Fewer people are dying from COVID. But experts say the virus is unpredictable
The mortality rate for COVID-19 has steadily declined since 2023.
Experts say vaccinations and medicines have reduced the severity and lethality of the virus.
But some warn the virus can be unpredictable. The number of Australians dying from COVID-19 continues to decline — but experts warn the virus is unpredictable and have warned against complacency. Mortality data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released last week shows that deaths from COVID-19 have steadily declined since 2023. The number of people dying with COVID-19 — where it is deemed not the primary cause of death — is also decreasing. However, experts have pointed to the unpredictability of the virus and the common rise in infections that occur during the winter months to warn against complacency.
The latest ABS provisional mortality statistics report gives a snapshot of COVID-19 deaths as certified by doctors and coroners. The data may not be perfect, as the cause of death can be complex, but it suggests deaths from COVID-19 have dropped dramatically. In 2023, there were 4,609 deaths from COVID-19, and last year, there were 3,871 deaths from COVID-19 recorded.
Data from the first four months of 2025 indicate 514 COVID-19-related deaths so far this year. Paul Griffin, an associate professor of medicine at the University of Queensland, who has also run clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccinations, said it's great news that mortality rates are declining. "This is likely due to the availability of oral anti-viral medications, vaccinations and greater understanding COVID-19," he told SBS News. "As health professionals, it's clearly great to see less people dying from COVID-19, but it's important to look at that in context. "There are still a number of people who get very sick, and the effects of long-COVID-19 can be debilitating." Griffin said that experts are still working to understand how COVID-19 adapts and changes, and what the long-term health impacts could be. While the downward trend in mortality is "encouraging," he cautioned that the virus remains "very unpredictable".
Griffin explained that COVID-19 can mutate, with new strains emerging frequently. "Just recently we've seen a new strain: NB.1.8.1, which seems to have different characteristics from other variants," he said. "When it comes to predicting the future of COVID-19, in terms of severity and mortality, I would be reluctant to say the decreasing rates of mortality will continue. "There's still a lot we don't know."
The mortality data from previous years indicates that COVID-19 deaths increase from May to July — data yet to be collected for this year. Catherine Bennett, chair in epidemiology at Deakin University, said there were a range of ways emerging strains of COVID-19 can impact people. "COVID can be different from one infection to the next in the same person," she said. "The other important thing to remember is long COVID, and we don't have good data now and we don't know if our immunity is helping protect us from long COVID."
While long-term immunity from multiple boosters is hard to measure, Bennett emphasised the importance of vaccines, particularly now as winter sets in. "It takes a couple of weeks to get the best out of a vaccine to actually get that boosting happening," she said. "And equally, the vaccines last a couple of months. It's when they have their greatest impact and six to eight weeks is the usual duration for our waves. "So, actually, having a vaccine now as winter comes is the right time." Bennett said that a low number of COVID-19 cases in the summer months of 2025 could mean there may be a higher number of infections this winter, as people will be less resistant to the virus. "It's a sad irony that a quiet summer in infections may lead us to seeing more people exposed in winter," she said. She said the more people that get vaccinated, the better the public health outcomes would be, especially for vulnerable groups. A 2024 report from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance found that children aged from 12 months to 5 years old had lower vaccination rates in 2023 than in 2020.
Griffin explained that the mortality rates of viruses like COVID-19 and influenza increases in winter for two main reasons. Firstly, they can survive longer in winter months when there is decreased sunlight, lower temperatures, and lower relative humidity. The other factor is human behaviour. "When it is colder, people are more likely to be indoors and in closer proximity to others. There can also be decreased ventilation and airflow as people may close windows to keep the cold out," he said. "Large indoor gatherings can be a hotbed for the flu and COVID-19." His advice is to ventilate where possible with airflow and air purifiers, and to avoid other people when you have flu-like symptoms such as a cough or sore throat.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
Queensland farmers urge home gardeners to be vigilant as tomato virus strategy shifts
Queensland farmers are urging home gardeners planting tomatoes, chillies and capsicums to be vigilant over fears a highly contagious virus will spread. The state is continuing to restrict the movement of seeds, plants and fruit, as well as machinery, equipment and packaging from areas affected by tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV). First detected in South Australia last year, it has since been found on a farm in Victoria, but experts and industry have abandoned eradication efforts and will instead move to a management strategy. Farmers, fearing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, are pleading with industry and home gardeners alike to hold the line. The virus is not harmful to humans, but causes brown or yellow spots to appear on leaves, fruit and stems of tomatoes, capsicums and chillies. The infected fruit can ripen irregularly or be deformed. It can reduce crop yields by 70 per cent, and there is no treatment or commercially available varieties of tomato that are resistant to the disease. Acting Victorian chief plant health officer Stephen Dibley said efforts to rid Australia of the virus had failed. "The biology of the virus makes it very hard to eradicate," Dr Dibley said. Queensland remains free of the virus, but Dr Dibley said there could be undetected cases. "We're still trying to understand where these new detections have come from." As well as tomatoes, Queensland grows 66 per cent of the national capsicum crop and 90 per cent of the chilli crop. Biosecurity Queensland chief plant health manager Michael Reid said the movement control order was extended for three months on March 16. Once it expired, Mr Reid said a team of experts would revisit the order to assess the risk to Queenslanders and production systems. "We will be taking a