Not much for civilian safety in India's evolving military doctrine

Mint

6 days ago

India's evolving military doctrine has a significant downside. If any act of terrorism is now considered an act of war, it naturally increases the likelihood of retaliatory and pre-emptive actions from across the border.
What follows is a natural corollary. Does India have enough bomb shelters, bunkers, even an underground anti-nuclear refuge, if the going gets worse than it did this month during the Indo-Pakistan 4-day war?
With warfare getting increasingly technical and drone-prone, it is not just the international borders, which are unsafe. As evidenced recently, missiles were designed and used to target defence establishments in urban areas. Their range and capabilities have expanded significantly in recent years, allowing them to strike targets deep within enemy territory.
Under the circumstances, just how safe are Indian civilians, the soft targets in the larger game?
Major General Atul Kaushik (Retd) said in Shimla recently that there is an urgent need to build more bunkers for the people living in border areas.
'People living in border towns and villages often bear the brunt of conflict, particularly in regions like Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and along the Line of Control (LOC),'' the officer said in a statement. He said that towns like Uri, Tangdhar and Poonch were severely affected in the recent cross-border shelling, forcing many civilians to migrate to the hinterland.'
On May 6-7, Pakistani shelling in J&K's Poonch and Tangdhar killed 15 and injured 43 after India launched 'Operation Sindoor' in response to the Pahalgam attack, defence officials said. According to the final count, 18 civilians lost their lives in Pakistani shelling and firing during the four-day confrontation.
The figures may well be higher. It would also be instructive to remember that firing across the LoC is not a one-off. It could take place anytime, without warning.
The civilian casualties highlight a crucial issue - the lack of sufficient bunkers and safe havens for the local population. In cases of cross-border casualties, a compensation scheme of providing a fixed sum of ₹ five lakh to the next of kin has been fixed. Add to it the destruction of property and livestock during these conflicts, which is rarely compensated adequately, leaving families in crisis.
According to a government official, the Indian government is actively promoting the construction of bunkers and other shelters in border areas, particularly Jammu and Kashmir, to protect civilian populations from potential threats. This is driven by the need to prevent mass displacement during periods of conflict and to provide immediate safety during shelling or other emergencies.
Constructed extensively during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's second term, these bunkers exist mainly along the LoC and International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir. Designed to protect civilians from mortar fire and infiltration, they reflect a major governmental push to secure border communities.
According to media reports, by 2021 nearly 8,000 underground shelters were built across Jammu province. Initially, the Centre approved 14,460 bunkers across five districts — Jammu, Kathua, Samba, Poonch, and Rajouri — and later sanctioned 4,000 more, expanding protection for vulnerable villages.
How do these figures compare with the West, where threat perceptions are considerably lower and the populated areas relatively smaller? Countries, like Sweden and Finland, have a significant number of bomb shelters, reflecting their preparedness for potential conflicts. Sweden, for example, is reported to have 64,000 shelter locations with space for up to seven million people. Finland's extensive civil defense system – under the threat of Russian guns along its 1,340 km border - includes over 50,000 shelters with the capacity to house a large portion of its population.
The reference Nuclear War Survival Skills declared that, as of 1986, "Switzerland has the best civil defence system, one that already includes blast shelters for over 85 per cent of all its citizens." In 2006, there were about 300,000 shelters built in private residences, institutions and hospitals, as well as 5,100 public places.
In comparison, India's civil defence structure, as evidenced recently, belonged to the era of Second World War movies. The central government's decision to conduct exercises across 244 designated civil defence districts to familiarize citizens with war time and emergency protocols on May 7, including sirens and mock drills, could hardly be considered effective in an era of precision, targeted bombing from distances 150 km away.
The existence of designated bomb shelters or public safe zones in Indian cities against aerial attacks, are unheard of. Officials say that while some underground metro stations and basements of buildings are being identified as potential safe havens, they were not originally constructed for this purpose.
Neither is construction an easy option, given the population density of Indian cities. Sunita Singh, an Accredited Social Health Activist (ASHA), a voluntary community health worker, says there is barely enough space to stand in her work place, northeast Delhi's Gokulpuri colony, which makes building a bunker or shelter ``an imaginary idea.'
According to the 2011 Census, northeast Delhi is the most densely populated area in the national capital with 37,346 people per sq. km. Included in this district are colonies like Bhajanpura, Gokulpuri, Seelampur, and Shahdara that are bulging at the seams.
People living in border towns and villages often bear the brunt of conflict, particularly in regions like Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and along the Line of Control (LOC).
Public details of nuclear bunkers or anti-bomb shelters are sparse but VIPs in the government do have protection, which remains a closely guarded secret.
The common public, for the time being, must defend themselves, if they can.