Oilers vs. Panthers prediction: Stanley Cup Game 4 odds, picks
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Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final went according to plan for the Florida Panthers.
The Cats were physical and boisterous, prompting the Edmonton Oilers to engage in the after-the-whistle chicanery that is a huge part of their identity.
Nobody was on their best behavior on Monday night, which is always good news for the Panthers, who are the masters of blurring the line between shenanigans and penalties.
In the end, there were 17 power plays – including 11 for Florida – and 140 penalty minutes in Game 3. It was terrific theater, but the Oilers will regret taking the bait.
The truth is that what happened in Game 3 was inevitable. The Panthers laid the foundation for the circus-like atmosphere of Monday night by getting under Edmonton's skin at every opportunity in the first two contests.
The Oilers could only take so much before things spiraled, which they did in an emphatic 6-1 victory for Florida.
Now, it's up to Edmonton to avoid a repeat performance in Game 4.
Oilers vs. Panthers prediction for Game 4
Stylistically, you'd think that the Oilers would benefit from an open, back-and-forth contest. Edmonton has speed to burn and skill to envy, so the more space out there, the better for the Oilers, right?
Against most opponents, you'd say absolutely. But the problem is that the Panthers are the most adaptable team of this era. Florida doesn't have the speed that Edmonton does, but the Cats are comfortable in frenetic games with a lot of pace, because they are ruthless on the counter-attack.
Florida's aggression forces you into mistakes, and playing with speed always makes you more susceptible to errors, so the Oilers may want to slow things down a bit and sacrifice some speed for control.
Edmonton's Jake Walman and Florida's Brad Marchand after the whistle during Game 3.
NHLI via Getty Images
That won't throw the Panthers for a loop; they can play any style they need, but it should keep the temperature down, which is paramount when you're playing the Cats, especially in their barn.
The temptation with Thursday night's contest is to assume that it will look a lot like the first three games of this series, with early goals and a lot of chaos. There will be plenty of bettors lined up to bet the over 6.5, plus the first-period over, given how this matchup has looked through what has essentially been 11.5 periods of play.
It may be wise to bet against that happening, not just because you'll get good numbers to swim against the current, but also because the Oilers may try to throw a changeup in Game 4 in order to take the sting out of what is pretty close to a must-win contest for them.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 pick
You can build a juicy same-game parlay by leaning into this hypothesis that Thursday night's battle will be closer to a snoozer than the electric spectacle we've grown accustomed to seeing when these two teams hit the ice.
The first leg will be the first period to end scoreless at +450. It's a dangerous bet, given how each of the first three games played out, but given how desperate the Oilers will be, it wouldn't be a shock to see a nervy start to this tilt.
The next two legs will hone in on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who should play monster minutes because of the way this schedule has shaped up. This is just the second game in the last six days.
McDavid is +250 to record at least five shots on goal in regulation, and Draisaitl is +154 to get to four.
To finish it off, we'll toss in the Oilers +126 on the moneyline, which gets us to 86/1 at FanDuel.
