FEMA has muddied the water on Haywood tourism recovery

Yahoo

2 days ago

May 28—How is Haywood's vital tourism economy faring in the wake of Helene? It's a tricky question to answer, with only one full season — and winter at that — behind us.
It's made all the more difficult by the fact that a key metric to measure tourism was skewed in a significant way by outside forces.
Overnight stays in Haywood County were down more than 40% in October on the heels of Helene, compared to October the previous year. Come November, overnight stays had nearly fully rebounded to last year's levels.
And by December and January? Overnight stays were up compared to the previous year.
But does that mean tourism was up? While overnight stays are typically the barometer for tourism performance, an unusual dynamic was at play. Thousands of hotel room nights were being filled by flood victims.
Displaced Helene victims finding refuge in Haywood hotels offset what would have otherwise been a significant drop in overnight stays over last year — and in turn spared the county from a more sizable drop in tourism revenue from room tax collections.
Following Helene, overnight stays in vacation rentals — like Airbnb's and rental cabins — saw a sharp decline. But overnight stays in hotels and motels saw a big increase.
Only hotels and motels were eligible for the FEMA program to house displaced flood victims. So the increase in that sector, while other lodging sectors declined, coincides with the FEMA hotel housing program.
However, it didn't last. By March, the FEMA hotel housing program benefits began wind down — and the true picture of a tourism decline became apparent.
Diving into the numbers
The 4% room tax collected on overnight stays is down $200,000 — or 10% — between July 2024 and March 2025 compared to the same period a year prior.
Room tax collections are how the county's Tourism Development Authority, the TDA, keeps tabs on how many travelers are visiting Haywood and when.
"We were predicting that we would be down at least through February or March, so the fact that December flipped to being modestly up is fantastic," said Corrina Ruffieux, executive director of the Haywood County TDA, said earlier in the year.
However, it didn't quire come to pass that way, and at first Ruffieux was puzzled why tourism had not only rebounded but increased in the wake of Helene.
—October room tax collections were down by 43% from the previous year following the Sept. 27 flooding and landslides that accompanied Helene.
—November room tax collections were only down by about 4% from the previous year, a remarkable figure, given the circumstances.
—December numbers actually rose, up nearly 3% over the previous year.
—January's room tax collections were even more impressive, up around 8% from last year.
However, it appears that Ruffieux's prediction inevitably came true. Room tax collection for February dropped by 6% over last year. March continued that slide, dropping 12% from last year.
FEMA confuses matters
After Hurricane Helene, participants in FEMA's Transitional Shelter Assistance program utilized hotel and motel rooms in Haywood for short-term housing. Displaced flood victims found available rooms and FEMA paid the hotels and motels directly for the cost of the stay.
And by extension, it paid into Haywood's room tax, undoubtedly skewing the numbers. As of the end of April, Haywood had no TSA participants booking rooms.
While it was obvious Haywood room tax collections had a bump that paralleled the FEMA hotel program, just how much it artificially inflated tourism numbers is difficult to parse out.
The data doesn't have as much fidelity as anyone would like. Neither FEMA nor the TDA has access to information about exactly what percentage of room stays booked in Haywood County over the last six months were from TSA participants and which were from regular visitors.
However, the TDA does keep room tax stats for four lodging sectors: bed and breakfasts and specialty inns, golf resorts, hotels and motels, and vacation rentals.
Normally, vacation rentals make up the largest share of room tax collections, followed by hotels and motels.
Hotel and motel stays jumped by 81% in November and 73% in December.
And in January — the height of FEMA hotel stays and the month posting the biggest room tax increase — hotel and motel stays were up 113%.
Meanwhile, vacation rentals over the same period were down: by 32% in November, 18% in December and January, 25% in February, and 24% in February.
Since vacation rentals are usually the lion's share of room tax collections, the loss in that sector were enough to account for the overall room tax dip in February of 6% and in March of 12% — albeit not as bad as it would have been without the FEMA hotel stays.
But Ruffieux isn't sounding the alarm bells just yet. She pointed to successful winter events like Ice Fest — which sold 1,000 more tickets than it did last year — and a banner year at Cataloochee Ski Area, which had its second best season of all time, according to Sarah Worrell, director of marketing and public relations for the ski mountain.
And, Ruffieux pointed out, while the income-generating short term vacation rentals were indeed down, occupancies in golf resorts and bed-and-breakfasts were up over last year in November, December January, February, and March — sometimes significantly.
And one of Haywood's biggest warm-weather activities — Cataloochee Valley — is back open just in time for summer.
Whether or not that will affect the ongoing trend remains to be seen.