Conclave: What time will we see black or white smoke? Past elections give clues

Yahoo

07-05-2025

More than 130 cardinals will arrive in Vatican City within the week to participate in the upcoming papal conclave, selecting Pope Francis' successor. Though the process is done in secrecy, thousands of onlookers in Rome will await a signal in the sky to learn when the new pontiff is chosen.
If black smoke plumes over the Vatican, observers know a new pope has yet to be chosen. If white smoke is spotted, folks will know a new pope has been selected to lead the Catholic Church. Shortly after white smoke appears, the new pope is introduced to the world.
Pope Francis, the church's 266th pontiff, died on Easter Monday, April 21. After spending much of the year in the hospital, he died from a stroke and irreversible heart failure at the age of 88.
Though he was known for his progressive ideals, Francis' work may have helped create a further divide among the more conservative and liberal patrons of the Catholic Church.
Because there may be stronger ideals upheld by cardinals eligible to select the new pope, the upcoming conclave may take longer than usual, Matthew Gabriele, a medieval studies professor at Virginia Tech, told USA TODAY.
As the conclave approaches, here's what to know about the religious event and how the general public stays informed about when a new pope is selected.
More: Vatican's 'May Madness': Will new pope be progressive or will church turn back the clock?
When is the upcoming conclave?
The first day of the conclave is Wednesday, May 7.
Cardinals attend the Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice Mass at St Peter's Basilica, before they enter a conclave on March 12, 2013, in Vatican City to choose the successor of Pope Benedict XVI, who ended up being Pope Francis. (Editors note: A fisheye lens has been used for this picture.)
What is a conclave?
A papal conclave is an election of a new pope, conducted by the College of Cardinals − bishops and Vatican officials selected by the pope. The cardinals are tasked with voting for one of their colleagues to take over the role of pontiff. As of May 1, 135 cardinals are eligible to vote in the conclave, according to The Holy See's College of Cardinals Dashboard.
During the conclave, the cardinals are sequestered. They may not communicate with the "outside world" and vice versa.
Before voting, the cardinals discuss the needs and challenges facing the Catholic Church. They then gather in St. Peter's Basilica to invoke the guidance of the Holy Spirit on who should be the successor, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
(Editor note: A fisheye lens has been used for this picture) Cardinals attend the Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice Mass at St. Peter's Basilica in Rome before they enter a conclave to decide who the successor would be for Pope Benedict XVI on March 12, 2013.
For the actual election, the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel, take an oath of secrecy and seal the church's doors. Each cardinal votes by secret ballot. He says a prayer and then drops his ballot in a large chalice, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops.
If one candidate does not receive a two-thirds majority vote, another election is held. This process is repeated until one candidate has received the necessary votes.
The longest conclave in history lasted nearly three years (34 months) with the election of Pope Gregory X in 1271, according to EWTN Vatican. On the flip side, Pope Francis was elected just one day after the conclave began in 2013.
More: How accurate is the movie 'Conclave' about the election of a new pope?
What does the black and white smoke during a conclave mean?
Black smoke rises from the chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican City, indicating that no decision has been made after the first voting session on the second day of voting for the election of a new pope March 13, 2013. Roman Catholic Cardinals started a conclave on Tuesday to elect a successor to Pope Benedict, who abdicated last month.
Because the cardinals are sequestered during a conclave, black or white smoke, which bellows from a Sistine Chapel chimney, is used to represent the cardinals' decisions for the day.
If one candidate doesn't receive the necessary two-thirds vote, the ballots are burned in a stove with a mixture of chemicals to produce black smoke. The black smoke indicates more voting is ahead.
If a candidate is selected, the final round of ballots are burned with chemicals to produce white smoke.
What time to expect conclave smoke signals
There isn't an exact timing for the smoke signals that occur during a conclave, but experts use past conclaves to make educated guesses.
Gabriele said that on the conclave's first day − May 7 − it is likely that the cardinals will only conduct one round of voting, as the majority of the day will be spent taking care of introductory business, including a special sermon led by one of the church's top officials. White or black smoke could be expected around 7-8 p.m. local time (1-2 p.m. ET).
If a final decision isn't made the first day, folks can expect the next smoke signal to be shared mid-morning the next day − Thursday, May 8.
Typically, the cardinals can fit four rounds of voting into one day, if one candidate is not selected. If this is the case, Gabriele said smoke signals will occur around mid-morning, noon, mid-afternoon and evening.
White smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel and the bells of St Peter's Basilica rang out on March 13, 2013, signaling that Roman Catholic Cardinals had ended their conclave and elected a new leader, who chose the name Pope Francis.
The Catholic magazine America predicts the same, with signals at around 10:30 a.m., noon, 5:30 p.m. and after 7 p.m. local time − (4:30 a.m., 6 a.m., 11:30 a.m. and after 1 p.m. ET).
In 2013, during the conclave in which Pope Francis was elected, the first black smoke signal was spotted at about 7:41 p.m. local time, America Magazine reported.
Editor's note: This story has been updated to add a new link.
Greta Cross is a national trending reporter at USA TODAY. Story idea? Email her at [e-mail].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Conclave: What time will we see black or white smoke? What we know