NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington odds, expert picks: Kyle Larson favored but Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin could factor

New York Times

05-04-2025

The NASCAR Cup Series is in South Carolina this weekend for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. And, as always in motorsports, there's plenty of drama to go around (the 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval track).
This year's event marks the 125th Cup Series race hosted by Darlington Raceway, the 'Lady in Black.' Kyle Larson is the favorite to win it, but our experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, are tired of picking the favorite and are making the case for Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin this week, plus a couple of long shots who may have an advantage.
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As always, we're diving into a Q&A with Jeff and Jordan to sort out the drama of the week: What happened at that Xfinity Series race, how AI might be changing the game and more.
Take it away, guys!
Let's start with the Xfinity Series because the fallout from last week's race continues. NASCAR penalized driver Sammy Smith for his actions in that race, as you outlined. A lot of fans are saying the penalty is not nearly sufficient and that Smith should be suspended by NASCAR or that Dale Earnhardt Jr. should park him (which Earnhardt says is 'out of the question'). Kevin Harvick says NASCAR needs to act. In your opinion, how does this penalty stack up compared to similar infractions in the past? Is Xfinity headed toward a reckoning?
Jeff: NASCAR will meet with the entire Xfinity Series field prior to Saturday's race at Darlington Raceway after that embarrassment of a Martinsville event — and that might have been the case even before Smith's over-the-line, intentional wreck of the leader on the last lap. The problem can be somewhat traced to an issue we raised recently when we put our betting expert (and author of these questions), Hannah Vanbiber, on a path to a potential Cup Series ride. Because it's so easy to buy your way into the top levels of NASCAR without an extensive resume or experience first, some of these kids who come from wealthy backgrounds (with their families paying for them to race) have little regard for tearing up race cars or racing with respect. All they care about is winning and getting to the front, and they're willing to sacrifice some racing ethics to do it. Clean passing takes talent, but when your dad doesn't care if you simply knocked another driver out of the way because he's paying $10 million for you to race — and NASCAR doesn't penalize it harshly enough — that type of dirty driving is going to continue. That's why officials need to try to step in to curb this behavior in the lower series before it's too late — although it might already be.
Jordan: To put the proverbial genie back in the bottle, NASCAR is likely going to have to make a dramatic change in how it officiates overly aggressive driving. Yes, this does go against the ethos of what stock car racing is supposed to be, especially on a short track, but the only way you're going to get drivers to modify their behavior is by making it clear that such actions will be met with swift, heavy punishment. And while there will certainly be handwringing should a driver(s) be suspended for something that may be considered on the line, this is going to have to be the new reality for some time until a course correction takes hold.
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So, what's going on with Ross Chastain and Joey Logano? Will this fizzle out, or have we not heard the last of their beef? What other conflicts are bubbling, and are they the kind to push the racing forward or bog things down?
Jeff: When meeting with reporters on Wednesday, Chastain indicated he was mystified and offended by Logano's post-race comments expressing frustration with the Trackhouse Racing driver. Chastain has been an easy target in the past because he typically does not get the benefit of the doubt, but Logano also doesn't just fire off random remarks if he doesn't think they're true. So it'll be interesting to hear from Logano this week about all of it. If the three-time champion indeed thinks Chastain has crossed him multiple times, this certainly wouldn't be over in terms of how hard they race each other on the track. In terms of other potential conflicts, I don't see anything popping up this week in terms of a payback scenario; Darlington isn't a great place to try something like that.
Jordan: It wasn't that long ago that Logano was the driver veterans would point at and accuse of being overly aggressive, something Logano would shrug off and effectively dismiss by saying his job was to go win races, not make friends. And now he's the veteran offering such criticism. This is the NASCAR Circle of Life. Now, where things go from here between these two is something to closely watch.
