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The Dutton delusion: Many election myths were believed, then busted

The Dutton delusion: Many election myths were believed, then busted

The Age11-05-2025

One of the great dangers in politics – for both practising politicians and those, like me, who write about them – is in accepting the stories that everybody else is telling.
Last week, Liberal leadership hopeful Angus Taylor told The Australian Financial Review that his party needed to have 'a more collaborative and collegiate environment, where we can have more robust debate despite differences of view'.
It's a good point. It is clear that the environment of the past three years did the Coalition no favours: changing it is crucial. And so it was odd to hear Taylor say, as well, 'Dutts actually did do an extraordinary job holding the party room together'.
Perhaps this was simply the praise that sprang most easily to mind after the Coalition's devastating defeat. Still, it was a little confusing. Was this unity, as Taylor's other comments seemed to suggest, a cause of defeat or a landmark achievement?
Still, you can understand why it sprang easily to mind. For the past three years, Coalition unity has been repeatedly mentioned as an unequivocally good thing: a virtue, it seemed, in its own right. And not just by the Coalition: it was routinely described in much of the media as a signal achievement of Peter Dutton, an obviously good fact about his leadership to be praised.
And so it might have continued, had not the cost of that unity become horribly clear on election night: the consequence of policies like work-from-home that voters hated, a nuclear policy that served little purpose other than making it possible for climate deniers to sit alongside Liberal moderates, a Trump-lite approach that was wrong for the times, and a series of contradictory policy positions that were obviously never properly tested through discussion.
The reality is that after a large election loss, like the one in 2022, a party needs to resolve its differences over what is wrong and where to go. There are two ways to do this. One is via a series of elections in which its approach is gradually sharpened – which tends to be both exhausting and demoralising. The other is by having open debate. Dutton and those who praised him for maintaining unity were, in effect, choosing the long road of trial and error. Perhaps worse, the 'unity' path not only delivered defeat: it means the Coalition is three years behind where it could be in conducting that difficult discussion.
We all can and should criticise the Coalition for this. But what should not be missed, as we head into another three-year term, is that much of the press backed this approach. Part of the Coalition's mistake was to believe its own publicity.

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His involvement with the Trump administration has provoked widespread protests at Tesla sites, driving down sales while investors fretted that Musk's attention was too divided. with AP US President Donald Trump is not interested in talking with his former ally Elon Musk, amid a bitter feud over the president's sweeping tax-cut bill, a White House official said, adding that no phone call between the two men is planned for the day. A separate White House official had said earlier that Trump and Musk were going to talk to each other on Friday. "I'm not even thinking about Elon. He's got a problem, the poor guy's got a problem," Trump told CNN on Friday morning. Trump, the world's most powerful leader, and Musk, the world's richest man, battled openly on Thursday in an extraordinary day of hostilities - largely over social media - that marked a stark end to a close alliance. Shares in Musk's Tesla rose 4.5 per cent when markets opened on Friday. In Thursday's session, the stock dived 14 per cent and lost about $150 billion in value, the largest single-day decline in the electric vehicle maker's history. Musk bankrolled a large part of Trump's presidential campaign and was then brought to the White House to head up a controversial effort to downsize the federal workforce and slash spending. The falling-out began brewing days ago when Musk, who left his role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency a week ago, denounced Trump's tax-cut and spending bill. The feud is complicating efforts to pass the bill, which is the president's main demand of the Republican-controlled Congress. Musk has denounced the package, which contains most of Trump's domestic priorities, as a "disgusting abomination" that would add too much to the nation's $36.2 trillion in debt. The package narrowly passed the House of Representatives last month and is now before the Senate, where Republicans say they will make further changes. 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That would be highly unlikely given Trump's Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of Congress. Trump, for his part, suggested he would terminate government contracts with Musk's businesses, which include rocket company SpaceX and its satellite unit Starlink. Musk, whose space business plays a critical role in the US government's space program, responded that he would begin decommissioning SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft, which is the only US spacecraft capable of sending astronauts to the International Space Station. He backed off the threat later in the day. Musk had already said he planned to curtail his political spending, and on Tuesday he called for "all politicians who betrayed the American people" to be fired next year. His involvement with the Trump administration has provoked widespread protests at Tesla sites, driving down sales while investors fretted that Musk's attention was too divided. with AP

