World Cup 2026: Our experts' hopes, fears and predictions with a year to go

New York Times

a day ago

There are just 365 days until the start of the 2026 World Cup.
The 23rd contest for football's biggest prize already felt unique, with 104 games and a record 48 teams spread across three host nations, the United States, Canada and Mexico, but it also feels like a tournament with a dizzying number of subplots.
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Will North America embrace the sport's greatest event? Can giants of the game, such as Brazil and Italy, reverse their declining fortunes? Can new superstars emerge, or will the legacies of old ones be underlined? And, most significantly, who will win it?
We assembled an expert panel to debate the big questions.
Adam Crafton: It will be incredible, because knockout football at the highest level always is. The expanded format should guarantee a catalogue of star names — the enduring Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, a new generation, including Yamine Lamal and Desire Doue, and, potentially, belated first-timers such as Erling Haaland.
Oliver Kay: I'll be honest, I had barely thought about it until about a week ago. Football these days is so all-consuming and non-stop that there's little space for anticipation. But when I stop to think about it — and I look beyond my gripes with the expanded format and playing it across a continent — it excites me.
Jack Lang: I'm conflicted. It's a World Cup, so there will be glory, grace and giddiness. The wide geographical canvas of the U.S., Canada and Mexico also appeals after the one-note nature of Qatar 2022. Still, the context of the tournament — political turmoil in the United States, the greed and grandstanding of FIFA president Gianni Infantino — is impossible to ignore.
Melanie Anzidei: The tournament will be a commercial success. There will be record attendance figures and television viewers, and lots of money will be made. But will the matches be accessible? Or will most of them be enjoyed only by those fans who can afford dynamic ticket pricing? The latter feels contradictory to the beautiful game.
Paul Tenorio: The World Cup always delivers. Always. Big tournaments in the U.S. typically deliver, too. The 1994 World Cup remains the best-attended in history. The Copa America tournaments staged here have been successful. This expanded World Cup will be fantastic.
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Joshua Kloke: It's difficult not to feel positive here in Canada. The team has the most talented roster in its history and, with a new coach, Canada is also playing its best football, well, ever. Yes, ballooning costs have become a massive issue that will dog Canada's two host cities, Vancouver and Toronto. Yet if Canada Soccer does enough to promote its product, many in those cities could also be left with feelings of positivity as well.
Felipe Cardenas: Very positive. The United States isn't a perfect host country, as evidenced during the 2024 Copa America there, but the World Cup will be an absolute success. It simply doesn't get any bigger than what's coming next summer.
Crafton: I worry that the heat, combined with players' domestic workloads, could create disappointing performances. The U.S. team are also a concern; they look pretty lost. Off the field, there is no shortage of issues: will the political climate in America deter travelling fans from other countries? Will all the associated costs — flights, hotels, parking, concessions — be extortionate?
Kay: It might end up being chaotic because of the number of games (40 more than before), all the travelling across three host nations, the heat and the enormous number of fans desperate to be at the biggest matches. If Qatar 2022 was a sterile experience off the pitch — and it was — 2026 feels like it could be too intense.
Lang: That FIFA has messed up a winning formula. The old format was perfect in its simplicity. Now we have third-placed teams going through, some group winners arbitrarily getting easier second-round matches, and just massive bloat. There are 72 group matches! I'm sorry, that is too many.
Anzidei: Infantino says this will be 'the most inclusive tournament ever'. But, as I write this, Los Angeles is entering another day of civil unrest and military intervention over President Donald Trump's immigration raids in the city. Supporters' groups in Los Angeles and Nashville staged their own protests separately in recent weeks. How are visitors from around the world expected to feel safe in America when immigrant families who live here don't?
Tenorio: Most of my concerns center on off-the-field issues. Rhetoric around immigration and hostility toward Latino and Hispanic people in this country are reaching dangerous levels. I don't imagine time is going to solve this problem, at least not by next summer.
Kloke: The political climate in the U.S. could threaten how welcome fans from around the world actually feel. But my more present concern is: will the best players in the world simply be too fatigued when it matters in the world's biggest tournament?
Cardenas: The number of games. If more teams are involved that are not prepared for an elite competition, and if the favorites slow down because of fatigue, we may all be bored next summer.
Crafton: I have lived in New York City for just over a year and have lost count of the number of people who don't know that MetLife Stadium, just a few miles away in New Jersey, will host the 2026 World Cup final. I can't really imagine another place in the world where this would be the case. But that is America: the news cycle moves fast and people become suddenly interested and infatuated with things when they move directly onto their horizon.
Anzidei: Absolutely. I'm based in East Rutherford (the town in New Jersey where the stadium is), and ever since FIFA chose MetLife for the final, the tournament is what crosses my mind every time I drive past it. My only concern is whether the Club World Cup will dilute that excitement. A mediocre football summer in 2025 could cast doubts on next year.
