It's America's duty to mediate Asia's crisis
The line of control slices like a sword cut across the mountain ranges of Kashmir, the Himalayan territory bitterly disputed by India and Pakistan for almost 80 years. Time and again, the enemies have come to blows only for calm to be restored, often with American mediation.
Do not assume that the pattern must always repeat itself. The latest crisis was triggered by a heinous terrorist attack on a tourist camp inside Indian-administered Kashmir last month, claiming 26 civilian lives. India retaliated on Tuesday by striking nine targets in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and elsewhere in its neighbour.
As a spiral bloodshed threatens to take hold between two nuclear powers, who will mediate a resolution? We could once have assumed that America would step forward to lead a concerted effort to broker de-escalation. When India and Pakistan mobilised for war in 2002, Colin Powell, the late US secretary of state, engaged in shuttle diplomacy between New Delhi and Islamabad, joined by our then Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw.
Will anything like this happen now? Donald Trump scorns the idea of an American obligation to resolve distant crises, even between nuclear-armed states. Today his only comment was: 'I just hope it ends very quickly.'
But it may not end just by itself. The leaders of India and Pakistan surely understand the potentially catastrophic consequences of further escalation. Having skirmished along the line of control for decades, they are adept at managing their rivalry, signalling resolve to domestic audiences while also offering subtly conciliatory messages to decision-makers on the other side.
Today's statement from the Indian defence ministry was a masterpiece of this genre, announcing 'focused strikes' on 'terrorist infrastructure' inside its neighbour, while also stressing that 'no Pakistani military facilities were hit, reflecting India's calibrated and non-escalatory approach'.
Today, Pakistan's own retaliation seems both inevitable and imminent. If General Asim Munir, the Pakistani military chief, achieves a similar balance between robustness and restraint, this crisis could yet dissipate.
But General Munir may have no wish to de-escalate. His proclaimed doctrine, after all, is to return a heavier blow than any that Pakistan receives. He also leads a morally bankrupt military establishment which has for decades armed and hosted terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, whose sole purpose is to attack India.
Whether Mr Trump wishes it or not, America is the only credible mediator in this crisis. The EU does not have the geopolitical weight. China, as Pakistan's closest ally, is mistrusted by India. It was, in retrospect, an unfortunate coincidence that Sir Keir Starmer should have concluded a free trade agreement with India on Tuesday only hours before the latter fired missiles at Pakistan. In any case, Britain can only have a credible role if America takes the lead.
Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, will be fully aware of the risks of an uncontrolled crisis between two enemies with over 300 nuclear warheads between them. Unless calm returns soon, he should ask his boss for permission to begin a new round of shuttle diplomacy.
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