Labour's defence spend increase still won't impress Trump

Telegraph

25-02-2025

Boris Johnson says the UK defence budget should 'get to 3 per cent [of GDP] by 2030. 2.5 per cent is not enough.' Hang on a minute. In 2022, when he was prime minister, he said 2.5 per cent was enough and he pledged an increase to that amount. And then two years later, with a flourish, Rishi Sunak unveiled exactly the same promise. So what became of Johnson's earlier undertaking? Is it possible it was only words rather than the action he now demands?
At the time of Johnson's alleged increase, Labour's shadow defence secretary, John Healey, attacked his proposal, claiming the increase was required immediately, not in eight years' time. He was absolutely right, the more dangerous world that Johnson said justified the increase had already engulfed us, not least with Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
But, when appointed defence secretary, Healey's plans were to get to 2.5 per cent at some undetermined time in the future. Only now, under growing pressure from President Trump, Labour has been forced to bite the bullet and up the budget to 2.5 per cent; still not 'immediately', but by 2027.
Even this rise, however, will barely cover the defence equipment black hole between existing commitments and budgetary allocation and will not enable significant additional capabilities.
Those increased capabilities are sorely needed. In the second half of last year we heard two shocking statements from the upper echelons of British defence. In October Healey admitted the armed forces are 'not ready to fight'. And not long before that the Chief of the General Staff, Sir Roland Walker, said the Army must be ready to 'fight a war in three years'. The problem with war is that it often comes along when you least expect it and maybe we won't have those three years. The armed forces should of course be ready to fight and ready to fight immediately.
When it comes to defence our political leaders seem to be like rabbits in the headlights. Even as the war in Ukraine reminded the world how vital conventional defences continue to be, plans to cut our already minuscule Army by over 10,000 men continued apace.
Despite Sir Keir Starmer's big talk of Britain taking the lead in a European peacekeeping force if President Trump secures a cessation in Ukraine, we are unlikely to be able to muster even a force of 5-10,000 fighting men to form its backbone.
And at just the moment our two aircraft carriers could have been used to best effect defending international shipping in the Red Sea, we have not so far been able to deploy even one of them, apparently due to crew shortages in the Royal Navy's support vessels. That is after years of attacks on merchant and naval ships by Houthi terrorists in Yemen. Meanwhile our solitary Type 45 destroyer on duty down there lacked the weaponry to attack enemy positions on the shore.
Like the other services the RAF has been severely hollowed out, with too few planes and aircrew to meet the tasks currently demanded of them including operations in the Black Sea, the Red Sea and against jihadists in Syria and Iraq. Lack of spare parts and adequate servicing schedules mean that even the available aircraft are too often grounded.
With a growing threat from long range missiles and drones, both against deployed forces and the homeland, in common with all other European nations, we have highly inadequate air defences. Consequently we are over-dependent on US systems, which are also in short supply.
Although Johnson's track record on defence is far from exemplary, he's right that Starmer's 2.5 per cent is not enough; not by a long chalk. Following his statement to Parliament, he might now be able to eagerly enter the White House this week proclaiming his planned rise. But I doubt Trump's experts in the Pentagon will be much impressed when they go through the books.