May 7 Hong Kong (Happy Valley) form analysis

New Paper

06-05-2025

Race 1 (1,650m)
5 Tradition's last-start run from barrier 13 on the all-weather is best ignored. Instead, go on his second-placed finish at this course and distance two runs back, which sets him up well to bounce back.
8 Harry's Hero backs up quickly from last week, when he finished just half a length off California Moxie. He can go one better, although shifting out to barrier 9 from 1 does complicate the speed map.
2 Podium resumed from barrier 11 last start and was trapped wide without cover over the 1,200m. He draws awkwardly in barrier 10, but his form is solid enough to keep him in the conversation.
3 The Khan is yet to place from seven runs at Happy Valley, but his latest effort came with clear excuses. He is not without a chance if things unfold his way.
Race 2 (1,000m)
12 Ace Talent was solid from barrier 12 last time, leading until Day Day Victory collared him late. Barrier 4 improves his chances from a speed map perspective and enhances his winning claims.
3 Day Day Victory scored last start. If he fronts up in the same form, he will be hard to beat again - especially in pole position.
4 Ragnarr has been edging closer to a breakthrough since dropping into the cellar grade, picking up two placings from three Class 5 attempts. He is drawn widest, will likely be ridden for luck, but look for him late.
6 Ruby Sailing is a hard horse, but he has trialled impressively and shapes as the dark horse who could bob up at odds.
Race 3 (2,200m)
11 Perfect Pairing is eligible for Class 5 but remains in Class 4 on the light weight. He has one second to his name, that came last start at this course and distance when he stormed home and missed by under a length.
3 Serangoon ran third from barrier 11 last time. A better mid-draw can see his tactics revert to how they were when he won four runs ago.
8 Management Folks picked up his second course and distance win last time and always warrants respect over the 2,200m trip.
6 Rosewood Fleetfoot is lightly raced. He showed two runs ago when surprising in third, but he was poor on the lead and weakened sharply last start. A change of tactics may give him a better chance of fighting out the finish.
Race 4 (1,200m)
2 Goko Win made his Class 4 debut last start but was drawn widest in barrier 12. He ran an eye-catching fifth behind all-the-way winner Lucky Planet, and moving into an inside draw should boost his prospects.
4 Majestic Delight showed big improvement second-up in the same race as Goko Win, closing in nicely into third. David Eustace has given him a trial, which was a promising piece of work suggesting he will come on again.
3 Smart Fighter gets more suitable conditions following three runs over unfavourable distances. Five runs ago, he defeated Masterofmyuniverse in a race like this, which reads well and puts him in good stead to be competitive, especially drawn low in barrier 2.
9 Good Prospect is knocking on the door for his first win after a series of solid efforts, but he has drawn a bit sticky compared to last time when he had barrier 1.
Race 5 (1,650m)
4 Mighty Commander returned to Class 4 last time, jumped from barrier 11 but did too much work leading and faded late into sixth. When he won in this grade previously, he was ridden quieter, and a return to those tactics can improve his chances.
10 Amazing Award has been in good form since notching his first win five runs ago. Last start, he closed in nicely for fourth.
1 Setanta drops back into Class 4, where he holds a solid record of three wins from 11 starts. He will have a sweet run from his inside draw.
5 Flying Wrote may be ready for the rise in distance after looking a bit flat-footed over 1,200m last start. A nice low draw should ensure a smooth trip up on the pace to boost his claims.
Race 6 (1,200m)
3 Loveisintheair is improving and this marks his fourth start following a fast-finishing third. He has trialled nicely and, if he can settle a touch closer, he will be very hard to hold out late.
2 Aurio has been the victim of wide barrier draws in recent runs yet still performed well. His third-placed finish from barrier 1 four starts ago at this course and distance reads well.
12 Telecom Power is on the verge of Class 5 but remains in Class 4 on a light weight. He had every chance from barrier 1 last start and, while beaten, there was nothing wrong with his second to Jolly Ruler.
8 Excellent Peers has not won in 903 days, but he placed twice from 10 starts this season - he is in the mix on an each-way basis.
Race 7 (1,650m)
4 Thesis had too much to do from behind last time. He has shown previously that he can settle closer, and if he can do that, he will be right in the mix.
6 Iconical backed up a promising trial with an all-the-way win at this course and distance for his breakthrough success. He has trialled well and looks capable of going on with it, though barrier 12 will require a lot more early luck to find the front.
1 Ivy League drops into Class 4 for the first time and has not been far away in recent efforts in Class 3, including his last-start fourth. He receives a strong jockey booking with Hugh Bowman in the saddle, which would boost his chances.
11 Jumbo Fortune ran a good fourth from barrier 11 last start and, while unreliable as a win prospect - as his record suggests - he is more than capable of filling a minor placing, especially with the help of barrier 1.
Race 8 (1,650m)
10 Lucky Touch checks plenty of boxes as Zac Purton jumps back and a move into barrier 3 is going to turn his luck around from a speed map perspective. This looks his best opportunity to win.
9 Casa Rochester broke through at his fifth start, following a couple of luckless runs since the downgrade. He returns to Class 3 but is on an upward trend and can acquit himself well in a competitive race.
7 Highland Rahy strung together two all-the-way wins in Class 4 before stepping back up to Class 3 last time, when he was beaten by a neck into second. He looks set for a soft lead again.
11 Quantum Patch ran a nose-second last start. He is back in good form and warrants respect.
Race 9 (1,200m)
10 King Miles looks to be building towards another win since moving to this track and distance. Two starts ago, he was badly held up when finishing eighth, before a narrow loss to Crimson Flash last time. With plenty of speed on paper, the race shape should suit his late swooping style.
7 Lucky Planet is thriving since joining Cody Mo three runs ago. After a promising third, he has since won back-to-back by a combined margin of nearly six lengths. The early pressure will be key but, if left alone up front, he will take some catching.
4 Chateauneuf steps away from barrier 1 which helps his chances big time. He showed a good return to form last time with a close-up third and that run places him in the firing line.
9 Fatal Blow rises to Class 3 after landing his second win at the top of Class 4. With good tempo expected, he can settle just behind the speed, and while barrier 11 forces their hand tactically, he should still be in the mix late.
Comments courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club