Russian Advance in Ukraine Is Slowing Despite Putin's Confidence
By and Aliaksandr Kudrytski
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Russian forces in Ukraine have made only small territorial gains this year amid steady resistance from Kyiv's military, undercutting President Vladimir Putin's assertions that his army has gained the upper hand in the war.
Battlefield data indicate that — despite a consistent advantage in manpower and steady gains — Putin's military has fallen far short so far of satisfying his war aims. The pace of Russia's main advance in eastern Ukraine has halved since the start of the year compared with a similar period through the end of 2024, according to data compiled by the DeepState open-source mapping service.
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Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Russia launches one of war's largest air attacks days after Ukraine's bomber raid
Russia launched a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles across broad swaths of Ukraine early Friday, killing at least six people and injuring dozens of others, days after Kyiv launched a daring raid on Moscow's fleet of strategic bombers. For residents of Kyiv, the night's soundtrack was familiar: the shrieking whir of drones, air raid sirens and large explosions overhead – whether from air defenses successfully downing missiles, or projectiles puncturing the capital. Three firefighters were killed in Kyiv, two civilians were killed in Lutsk, and another person was killed in Chernihiv, according to the Ukrainian State Emergency Service. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had used more than 400 drones and 40 missiles in the overnight attack, putting it among the war's largest. He said Moscow's attack injured 80 and targeted 'almost all' of Ukraine, listing nine regions, from Lviv in the west to Sumy in the northeast. Although Russia has pummeled Ukraine almost daily over three years of full-scale war, Ukrainians had been bracing for retaliation since Sunday, when Kyiv launched an audacious operation that struck more than a third of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers. In a call with his US counterpart Donald Trump on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow would have to respond to Kyiv's assault. Speaking aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump told reporters Ukraine 'gave Putin a reason to go in and bomb the hell out of them last night.' Russia's Ministry of Defense said its strikes were in response to what it called Kyiv's 'terrorist acts.' It was not immediately clear if the attack was the extent of Russia's pledged retaliation, or if Putin intends to escalate further. After the embarrassment of Kyiv's operation, there was a chorus of bellicose calls from pro-Kremlin pundits for a severe – potentially nuclear – response. Although Ukrainians had been buoyed last weekend by the news of Kyiv's successful operation, many were wary of how Russia might strike back. But after Friday's strikes, Kyiv residents told CNN they supported Ukraine's strikes against the aircraft Moscow has used to bomb Ukraine for more than three years. 'It didn't break us at all. The morale is as high as it was. We strongly believe in our armed forces,' said Olha, a 39-year-old from the capital who did not wish to give her last name. She said the apparent 'retaliation' from Russia was not so different to countless other nights of the war. 'Maybe (this was the retaliation), but maybe the retaliation is yet to come. Either way, it doesn't change our attitude towards the enemy or towards our country.' Meanwhile, Ukraine's general staff on Friday said it launched overnight strikes on two Russian airfields, where it said Moscow had concentrated many of the aircraft that had not been damaged in Kyiv's 'Spiderweb' operation last weekend. Ukraine stressed that the operation, which blindsided the Kremlin, had targeted the planes that Russia uses to launch missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and kill civilians. After Russia's large-scale attack Friday, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Moscow had 'responded' to its destroyed aircraft by once again 'attacking civilians in Ukraine.' As daylight broke, images from Kyiv showed flames rising over apartment buildings and firefighting crews at work, with residents picking through the debris of damaged apartments. Several cars parked in the streets below were covered with shards of glass and slabs of masonry torn from the walls of residential buildings. Ukraine's air force said Russia's barrage comprised 407 drones, six ballistic missiles, 38 cruise missiles and an anti-radar missile. Of those 452 projectiles, the air force said it had downed 406, including 32 of the cruise missiles and four of the ballistic missiles. The other two ballistic missiles did not reach their targets, it added. The strikes also hit Chernihiv, near the border with Belarus, which was rocked by 14 explosions from drones and ballistic missiles, including cruise missiles and Iskander-M missiles, local officials said. Five others were wounded in strikes in the northwestern city of Lutsk, near the border with Poland. Footage geolocated by CNN showed at least four missiles slamming into the city, kicking up fiery explosions on impact. The Russian Ministry of Defense said it had also intercepted and destroyed 174 Ukrainian drones from Thursday evening to early Friday morning and had destroyed three Ukrainian Neptune-MD guided missiles over the Black Sea. All week, Ukrainians have been bracing for Russia's retaliation to last weekend's drone attack, which struck 34% of Moscow's nuclear-capable bombers stationed at airfields as far away as Siberia. On Tuesday, Ukraine also launched an attack on the Kerch Bridge, the only direct connection point between Russia and the annexed Crimean Peninsula, with 1,100 kilograms of explosives that had been planted underwater. After Trump's call with Putin on Wednesday, the US president said his Russian counterpart had told him that Moscow would have to respond to Ukraine's assaults. Trump's account of the call gave no indication that he had urged Putin to temper his response, to the dismay of many in Ukraine. 'When Putin mentioned he is going to avenge or deliver a new strike against Ukraine, we know what it means. It's about civilians,' Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko told CNN earlier this week. 'And President Trump didn't say, 'Vladimir, stop.'' Despite Trump's support for recent peace talks in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia, on Thursday he signaled that he may be adopting a more hands-off approach, likening the war to a brawl between children. 'Sometimes you see two young children fighting like crazy,' Trump said in the Oval Office, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz looked on silently. 'They hate each other, and they're fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don't want to be pulled. Sometimes you're better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.'
