Crafting the right Pahalgam response
The heinous attack on civilians in Pahalgam's
Baisaran Valley
in J&K's Anantnag district on Tuesday comes at a time that makes its intent clear: to elicit a hyperventilated 'overkill' response from New Delhi. Such a trap must be avoided. Instead, an effective, calculated response needs to be fashioned. A trifecta points to both the source and cause of the massacre: closer India-US ties, with
J D Vance
's India visit providing the right optics; Rawalpindi's related pirouette towards Beijing as a 'sympathetic' state; and the anti-India, Islamicist rhetoric and action growing by the day on India's eastern flank in post-Hasina Bangladesh. The
Pahalgam attack
is to set a fuse in this powder keg.
An apposite response needs steady heads. India has little non-military leverage over Pakistan that has little left to lose - even as the
Indus Water Treaty
has been suspended - and much to gain from India taking its eye off its own economic ball. What is required is actionable deterrence, alongside pressure points to be applied through 'allied' countries like Saudi Arabia and the US, even with the latter's reduced 'dependency' on the Pakistani army. A call from Lok Kalyan Marg to Zhongnanhai may not be as out of place as it sounds.
The
2019 Balakot airstrike
on alleged terrorist training camps on Pakistani territory could serve as a model. What must be avoided at all costs is a 'shutters-down' response in the Valley - something the terrorist sponsors armed with their plausible deniability are very likely to be betting on. J&K has come too further down the path of normalcy to be entrapped back again in a cyclical perma-condition of 'attack-defend'. Defining 'proportionate' in 'proportionate response' will be crucial for India. As will be upping our intel capabilities.
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