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Tenorio: I don't think we're there yet in the U.S., and I'm not surprised. At some point next spring, the country's larger population will catch on that the World Cup is coming and just how massive it is. At that point, you'll see a swell of energy about the tournament.
Kloke: Canada feels excited. There is the same feeling of eagerness you would expect from a teenager during their first time sitting at the adults' table. The country has a burgeoning domestic league and will want to show off how its soccer infrastructure is rapidly growing.
Cardenas: In Mexico, there's enormous pride in hosting a third World Cup. The news that the world is fed about Mexico is often focused on the country's problems with crime. Mexico fans, and more importantly, host city officials, are looking forward to showing their better side.
Kay: Purely from an English perspective, it's barely even on the radar — and scraping a 1-0 win against Andorra on Saturday did nothing to whet the appetite. My Welsh friends are starting to get excited, though.
Lang: There is some concern in South America about the prospect of going to the United States, given the political climate. Clarity will be needed in the next 12 months if fans are to feel comfortable travelling en masse like they usually do.
Crafton: Do the U.S. qualify as a big team? Their rut needs fixing, but barely any of their established players are playing in this summer's Gold Cup. Elsewhere, despite their recent good tournament record, I'm struggling to remember the last time I watched England play really well.
Kay: As much as England stank the place out on Saturday, I look at Italy's 3-0 defeat against Norway the day before and wonder whether they might somehow contrive to miss out on a third successive World Cup. Even if the expansion to 48 teams gives them more margin for error, they don't look in great shape to qualify.
Lang: Probably Brazil. They have finally managed to reel in Carlo Ancelotti as their new manager, but he does not have much time to address their many issues. Brazilians are usually bullish when the World Cup rolls around, but this time, there is an overriding sense of pessimism.
Anzidei: The obvious answer is the USMNT. It's a home tournament for a 'golden generation', led by a billionaire-backed manager in Mauricio Pochettino, who is still figuring out the roster. So much pressure and uncertainty, such little time.
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Tenorio: The Americans. Things are about as negative around this group as they've been since the failure to qualify for World Cup 2018. After a steady drumbeat of positivity and hope around a young squad with huge potential, there's been a real drop-off in results and optimism.
Kloke: Germany. Maybe their talent wins out and Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala pave the way for the next generation to re-establish them as great. But recent results suggest they're still a work in progress.
Cardenas: Brazil. The fear that most countries have felt before facing the five-time World Cup champions has dissipated. Can Ancelotti restore the team's ego? Assuming they do qualify, the Brazilians going out early next summer would be a disaster on so many levels.
Crafton: Norway beating Italy so handsomely in qualifying is intriguing and three wins out of three feels like an overdue arrival for a team featuring Haaland and Martin Odegaard. In South America, Ecuador are interesting. After 15 qualifiers (of 18), they had only conceded five goals and were second in the table.
Kay: The thing about a 48-team World Cup is that you could feasibly get to the quarter-finals without beating anyone even half-decent. So much will depend on the draw. I'll say Paraguay, but it could be almost anyone.
Lang: I'll stay in South America and say Ecuador, too. They have been steadily climbing the world rankings in recent years and have been incredibly tough to beat in qualifying. They might lack star power in attack, but are defensively solid and could surprise a few people.
Anzidei: Of the few teams already qualified? Canada. They had an impressive run during the Copa America last year, and they represent a rival to the United States. The stories write themselves. In that same vein, Venezuela, if they qualify, would also be a candidate.
Tenorio: I'll go with Mexico. There has been so much drama around that team for so long that it's hard to put a positive spin on them, but they are going to have home-field advantage in their three group games. Of the three co-hosts, Mexico have the best chance to make a run.
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Kloke: You're expecting me to say Canada, right? Not yet, eh. I watched a lot of Japan at Qatar 2022 and wondered how close a team that beat Germany and Spain is to making the quarter-finals for the first time. They're a resilient bunch and should be able to deal with the heat of next year's tournament.
Cardenas: After watching Portugal win the UEFA Nations League at the weekend with a 40-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo watching from the bench, I wondered if that was a picture we would see next summer. Maybe they can mirror Argentina's run in 2022, although Ronaldo won't have the same impact that Lionel Messi had for Argentina in Qatar.
Crafton: If they're here, probably Ronaldo and Messi. But in terms of the players I'd love to see live, Morocco's Achraf Hakimi and Portugal's Nuno Mendes are irrepressible, and maybe Brazil's Vinicius Junior can get that Ballon d'Or he craves.
Kay: It could be Lamine Yamal of Spain — but he will still only be 18 (turning 19 in the final week of the tournament) and it's so hard to assume that a player, particularly at that age, will perform under that kind of spotlight. Could it be France forward Kylian Mbappe's tournament? It might be.