PICK: SGP – First quarter under .5 goals + Connor McDavid 5+ shots + Leon Draisaitl 4+ shots + Oilers moneyline (+8600, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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New York Times
35 minutes ago
- New York Times
After another Stanley Cup Final goalie benching, NHL netminders discuss the dreaded yank: ‘A brutal feeling'
The Edmonton Oilers' comeback in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final was electrifying. It was incredible for the Oilers, who looked headed for a 3-1 series hole after an abysmal first period and instead will return home for Game 5 with the series tied. It was incredible for Leon Draisaitl, who added to his legend by scoring his second overtime winner of this Cup Final alone, sending Edmonton to a 5-4 victory. It was incredible for the thousands of Oilers faithful back in Edmonton, who partied well into Thursday night outside of Rogers Place. Advertisement There is one player for whom it was less incredible, though. Goaltender Stuart Skinner was the biggest reason this miraculous comeback was even possible in the first place. He made several key saves in the first period while the Panthers dominated over the first 20 minutes. He was the Oilers' best player, standing tall in the crease to keep the deficit to only three goals. His reward? One of the most embarrassing moments any goalie will face: the dreaded yank. Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch spared Skinner the usual skate of shame, benching him for good during the second intermission after Skinner allowed three goals on 17 shots. It was the second straight game Knoblauch pulled Skinner from the net in favor of backup Calvin Pickard, and the third time he's done so this postseason. 'It's unfortunate for Stu to be pulled there,' Knoblauch said after the game. 'Our team was flat. We didn't give him any opportunities, again taking three penalties in the first period. Unfortunately we needed to change things up, and the change was great.' It's hard to lay much blame at Skinner's skates for the three goals he allowed (we'll go over that in more detail later). Rather, the decision was made to 'spark' a team that was getting thoroughly outplayed for the fourth straight period. It helps that the backup happens to be undefeated this posteason, and this time it seemed to work – to the tune of four unanswered Edmonton goals. Would the Oilers have re-focused after the intermission, and rallied for the win with Skinner still in net? We'll never know, but Pickard seems to think so. 'I felt for (Skinner) today,' Pickard said after the win. 'He came ready to play today and made some big saves early, we just didn't have it as a team early. I think (Knoblauch) just wanted to switch it up. If he was playing behind our team in the second, third and overtime he would've done what I did too.' Advertisement No goalie is immune to the yank, whether performance-related or not. Skinner hasn't played great this postseason with a .894 save percentage, but every netminder experiences it. Many times, it's through no fault of their own. It's a unique situation that unfairly punishes a player for the good of the team, but it's nothing new. Coaches have been doing it for decades, and likely will for decades to come. We thought it would be interesting to pick goalies' brains on the subject, so we asked a couple NHL netminders for their insight into the odd dynamic that has already unfolded multiple times in the Cup Final, and famously in the Western Conference Finals between Dallas and Edmonton. 'From a goalie perspective, the bottom line is you never want to get pulled,' Washington Capitals goalie Charlie Lindgren said. 'It's embarrassing. It's a brutal feeling. You always feel like you want to keep battling back.' Sometimes the pull comes because the goalie himself doesn't have his best that night, and the coach thinks a switch gives his team the best chance to get saves. That, along with giving Pickard a chance to knock some rust off after his injury, likely motivated Knoblauch to pull Skinner in Game 3. Sometimes, though, the yank is to simply send a message to the rest of the team. 'It's never easy to be the guy who's coming out of the net and the night's over with,' Lindgren said. 'That's not a fun thing to go through. Instinctually, especially for goalies at this level, there's so much heart, so much battle and so much compete. You always think that the next shot is going to be yours. You're going to find a way to keep your team in it.' Skinner was doing that on Thursday night: keeping his team in it. He made several great saves in the opening 20 minutes, and none of the goals he allowed were particularly soft. Advertisement The first was a screened shot by Florida's Matthew Tkachuk on a 5-on-3 power play from less than 20 feet away. Skinner wasn't able to see the release as he scrambled to look around two of his own players and Aleksander Barkov in front, and the save would've been tough even if he had. It's fair to criticize Skinner's rebound control on the second goal, as a shot spilled off his chest protector to Tkachuk's waiting stick in front of