2 hours ago
Wagner Group leaving Mali after heavy losses but Russia's Africa Corps to remain
DAKAR, Senegal -- The Russia-backed Wagner Group said Friday it is leaving Mali after more than three and a half years of fighting Islamic extremists and insurgents in the country. Despite Wagner's announcement, Russia will continue to have a mercenary presence in the West African country. The Africa Corps, Russia's state-controlled paramilitary force, said on its Telegram channel Friday that Wagner's departure would not introduce any changes and the Russian contingent will remain in Mali. "Mission accomplished. Private Military Company Wagner returns home,' the group announced via its channel on the messaging app Telegram. It said it had brought all regional capitals under control of the Malian army, pushed out armed militants and killed their commanders. Mali, along with neighbors Burkina Faso and Niger, has for more than a decade battled an insurgency fought by armed groups, including some allied with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. As Western influence in the region has waned, Russia has sought to step into the vacuum, sweeping in with offers of assistance. Moscow initially expanded its military cooperation with African nations by using the Wagner Group of mercenaries. But since the group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was killed in a plane crash in 2023, after mounting a brief armed rebellion in Russia that challenged the rule of President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has been developing the Africa Corps as a rival force to Wagner. Africa Corps is under direct command of the Russian defense ministry. According to U.S. officials, there are around 2,000 mercenaries in Mali. It is unclear how many are with Wagner and how many are part of the Africa Corps. Beverly Ochieng, a security analyst specializing in the Sahel for Control Risks consultancy, said the Russian defense ministry had been negotiating with Mali to take on more Africa Corps fighters and for Wagner mercenaries to join Russia's state-controlled paramilitary force. 'Since the death of Prigozhin, Russia has had this whole plan to then make the Wagner Group fall under the command of the Ministry of Defense. One of the steps they made was to revamp or introduce the Africa Corps, which is the way in which the Russian paramilitaries would retain a presence in areas where the Wagner group has been operating,' Ochieng said. Wagner has been present in Mali since late 2021 following a military coup, replacing French troops and international peacekeepers to help fight the militants. But the Malian army and Russian mercenaries struggled to curb violence in the country and have both been accused of targeting civilians. Last month, United Nations experts urged Malian authorities to investigate reports of alleged summary executions and forced disappearances by Wagner mercenaries and the army. In December, Human Rights Watch accused Malian armed forces and the Wagner Group of deliberately killing at least 32 civilians over an 8-month span. The announcement of Wagner's withdrawal comes as the Malian army and the Russian mercenaries suffered heavy losses during attacks by the al-Qaida linked group JNIM in recent weeks. Last week, JNIM fighters killed dozens of soldiers in an attack on a military base in central Mali. Rida Lyammouri, a Sahel expert at the Morocco-based Policy Center for the New South, said the major losses might have caused the possible end of Wagner's mission. 'The lack of an official and mutual announcement from both the Malian authorities and Wagner indicate possible internal dispute which led to this sudden decision. Simultaneously, this could point to a new framework for Russian presence in the country," he said. Replacing Wagner with Africa Corps troops would likely shift Russia's focus in Mali from fighting alongside the Malian army to training, said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. 'Africa Corps has a lighter footprint and focuses more on training, providing equipment and doing protection services. They fight less than the 'Rambo-type' Wagner mercenaries,' Laessing said.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump says it may be better to let Ukraine and Russia ‘fight for a while'
Donald Trump has said it may be better to let Ukraine and Russia 'fight for a while' rather than pursue peace immediately, as the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, urged him to increase pressure on Russia. During the Oval Office meeting, Trump voiced doubts about the potential success of peace talks, saying 'sometimes you're better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart'. The US president said he had told Vladimir Putin that the two countries were like 'two young children fighting like crazy in a park' when the two spoke by phone on Wednesday. Putin's reaction is not known, but the Russian leader would probably welcome the US agreeing to his previous calls for Washington to stay out of the conflict and stop providing military aid and support to Ukraine. Merz, who used his speaking time in the Oval Office to press the US president on Ukraine, told Trump that he wanted to work together to put more pressure on Russia and reminded Trump that the violence he abhorred seeing was a result of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. He told Trump that the German people owed the US gratitude for its role in defeating Nazi Germany in the second world war. 