How often does it flood in Carolina Beach? More often than you probably think
A new research paper raises concerns that coastal flooding in places like Carolina Beach is occurring much more frequently, and lasting longer, than official statistics show.
By using localized sensors instead of relying on tidal gauges, which are often miles away from coastal areas that frequently flood, the study by researchers from N.C. State and the University of North Carolina showed how many instances of non-storm related flooding is slipping through the official cracks.
"Our research shows you need land-based measures of flooding to capture the burden on coastal residents, which can inform policy and planning decisions moving forward,' said Dr. Katharine Anarde, a coastal engineer with N.C. State and co-author of the study.
The paper, "Land-based Sensors Reveal High Frequency of Coastal Flooding," was published June 2 in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
Dr. Miyuki Hino, a city and regional planning expert from UNC and the other co-author of the paper, said the study's finding are a real wake-up call for coastal communities.
'The time for getting your head around the problem and developing potential solutions and evaluating what adaptions will work in your town, that time is now," she said. "This study really points to the urgency of this problem.'
Anarde and Hino also are part of the Sunny Day Flooding Project, an initiative to help researchers, officials and residents better understand chronic flooding in coastal communities and the impact it has on people, property and businesses in those areas.
LIVING WITH WATER: Why nature-based climate solutions are growing in popularity in the Wilmington area
Carolina Beach is a prime example of a coastal community in the bulls-eye of our changing climate. Rampant development − especially on the town's north end, decades-old and overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems, and rising seas means low-lying areas already susceptible to flooding are seeing more and more impacts from non-storm tidal events. The result is inundated streets, dangerous driving conditions, increased salt water wear-and-tear on infrastructure and property, and residents sometimes having to wade through water just to access homes and businesses.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, high-tide, sunny day or nuisance flooding − which is flooding that's not associated with storm surge kicked up by a storm − is happening twice as often as it did in 2000.
But the new study asserts that the actual number of incidents of flooding places vulnerable coastal areas like Carolina Beach experience is even greater.
Currently, there are two widely accepted 'thresholds' used to infer flooding on land based on tide gauge data: NOAA's high tide flooding threshold and the National Weather Service's minor flood threshold. But Wilmington's official tidal gauge is at the base of the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge, nearly 14 miles north of Carolina Beach Town Hall.
By using land-based sensors installed in flood-prone areas of Carolina Beach, Beaufort and Sea Level, the last two communities in Carteret County, researchers found flooding in the three N.C. coastal areas to be much more rampant than what was being officially reported − sometimes several magnitudes more.
From May 2023 through April 2024, Carolina Beach flooded 65 days. Data from the local sensors also showed the flooding was lasting longer than what was captured by the federal models.
Hinro and Anarde said the discrepancies between flooding on land and tide-gauge estimates are due to unique characteristics of each community, including topography and drainage issues, and incorporating heavy rainfall events that cannot be captured at tide gauges.
The researchers added that coastal flooding will become much more frequent and widespread in the coming years and decades due to sea-level rise fueled by climate change, making the value of having local data that much more valuable.
WATER WOES: As seas continue to rise, Carolina Beach mulls solutions to its chronic flooding woes
For residents in these coastal communities, the study's findings probably don't come as a surprise.
The incessant flooding also causes headaches for local officials looking for solutions that are likely to be expensive, unpopular, or both.
In Carolina Beach, the town has partnered with the Sunny Day Flooding Project and a group of local residents to develop possible mitigation efforts in response to the chronic flooding woes in and around Canal Drive. Those potential solutions have been fed into a computer model that simulates a number of factors impacting flooding in the town, including wind, rain, groundwater levels and infrastructure limits.
Those adaptation options, all of which carry pros and cons, will be presented to town council at its July meeting.
With flooding concerns expected to keep increasing, Anarde and Hinro said they are eager to keep their research going to help local communities in their ongoing adaptation efforts. But like many scientific endeavors around the country, their research is largely funded by Washington, and that's creating a lot of uncertainty these days amid moves by the Trump administration to rein in federal spending.
Still, the researchers said they are determined to keep pushing to help coastal communities become aware and develop mitigation strategies that work for their specific situations and towns.
"This isn't a future problem," Anarde said. "This is a now problem."
Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on X/Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from the Green South Foundation and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full editorial control of the work.
This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: How often does it flood in Carolina Beach, NC?
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