the net. But it was also a hard shot from point-blank range, and human reaction time has its limitations. I'd argue that on a shot from that spot, it's on the goalie to make the initial save and on the defenders to clean up the rebound, which Tkachuk instead netted for his second goal of the night. The third goal was a one-timer by Anton Lundell on the doorstep on a pass from behind the goal. There wasn't much Skinner could do on that other than what he did: gain depth, make himself big and seal any holes. Lundell placed the shot outside of Skinner's blocker and inside the left post. Having said all of that, the decision clearly worked. Pickard was good, as he's been all postseason, stopping 22 of the 23 shots he faced. He made a few timely saves — none bigger than a massive glove stop on Sam Bennett in overtime, clipping just enough of the puck to redirect the it into the crossbar moments before Draisaitl scored the winner. But Pickard wasn't the difference in the game after the goalie swap. The Oilers looked like a completely different team over the final 51 minutes. In the first period Florida held commanding edges shots (17-7), scoring chances (22-5) and high-danger chances (13-2) according to Natural Stat Trick. In the final 51 minutes Edmonton flipped that, outshooting the Panthers 28-23, and out-chancing them 20-10. 'We wanted to come out strong tonight, but they put us on our heels early and we were kind of lollygagging around a little bit,' Draisaitl said. Why professional players were 'lollygagging around' in the first period of a Stanley Cup Final game is an entirely different topic for another story. One thing is clear, though: Coaches believe benching their goalie sends a message to the team that can only be accomplished by such a drastic measure. The coach could easily sit the players in front of Skinner – the ones who were lollygagging – for a shift or two, but it doesn't have the same jarring effect. Advertisement 'When the goalie comes out, and he was the guy who started the game, and you're expecting to be a rock back there,' Lindgren explained. 'When he gets pulled it's a wake up call. You know your backup is going in. He's probably cold. He probably wasn't expecting to play. So it gives the players even more reason to sharpen up and better themselves.' Lindgren's goalie partner in Washington, Logan Thompson, agreed. 'You're sending a message,' Thompson said. '(The starter) has been your go-to guy and he's gotten you to this point. I think it's a 'holy s—' moment for the rest of the guys saying, 'He's not going to bail us out tonight. We need to change something about us. We're clearly not helping him out.' ' An NHL goalie typically knows when the pull is due to his own play. He is well aware of which goals he should've stopped, and which ones he did everything in his process correctly, but still gave up. 'As the game is going on you usually have an idea of how you're playing and the quality of goals you're giving up,' Lindgren said. Even with that understanding, goalies are hyper-competitive and hate being removed from the game in most cases. 'I think every goalie takes the blame when they get pulled, just knowing the nature of how competitive we are,' Thompson said. 'Most goalies always think they can do more or do better.' In the case of Thursday's Game 4 in Florida, the move worked to perfection. Pickard wasn't asked to do much for the majority of his 51 minutes in the crease, but he made timely saves and improved to 6-0 in the playoffs. There are plenty of cases in which it doesn't work. Look no further than Pete DeBoer's decision to pull Jake Oettinger from Game 5 of the Western Conference Final after allowing two goals that clearly weren't on him. Backup Casey DeSmith gave up another goal less than a minute after being thrown into the crease cold, and Dallas' season ended – as did DeBoer's tenure as their coach days later. Advertisement It's such an interesting concept. In the vast majority of cases, the coach is choosing to tab an inferior player at one of the most important positions in order to play a psychological trick on the rest of the team. Even the goalies – who are obviously more opposed to the idea than most – can see the potential merit. 'I think there is probably a time and place for it,' Lindgren said. 'If the team is playing lackadaisical and maybe the effort isn't there or they're hanging the goalie out to dry, then I could see (how) getting him out of there … would shake up and wake up the team a little bit. I've seen it happen. There are definitely times where that has worked.' There are also ways the process could be improved – namely involving the goalie coach, or even the goalie himself, more in the decision. Every situation is unique, but Thompson said he's never been consulted on a possible pull during the game. Some teams empower the goalie coach more than others, but there's no question they should have a say, considering the uniqueness of the position and the goalie coach's expertise. In the end, though, it's always the head coach's call. He assumes all of the risk, and the reward. Sometimes, as with DeBoer, it's the last big call he makes on that team's bench. Sometimes it sparks the team to a thrilling comeback to even the series in the Stanley Cup Final. (Photo of Pickard, left, and Skinner after Game 4: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Draisaitl, Oilers stun the Panthers to tie up the Stanley Cup Final