risk-based approach to our regulation, making sure that we protect our industries," he said. In significant growing areas like Bundaberg, farmers are conducting voluntary in-field testing for peace of mind that their crops are virus-free. Over the past 10 months, farmer group Bundaberg Fruit and Vegetable Growers has held almost weekly biosecurity meetings to monitor where locals are sourcing their seedlings from. Chief executive Bree Watson said the National Management Group's decision would change how farmers managed and monitored the virus. "It shifts the responsibility for monitoring and containing it more onto industry and individual businesses than it does on government departments," Ms Watson said. She urged home gardeners to take part in the biosecurity effort and learn what to look for in their own vegetable patches. "They should be checking their plants regularly for anything that's showing signs of disease." Ms Watson said it was especially important for home gardeners to make sure their seeds and seedlings came from reputable suppliers. Despite being far from the southern border, north Queensland's tomato-growing region around Bowen, south of Townsville, was on high alert. "This tomato virus is a little humdinger," Bowen-Gumlu Growers Association president Carl Walker said. "We've got hundreds of millions of dollars a year just in tomatoes alone in this region … it could seriously destroy the tomato industry across Australia if it's allowed to spread. "It's a wake-up call for all growers to be very vigilant with their biosecurity because it can destroy our industry just, bang, like that. "If we do get it, God help us … it's hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of production and thousands of jobs, which is not what our economy needs." While the state has yet to contend with an outbreak, the virus is already causing losses. New Zealand suspended imports from all Australian states apart from Queensland when the virus was detected in South Australia. Tomato and capsicum seeds from Australia must also be tested before they arrive. In 2023, Australia sent more than 530,000 kilograms of tomatoes to New Zealand. While exports account for only a small portion of sales compared to the $500 million domestic market, Ms Watson said it was a vital avenue for growers who had access to it. In a statement, New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries said: "We are closely monitoring the situation in Australia and if there is any significant change in distribution, or which crops it (ToBRFV) is affecting, we will review the current import rules." "Although Australia has announced they will no longer be pursuing eradication, all of the controls that have been in place to limit spread of the virus remain."
ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
Respect Victoria challenges men to question masculinity stereotypes in new ad campaign
Alex Mills feels very comfortable with the kind of man he is. But it's taken until the age of 40, a serious run-in with anxiety and depression and plenty of introspection to get there. "I'd just internalised a lot of that, so when I found myself in a really vulnerable space, opening up about that sort of stuff was really hard," he says. "That experience has always really stuck with me." Opening up is hard — for men, in particular — because it's in stark opposition to social pressures and stereotypes that expect toughness and stoicism. These pressures are fleshed out in a new campaign by Respect Victoria that has boiled down 18 months of research and conversations with Victorian men. It found that men who subscribed to macho stereotypes that included aggression, suppressing emotion and hypersexuality were 17 times more likely to commit gendered violence. Research manager Dr Stephanie Lusby says the campaign is about showing men it is possible to buck those expectations. "It's not about calling men perpetrators as a general bloc," she says. "It's about saying we've all got a part to play in finding avenues to change, resetting the social norms that allow violence to happen." Alex Mills is one of the 12 Victorian men featured in the campaign. All of them speak openly and honestly about what kind of man they want to be. Some have been on the receiving end of violence while others, like Alex, have waded through mental health issues. "There's lots of men out there who are really wrestling with this stuff, either in their own lives or maybe working with young people, or other men around them," he says. "A lot of that gets drowned out by the really big, loud, toxic voices. "I mean, you can't kind of talk about masculinity in 2025 without someone like Andrew Tate or a similar online influencer coming up." Respect Victoria drew on surveys of 3,500 men aged 18 to 45 about their attitudes and behaviours around masculinity. Dr Lusby says many men feel pressure to live up to harmful stereotypes, even if they do not personally endorse them. And that throughout the study, it became clear many men wanted to help prevent gendered violence but were not sure how to go about it. "Lots of men in the focus groups we were doing were saying that they wanted to do more, but that they weren't perpetrators … and so what was their role?" Dr Lusby says. "Not wanting to do more harm came out as a theme quite a bit … and so one of the things that we want to show in this campaign is the stories of men who have gone on their own journeys of building relationships that feel safer." The figures around violence against women in Australia are staggering. According to the Australian Institute of Family Studies, since the age of 15, more than 1 in 3 women in Australia have experienced physical or sexual violence at the hands of a man. The growing list of murdered women's names feels unrelenting. Names like Jill Meagher, Aiia Maasarwe, Celeste Manno, and Samantha Murphy stoke rage and grief in the community. But there has also been some backlash. A Hosier Lane mural featuring the faces of women who have been killed was recently defaced with graffiti reading "war on men". Dr Lusby hopes this campaign will help engage men who might see themselves reflected in it and encourage them to push back against harmful behaviour and attitudes. "Lots of previous campaigns have been about teaching — do this and don't do that," she say. "This one is about listening and I think that that's a really important shift. Respect Victoria's campaign, called What Kind of Man Do You Want to Be? launches on Wednesday. Alex hopes that sharing his experience prompts other men to open up. "There're so many different ways to be a man," he says. "You can be strong, but you can also be vulnerable. You can be sensitive, you can be caring, compassionate, you can be scared. "I really hope this campaign … gets men thinking about how actually there's a whole bunch of ways that I can be. And they're all OK."
ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
Here are the current rules on isolating when you're sick this flu season
I don't know about you, but the times of having to quarantine due to COVID-19 feel like a distant memory. But around this time each year, we're reminded that the virus is still active, as are many other serious respiratory illnesses during "flu season". There have been more than 65,000 cases of COVID-19 so far this year nationwide, more than 81,000 Influenza cases and 50,000 cases of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), according to the Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also designated a new strain known as NB.1.8.1, which is now the dominant variant in China and Hong Kong, as a "variant under monitoring". So, what has changed when it comes to quarantine rules? And do you still have to isolate if you or a family member has a respiratory illness? Advanced epidemiologist Anne Maree Baldwin says we're in a different situation now than five years ago when COVID-19 first arrived in Australia. "We had a new virus in a population without immunity, which was expected to have devastating impacts," says the public health expert from the Sunshine Coast/Kabi Kabi lands. "But now all or almost all of the population has some immunity to COVID through vaccination and having the disease." We are no longer required by law to quarantine or isolate when we have COVID-19. But Ms Baldwin says it is recommended. "Stay home and away from others when you have symptoms, irrespective of whether it's COVID or another respiratory illness," she says. "If you must go out, we ask people to wear a mask, avoid indoor or crowded situations, and keep away from others as best you can." Dr Libby Sander is an associate professor of organisational behaviour at Bond University on the Gold Coast/Kombumerri. She says there has been a culture shift since the pandemic back to a place where some employees feel obligated to go back to work even if they're unwell. "I'm often hearing [about instances] where people are being expected to go to work when they're sick because of staff shortages or they just feel obliged to go in because of the workload. "If you are sick, you shouldn't go to work, no-one wants you to make them sick." You can be infectious with respiratory illness from up to 48 hours before your symptoms start. So, if you've had a loved one or housemate at home who's been unwell, should you go to work? Ms Baldwin says it comes down to organisational policy. "Just communicating first and foremost, so everyone's aware," she says. "In general, quarantine isn't needed if exposed to COVID, we just ask that you stay away from others if you develop symptoms." She says it's particularly important to avoid people more likely to get severely sick, including immunocompromised people, older people, infants, and pregnant women. Dr Sander says working from home arrangements can provide people with security and flexibility. "If you're not really unwell you can keep working, you're not worrying about infecting other people … so I think flexibility is really important." In general, you don't automatically need to take a rapid antigen tests (RAT) after being around someone who's been sick. But it is recommended if you start developing symptoms or are planning on visiting a high-risk setting like aged care facilities, disability care, hospitals, or other healthcare settings. Ms Baldwin says testing is important for people who are either very sick or need antiviral medicine. "We have the RAT tests and they're widely available now in supermarkets and pharmacies, often for about $10," she says. "Some can test for four viruses, Influenza strains A and B, COVID and RSV. "The RATs are helpful for a quick result, which is important when the COVID and influenza antiviral should be started in a day or two of symptom onset." A diagnosis for whooping cough requires a PCR test (polymerase chain reaction) from a GP to receive the necessary antibiotics. Chief medical officer at Healthdirect Australia, Nirvana Luckraj, says if you have tested positive for respiratory illness, "you should stay at home until all of your acute symptoms have gone". She says acute symptoms include sneezing, coughing and a sore throat. "If you still have acute symptoms like a cough after seven days, you may still be infectious. You should continue to wear a mask and physically distance whenever possible." Our experts say it's important to prepare yourself each year. "We see COVID waves and whooping cough at any time of the year and most RSV is actually at this time of year," Ms Baldwin says. "So being prepared is important and the best way to do that is vaccinate." You can get both the COVID and influenza vaccines at the same appointment — the Australian Department of Health advises that it is safe to do this and doctors and pharmacists will now allow this. This is general information only. For personal advice, you should see a qualified medical practitioner.