Lang: It is hard to look past Yamal. He was brilliant at the European Championship last year but there was a lingering sense that the wider world was still catching up with him. That is no longer the case after his gala season for Barcelona. He plays without fear and can make this next World Cup his own.
Anzidei: Messi, if he plays. It will be hailed as his swansong, and he's now considered a local star thanks to his move to Inter Miami. Or Christian Pulisic, with the assumption he leads the U.S. to a deep run. (That could be thanks to taking this summer off, maybe?)
Tenorio: Yamal. He's just too good, Spain is a contender and Yamal's every touch is going to be under the microscope. He's a recognizable face for many soccer fans already in the U.S. and the World Cup is only going to amplify that.
Kloke: It would be easy to say Messi and Ronaldo in what should be the final World Cup for both (surely?). But it's hard to bet against Yamal. His combination of charm, age and otherworldly skill makes him the right fit to explode in the consumer-mad co-host United States.
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Cardenas: Last summer, England's Jude Bellingham propelled himself as a global superstar, scoring that 95th-minute bicycle kick to equalize against Slovakia in the round of 16. All that being said, I don't think there is any doubt that Yamal will become the tournament's darling. He is simply exceptional.
Crafton: The home of the Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium, will host nine matches, including a semi-final, and is pretty spellbinding. The SoFi in Los Angeles is probably the most impressive stadium in the U.S. — and the most-expensively-constructed — but in both cases their involvement ends after the quarter-finals.
Kay: The Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, which has staged some of the most memorable moments in World Cup history (the 'Game of the century' between Italy and West Germany in 1970 and Diego Maradona's 'Goal of the century' against England in 1986). It's a shame it will only host five games this time.
Lang: The one that appeals most to me is the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. There aren't many major stadiums with literal mountains towering over one end, after all.
Anzidei: MetLife Stadium. Everyone always remembers where the World Cup final was.
Tenorio: No Rose Bowl sunset views at this World Cup. That's a shame. From an American perspective, Seattle's Lumen Field will probably have the most memorable atmosphere. But the most iconic venue? It has to be the Azteca.
Kloke: Could the pomp and flash of many of the American venues end up becoming too much? No surprise from the Canadian, here, but I'm also going to pick Estadio BBVA, the stadium that could be the antidote to the sterile newness of, say, SoFi.
Cardenas: The Azteca will be newly renovated when Mexico hosts the tournament's inaugural match. The world will be taken back to 1970 and 1986, when Pele and Maradona lifted World Cup trophies in that same stadium. It's just a shame there are no games there beyond the round of 16.
Crafton: I really hope the dynamic pricing of various industries — and FIFA's mega projections, promising $13billion (£9.6bn) in revenue for this cycle — don't make this tournament completely unaffordable for the vast majority of people.
Kay: You know how the 1994 World Cup was huge for football in the U.S.? The growth in the past decades has been enormous, but I feel like there's still another level it could reach in America. Maybe it would take their team reaching the later stages, so that it really captivates the nation.
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Lang: That the football manages to eclipse all the nonsense once again. Although there is conflict here, too, because Infantino will just fold a successful tournament into his 'brand', claiming further legitimacy from it.
Anzidei: That soccer becomes a permanent fixture in the American sports landscape, and that the tournament inspires the next generation of U.S. soccer stars, like in 1994 and (the Women's World Cup in) 1999.
Tenorio: I hope a smaller country that gets in through the expanded format makes a run. It's what we love so much about the March Madness NCAA basketball tournaments, right?
Kloke: I don't care if this makes me sound like a homer or a hoser: I hope Canada goes on a run. Soccer is still growing in this country and the sport's community need bona fide results for the public to take it seriously.
Cardenas: That the tournament is competitive for as long as possible. If newcomers, such as Uzbekistan or Jordan, are embarrassed, or if the contenders are resting their stars in the group stage, the expanded format will be a flop. Plus, the host countries need to make memorable runs.
Crafton: Ancelotti to do it with Brazil — but a lot of improvement is required. Failing that, England, on penalties.
Kay: There are three standout contenders (Spain, Argentina, France) and perhaps another group beyond that (including Brazil, Germany, Portugal and others — England?) who could challenge. I'll say Spain, but it feels very open.
Lang: England or Argentina.
Anzidei: Don't make me say the quiet thing out loud, please! (But will we see a third team achieve back-to-back wins?)
Tenorio: Argentina will threaten but Spain looks so incredibly talented. They're on the upswing and it looks like they have the sport's next generational star.
Kloke: The last time the World Cup expanded in 1998, there was a first-time winner, France. I'm taking another country to win their first World Cup in 2026: the Netherlands.
Cardenas: If you haven't been watching Argentina since they won their third World Cup in 2022, you may not know that they've improved. Messi remains a part of the team, but they're better, more direct and faster without him on the pitch.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)