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Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Three takeaways: Both teams enjoyed similar dominant segments in Game 4, goaltending has been sneaky good
Are we witnessing one of the best Stanley Cup Final of all time? Through four games, it sure feels like it. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers have played four games that have each felt like their own mini-novellas. Advertisement Considering how talented and tightly matched both the teams are proving to be, it comes as no surprise that we're heading back to Edmonton with the series locked at two games apiece. Let's get to the Game 4 takeaways: DIFFERENT, BUT THE SAME The first period and the second period of Game 4 were quite similar in a lot of ways. Both saw one of the teams control play for much of the frame, and each period saw one club outscore the other by three goals. Penalties also played a large role. Florida was given three consecutive power plays during the first period, two of which they scored on, before the Oilers had their own opportunity with back-to-back power plays when the second period arrived. Advertisement Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' goal 3:33 into the middle frame while on the man advantage started a massive momentum shift in Edmonton's favor. Things finally evened out during the final 20 minutes, but by then there was so little time left, the margin for error had all but vanished and both teams were fighting like the next goal would be the last. '(The second period) was just a mirror of the first period,' said Panthers Head Coach Paul Maurice. 'They got into a little penalty trouble there, and we took advantage of it, and the second period was just the opposite. I think we were plus-three on the power play side early and minus-three on the power play side in the second half, and then we came out and even tight games, right? Both teams had some chances there, cracked some bars and had some chances that didn't go, and it's a bad break on the overtime winner. So three of the four games have gone to overtime, and I think that's probably the expectation of what we have going forward.' SOME GREAT GOALTENDING This year's Stanley Cup Final has seen plenty of goals scored. Advertisement The Panthers and Oilers have combined to put 32 pucks in the net during the first four games of the series. Both teams have struggled at times defensively, which is to be expected when two high-powered teams like Florida and Edmonton are going at it. From the outside looking in, it would be easy to point to all the offense and assume the goaltending has not been anything to write home about. Those who have been paying attention know that if not for some outstanding saves on both sides, we could have seen some pretty ridiculous scores so far in this series. 'From my point of view, there's been phenomenal goaltending in this series,' said Maurice. 'The numbers tell me I'm lying, the final score says I'm lying, but the goaltending has been incredible, because the game can break on a slot pass to Sam Bennett (and he) cracks a (crossbar). Everything is dangerous all the time, so there's a mental intensity, a mental toughness I think both teams show. The game's not going to be over till it is. You get three of four games in a final into overtime, you've get two really good, evenly matched teams.' Advertisement EXPECTED A LONG SERIES Before the Final began, you would've been hard pressed to find anyone who felt this series would be a quick one. A matchup between powerhouse teams like Edmonton and Florida was going to provide some fireworks, but the history between them has added some incredible drama and intrigue. Considering three of the four games we've seen so far have gone to overtime, it's pretty clear we're seeing two very evenly matched teams. The entertainment value of the Stanley Cup Final has been as high as any in recent memory, and there's no reason to think that's going to stop as we get into the latter stages of the series. Advertisement 'If you plan for seven games, it means you're losing three of them,' Maurice said after Game 4. 'You have to take that pain, eat it and use it to come back.' LATEST STORIES FROM THE HOCKEY NEWS - FLORIDA Panthers blow three-goal lead, lose Game 4 to Oilers in overtime Paul Maurice Makes This Prediction For Game 4 vs. Oilers Panthers host Oilers in Game 4 looking to take control of Stanley Cup Final Sound meter hit ridiculously high level when Sam Bennett scored during Game 3 of Stanley Cup Final Rod Brind'Amour doesn't agree with Paul Maurice, will go back to participating in playoff handshake lines Photo caption: Jun 12, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) defends against Edmonton Oilers right wing Corey Perry (90)during the third period in game four of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