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US job growth slowed in May amid uncertainty about the Trump administration's import tariffs, but solid wage growth should keep the economic expansion on track and potentially allow the Federal Reserve to delay resuming its interest rate cuts. The ebbing labour market momentum reported by the Labor Department on Friday was underscored by sharp downward revisions that showed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than previously estimated over the two month period. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent for the third consecutive month because 625,000 people dropped out of the labour force, suggesting a lack of confidence in the jobs market and offsetting a decline in household employment. Recent surveys have pointed to consumers becoming less optimistic about their prospects of finding a job in the event of being laid off. Economists say President Donald Trump's flip-flopping on import tariffs has hampered businesses' ability to plan ahead and hire more workers. 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US job growth slowed in May amid uncertainty about the Trump administration's import tariffs, but solid wage growth should keep the economic expansion on track and potentially allow the Federal Reserve to delay resuming its interest rate cuts. The ebbing labour market momentum reported by the Labor Department on Friday was underscored by sharp downward revisions that showed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than previously estimated over the two month period. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent for the third consecutive month because 625,000 people dropped out of the labour force, suggesting a lack of confidence in the jobs market and offsetting a decline in household employment. Recent surveys have pointed to consumers becoming less optimistic about their prospects of finding a job in the event of being laid off. Economists say President Donald Trump's flip-flopping on import tariffs has hampered businesses' ability to plan ahead and hire more workers. Opposition to Trump's tax-cut and spending bill from conservative Republicans in the US Senate and tech billionaire Elon Musk has added another layer of uncertainty for companies. "The Labour market continues to slow steadily, but the sky is not falling," said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings. "Given the backdrop of trade policy uncertainties, the Fed will be relieved with this report. The tariff landscape is still very uncertain." Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 147,000 in April, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the survey of establishments to show 130,000 jobs added after a previously reported rise of 177,000 in April. The payrolls count for March was slashed by 65,000 to 120,000. The economy needs to create roughly 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. 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US job growth slowed in May amid uncertainty about the Trump administration's import tariffs, but solid wage growth should keep the economic expansion on track and potentially allow the Federal Reserve to delay resuming its interest rate cuts. The ebbing labour market momentum reported by the Labor Department on Friday was underscored by sharp downward revisions that showed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than previously estimated over the two month period. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent for the third consecutive month because 625,000 people dropped out of the labour force, suggesting a lack of confidence in the jobs market and offsetting a decline in household employment. Recent surveys have pointed to consumers becoming less optimistic about their prospects of finding a job in the event of being laid off. Economists say President Donald Trump's flip-flopping on import tariffs has hampered businesses' ability to plan ahead and hire more workers. Opposition to Trump's tax-cut and spending bill from conservative Republicans in the US Senate and tech billionaire Elon Musk has added another layer of uncertainty for companies. "The Labour market continues to slow steadily, but the sky is not falling," said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings. "Given the backdrop of trade policy uncertainties, the Fed will be relieved with this report. The tariff landscape is still very uncertain." Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 147,000 in April, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the survey of establishments to show 130,000 jobs added after a previously reported rise of 177,000 in April. The payrolls count for March was slashed by 65,000 to 120,000. The economy needs to create roughly 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. That number could drop as Trump has revoked the temporary legal status of hundreds of thousands of migrants as part of his administration's immigration crackdown. Much of the job growth this year reflects worker hoarding by businesses, anchoring the labour market and economy through higher wages. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4 per cent after gaining 0.2 per cent in April. In the 12 months through May, wages rose 3.9 per cent, matching April's advance. US stocks opened higher. The dollar gained against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields rose. Employers' reluctance to lay off workers could keep the US central bank on the sidelines until the end of the year. Financial markets expect the Fed will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25-4.50 per cent range at a policy meeting later this month, before resuming its policy easing in September.

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