Mitch Marner NHL free agency sweepstakes: Ranking all 32 potential landing spots

New York Times

2 days ago

The calendar has flipped to June, which means we're into NHL free agency talk in a big way for the next four weeks.
And in a shallow year for UFAs, Mitch Marner is going to be the big fish that most of the league pursues on July 1. By my count, as many as 15 teams make sense at the moment for a Marner bid, and that may be a conservative number.
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Taking into consideration teams' roster needs, cap situations and likelihood of pursuing him, as well as Marner's potential desired landing spots, here's my look at all 32 teams and how they will likely approach one of the biggest names making it to free agency since John Tavares (seven years at $11 million a season) in 2018 and Artemi Panarin (seven years at $11.6 million) in 2019.
No contending team will have a bigger need for a star offensive player and as much cap space as the Hurricanes, who figure to be aggressive this July 1 given another disappointing exit. Marner turned down a trade to Carolina near the March 7 deadline, but with a no-movement clause and the fact that he was about to become a father, that made a lot of sense on the personal side. That situation hasn't dampened the Hurricanes' interest. But will Marner be interested if they are the highest bidder in free agency?
One of the few playoff teams in a desirable market that definitely needs help up front, has cap space and will be aggressive in free agency. New GM Ken Holland has signaled he intends to use his cap space to put his team in a better position to finally advance further in the postseason. Marner feels like a perfect fit on a team that has such a strong defensive approach, and he knows coach Jim Hiller well from their time in Toronto. The Kings won't be the front-runner, but they're certainly in the mix.
I hesitated to put Utah here, as Marner will most likely want to go to a contender and the Mammoth didn't even make the playoffs. (In fact, this group has qualified only once in the last 13 years, dating back to the Coyotes years.) But they're certainly well-positioned to take a big step given their youth movement and all their cap space. If charismatic new owner Ryan Smith can put on a good sell job, perhaps Marner decides to take a chance on an up-and-coming team rather than a sure thing? It certainly would be a quieter media environment out near the Wasatch Range.
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They'd have to find a way to shed salary, but when has that ever been a problem for Kelly McCrimmon and friends? The ultimate big-move team feels like they'll find a way to be in on this one, and their bid would have the right ingredients of something Marner would be interested in.
I've seen a lot of people connecting Marner to the Ducks, but they've been in the rebuilding phase for such a long time that I feel like this will be a tough sell for such a high-profile UFA. But they certainly have the need and the acres of cap space, so maybe they can put in a high bid and have a shot at winning him over.
It was certainly a lost season in Boston this year, but do they try and pull a Capitals and retool quickly? Between David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, they have a lot of strong pieces in place, so scorched earth doesn't seem like the way to go. It would be a bit of a heel turn for Marner, given they're such a big rival in the division, but I don't think we can rule it out entirely just on that basis. They certainly have the cap room after their big sell-off before the deadline.
There's frustration building in Chicago as the rebuild stretches on. They'll certainly be in the mix with a massive bid, and Connor Bedard gives them one foundational piece to play with. The Blackhawks are still years away from making the playoffs, so they don't have to worry about the cap hit initially, which could allow them to put a $15 million-plus offer on the table without breaking a sweat. If Marner wants the most money, it could be here. But I don't expect that'll be the leading consideration, which drops them into this tier.
After dealing away Mikko Rantanen, the Avs certainly have a big hole on RW. And playing with Nathan MacKinnon has to hold some appeal for Marner. Colorado's cap situation is complicated by having Gabriel Landeskog off LTIR, though they can make a Marner contract work with a few savvy moves. But are they willing to offer a big number after declining to give Rantanen $12 million — especially with Cale Makar up for a monster new contract in 2027?
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Columbus was one of the biggest feel-good stories of the season, pushing to within two points of making the playoffs despite a roster barely above the floor and after dealing with an unthinkable tragedy in the death of Johnny Gaudreau. The Blue Jackets have a cannon-load of cap space and an intriguing youth movement, so maybe they do big here? It's a market UFAs don't always flock to, but that could start to change as they have more success.
Steve Yzerman needs a big swing. The Red Wings' rebuild is now entering its eighth or ninth year, depending on where you mark the clock, and they could use another star or two to push them forward. They have the cap space to make this work and are still an iconic Original Six franchise, even after all the losing over the past decade. But the shine is off for free agents, and Marner would most likely look elsewhere for a better chance to win.
