 12.5% if held for over 24 months, and STCG is taxed according to the slab rates.