'America is again in a very strong position to do something on ending this war [in Ukraine], so let's talk about doing what we can,' he said. 'We are looking for more pressure on Russia, we should talk about that.' Related: The Guardian view on Ukraine's spectacular attack: 21st-century tactics still require support from allies | Editorial Russia has vowed to respond to Ukraine's daring drone operation 'how and when' it sees fit, the Kremlin warned, seeming to confirm reports that Putin had told Trump that Moscow was obliged to retaliate. Ukraine has been bracing for retaliation after its SBU security service carried out a surprise drone strike over the weekend, targeting four airbases and damaging up to 20 Russian warplanes deep inside the country, according to US officials. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, asked on Thursday what Moscow's response would be, said: 'How and when our military deems it appropriate.' Trump said Putin had 'strongly' told him that Russia would respond to the recent attacks on its airfields, during an unannounced phone call on Wednesday. The US embassy in Ukraine warned of a continuing risk of 'significant airstrikes' and advised its citizens to exercise caution. Hours after Trump and Putin spoke, Russia launched a series of missiles and drones across Ukraine overnight. At least five people, including a one-year-old boy, his mother and grandmother, were killed when a drone struck a residential building in the northern Ukrainian city of Pryluky. The child was the grandson of an emergency responder, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said. 'One of the rescuers arrived to respond to the aftermath right at his own home,' Zelenskyy said in a post on Telegram. 'It turned out that a Shahed drone hit his house.' In the southern city of Kherson, a large hole was seen in an administration building after missile attacks by the Russian army. But Russian officials have suggested that Moscow has yet to respond to Ukraine's weekend drone attack, which came a day before two bridges collapsed, killing seven people – attacks Moscow blamed on Ukrainian sabotage. After Ukraine carried out its unorthodox operation using drones smuggled into Russia on trucks, pro-Kremlin war bloggers and prominent commentators posted on Russian media to demand retribution, with some calling for nuclear retaliation. While Russian officials have previously indicated their willingness to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, analysts consider the deployment of such weapons on the battlefield highly unlikely at this stage of the war. Russia's nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to attacks that pose a 'critical threat' to the country's sovereignty. In a podcast for the independent outlet Meduza, Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russian nuclear forces, rejected suggestions that Ukraine's recent drone strikes could justify such a response. He argued the operation did not threaten Russia's sovereignty or territorial integrity, nor did it undermine the retaliatory capacity of its strategic nuclear arsenal. A nuclear strike would also be strongly condemned by China, Russia's most influential ally, with Xi Jinping previously warning Putin against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Instead, as in past responses to Ukrainian military successes, Moscow may launch a wave of deadly ballistic missile strikes – or deploy its experimental Oreshnik missile, which was used at least once last year. Ukraine has intensified its sabotage operations over the past week, including detonating underwater explosives beneath a key bridge linking Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. On Wednesday, a visibly angry Putin for the first time reacted to the Ukrainian attacks, accusing Kyiv of 'organising terrorist attacks'. 'How can we have meetings like this under these conditions? What is there to talk about? Who has negotiations with … terrorists?' he said. Trump has not publicly commented on the Ukrainian drone operation, but sources who reportedly discussed it with him told Axios he described the attack as 'strong' and 'badass' and saw it as a setback to his diplomatic initiative to end the war. While the drone strikes dealt a tangible blow to Russia's military capacity and offered a morale boost for Kyiv, the broader picture remains less rosy for Ukraine. More than three years after launching its invasion, Russia is largely on the offensive, making steady battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine and continuing to pound Ukrainian cities and civilians with drones and missiles. Putin's forces have been advancing further into Ukraine's northern region of Sumy, threatening the regional capital after taking more than 150 sq km of the area in less than two weeks. With Putin showing no willingness to agree to a lasting ceasefire, Ukrainian officials and the military are preparing for a Russian summer offensive, with Moscow intent on advancing into the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