Logano is not reluctant to put a bumper to a competitor, especially if he feels like he's been taken advantage of in some manner. A prime example is the 2022 Darlington spring race, where Logano drove William Byron into the wall in the closing laps as they battled for the win because he felt Byron had taken liberties with him. Expect Logano to race Chastain similarly on Sunday if they find themselves vying for the lead late.
You've been asking drivers in your '12 Questions' series if they've started using AI in their job or daily life. I'm curious how AI is impacting the sport at large. What conversations are happening? How have teams harnessed AI already, and what moon-shot ideas, if any, do they have? (Maybe helping with all these lawsuits….)
Jeff: I don't think the teams are going to advertise exactly what they're doing with it, but it sure would make sense if they were using AI tools to help them figure out pit strategy — fuel-savings, the ideal time to make a green-flag pit stop, whether to take two tires or four. Or think about how helpful it could be with maximizing the ideal balance between car setup and a driver's specific style. Just like in any other business, there are seemingly endless possibilities for AI to help teams find a competitive edge, but it also comes down to the resources and brainpower of those inputting the prompts for AI to solve.
Jordan: AI has had a large impact on what pit strategy teams are employing during the course of the race, with some teams relying on it significantly as a way to gain an advantage. And in some instances, it has made a considerable difference. One thing to note, though, is that there are some within the garage who still prefer the human element to calling a race due to factors that AI can't always take into account.
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What have you heard about the Amazon Prime documentary on Kyle Larson's attempt at 'The Double'? And how is Larson preparing this year? Anything different in his approach since last year?
Jeff: They started filming this last year, but then it was all for naught since Larson never actually ran the Double (he stayed to run the Indy 500 and tried to make it back for the end of the Coke 600, but it got rain-shortened).
This time around, Larson is committed to NASCAR — thanks in part to a rule change that basically ruins his season if he doesn't show up for a NASCAR race — and has to cross his fingers it won't rain again at Indy. Other than that, he hasn't done much preparation yet. He'll visit the Brickyard later this month for a test session to get reacclimated before the 'Month of May' kicks off with practice and qualifying.
Jordan: Camera crews have been omnipresent around Larson and Hendrick Motorsports for some time, so there should be no shortage of footage for producers to sort through. It will be interesting to see what material, if any, is used from last May when Larson and the team had to make the difficult choice whether to stay in Indianapolis and attempt the 500 or pull the plug so Larson could get to Charlotte on time. Pulling back the curtain on this moment would make for very compelling television.
Now to Darlington! Who has the advantage at this track? Who do you think will win?
Jeff: I'm tired of picking the favorite every week (even though we were right with Kyle Larson at Homestead), so how about Chase Briscoe? He won the Southern 500 last year in a Stewart-Haas Racing car to make the playoffs, and now he returns with a superior team in Joe Gibbs Racing. Briscoe also finished fifth in the Darlington spring race last season and famously beat Kyle Busch in a Darlington Xfinity race the day after Briscoe's wife had a miscarriage. Briscoe has the seventh-best odds this week, so he's not a long shot, but he could win this race.
Jordan: Darlington is one of those tracks where it often feels like only a select group of drivers have a bona fide chance to win. This means picking amongst the likes of Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and a handful of others. From this perspective, Hamlin is the best choice as he's always fast here, knows how to best save his tires and comes in with a lot of confidence following last week's statement win.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Never count out Erik Jones at Darlington. Ever. Two of Jones' three career Cup Series wins have come at Darlington, the second in a major shock for the team then known as Petty GMS (which later became Legacy Motor Club). The caveat here is that the 2022 Southern 500 victory is Jones's only single-digit finish at Darlington in his last eight starts there, but this is a guy who immediately clicked with the place as a young driver, reeling off six straight finishes of eighth or better to open his Cup career. He's a distant +8000 in the odds this week, but he was +7000 when he won in 2022.
Jordan: Considering Chris Buescher nearly won this race last year before getting pushed into the wall in the closing laps, relegating him to a 30th-place finish, and has two other top-six finishes over the past four races, it is eyebrow-raising that he has such high odds (+2500). He is one of the more underrated drivers in the garage, and if RFK Racing brings a fast car on Sunday, Buescher will be in contention.
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(Photo of Denny Hamlin: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)