Another popular choice in the rumor mill, but the Panthers' situation is somewhat more complicated than it seems at first glance. If they let Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad walk — which feels unlikely — they'd have the cap room but will have key holes, especially on defense. And no one on this team makes more than captain Aleksander Barkov's $10 million. Would Marner take less than market value to play for the Leafs' rivals? That would certainly add more spice to next year's Atlantic Division playoffs.
Always a desirable market to go to, the Predators will have the cap room to make a bid. But after some high-profile misses in free agency last year and a brutal season on the ice, will they want to try again? And, more importantly, will Marner be willing to overlook their struggles and take a chance on a rebound?
Another rebuilding club with tons of cap space and some intriguing young prospects, led by Macklin Celebrini, that could be a UFA draw. The Sharks have historically been a market players want to be in, too, and Marner is close with local legends Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton. A long shot, perhaps, but a shot nonetheless.
All of Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau's children in one place 🥹😅 (via IG/patrickmarleau.12) pic.twitter.com/Xfm5TiOC8l
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) March 29, 2025
Likely a spot Marner would want to be, and coach Jon Cooper has spoken glowingly about him in the past. But the cap gymnastics to make this happen feel tough. They're $7 million short of being able to fit in a $13 million addition; would they be willing to jettison a core piece to add on the wing, where they're already fairly deep?
They're going to struggle to sign any marquee free agents with what's been going on there.
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Despite their surprising showing this past season and some promise in goal, it's hard to see them being a draw given all the competition. I suspect Marner ends up in the U.S. on this deal, too.
Obviously a desirable market, but they're loaded up front and very tight against the cap. Rantanen was their big bet on the wing.
Just getting Evan Bouchard under the cap is going to be a challenge. And they have to keep their eye on Connor McDavid's bank-breaking extension for 2026, too.
With a bunch of cap space opening up, the Wild will likely make a big UFA addition or two, but I suspect their targets to be more along the lines of Brock Nelson and Brock Boeser than Marner. They have a massive Kirill Kaprizov extension to be mindful of in 2026, too.
A big bid on Marner doesn't fit with their offseason game plan. And, again, I don't expect Marner to stay in Canada.
The Devils are going to be somewhat cap challenged after they sign RFA Luke Hughes. And they don't feel like a destination for Marner at this point, given the other options he'll have.
Similar to the Devils, but with a weaker team on the ice with less upside. New GM Mathieu Darche has his work cut out for him cleaning up some of the mess he's been left.
There are huge cap challenges here with RFAs K'Andre Miller and Will Cuylle, among others. They need to worry about being an offer-sheet target this summer. And find a way to shed salary. No pressure.
As juicy a storyline as it would be, I don't see Marner going to the Leafs' provincial rival.
Big-game hunting doesn't seem to be in the cards for the Flyers this offseason. Maybe in another year or two, as they do have interesting pieces coming.
A reunion with Kyle Dubas and Jason Spezza would headline this one, but playing with Sidney Crosby might be the bigger draw for Marner. The problem is the Penguins appear years away from contention and don't feel like a realistic draw for marquee UFAs at the moment.
Not a great fit given their on-ice struggles. They have the cap space, even after trying to make a big splash a year ago in free agency, but that might be their only plus point.
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Going big on Marner doesn't feel like a fit for either side here, for a variety of reasons, including the fact he'll likely have other markets higher on his wish list. But GM Doug Armstrong likes to get aggressive, and Marner is friendly with Robert Thomas. The Blues can also free up the requested cap space, if needed, with Torey Krug destined for LTIR.
It's certainly possible they could open enough cap space to try, especially if Elias Pettersson is on the move, but as Marner is looking to escape a high-pressure media environment, I wouldn't recommend this one. No offense to my home province.
Their cap situation is a bit challenging here without significant surgery, so I'd be surprised to see this one line up. But they've been aggressive before, so maybe they throw their hat in the ring given Alex Ovechkin's big salary might be off the books in a year.
Unfortunately for the Jets, their location is likely to work against them in this case.
It certainly seems like Marner is ready to move on, based on what he's said publicly and what I've heard from behind the scenes. The only question is if the offers he wants don't materialize and if he decides to circle back with the Leafs after July 1. You look at the list above, and it's clear not many contenders are likely to be able to offer $13 million. Does that matter, in the end? Will he go to a Chicago or San Jose if they're the only ones that hit that mark? Or re-engage Toronto?
If you pressed me, I'd put this at a 2 percent chance of happening.