Any Trump deal with Iran must tackle nuclear watchdog's blind spots
By Francois Murphy and John Irish
VIENNA (Reuters) -U.N. inspectors monitoring Iran's Fordow nuclear site confronted a major gap in their knowledge last year as they watched trucks carrying advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges roll into the facility dug into a mountain south of Tehran.
While Iran had notified the International Atomic Energy Agency that hundreds of extra IR-6 centrifuges would be installed at Fordow, the inspectors had no idea where the sophisticated machines had come from, an official familiar with the U.N. monitoring work told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
The episode encapsulated how the U.N. nuclear watchdog has lost track of some critical elements of Iran's nuclear activities since U.S. President Donald Trump ditched a 2015 deal that imposed strict restrictions and close IAEA supervision.
Key blind spots include not knowing how many centrifuges Iran possesses or where the machines and their parts are produced and stored, quarterly IAEA reports show. The agency has also lost the ability to carry out snap inspections at locations not declared by Iran.
The U.S. has started new talks with Iran, aiming to impose fresh nuclear restrictions on Tehran. For any deal to succeed, though, those IAEA blind spots will need to be closed, according to more than a dozen people familiar with Iran's atomic activities, including officials, diplomats and analysts.
"There are gaps in our knowledge of Iran's nuclear programme that must be addressed in order to have a baseline understanding of its current scale and scope," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank.
"That may take months to piece together but it's critical if the IAEA and parties to the negotiations are to have confidence in the non-proliferation benefits of an agreement."
The IAEA, which answers to 180 member states, declined to comment for this article. The Iranian foreign ministry and Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation didn't respond to queries.
Iran has long held that it was entitled to scrap its commitments to enhanced IAEA supervision under the 2015 deal after the U.S. unilaterally withdrew. It rejects Western accusations that it is at least keeping the option of building a nuclear weapon open, saying its aims are purely peaceful.
The Islamic Republic has nonetheless made big strides in uranium enrichment in recent years.
When the U.S. and world powers struck the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, they sought to limit Tehran's "breakout time" - how long it would need to produce enough fissile material for a single atom bomb - to at least a year by capping the purity to which it could enrich uranium at below 4%.
Now that breakout time has all but evaporated. Iran has installed ever more advanced centrifuges and is enriching to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade.
According to a confidential report by the IAEA at the weekend, Iran has enough uranium enriched to that level for nine nuclear weapons if refined further, by an agency yardstick.
No other country has enriched uranium to such a high level without producing weapons, the watchdog added. Nuclear power plants often use fuel enriched to between 3% and 5%.
A European official who follows Iran's nuclear programme told Reuters the enrichment programme was now so advanced that, even if it was shut down entirely, the Iranians could restart and rebuild it in the space of a few months.
After five rounds of discussions between Iranian and U.S. negotiators, several obstacles remain. Among them are Iran's rejection of an American demand that it commit to scrapping enrichment and its refusal to ship its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium abroad.
Given the window has closed to restore as long a breakout time as in 2015, any new deal would instead have to bolster IAEA supervision of the nuclear programme, said the official who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Roughly three years ago Iran ordered the removal of all the surveillance and monitoring equipment added by the 2015 deal, including surveillance cameras at the workshops that make centrifuge parts. At that point the IAEA had already not had access to those cameras' footage for more than a year.
While the IAEA sees the roughly 20,000 centrifuges installed at Iran's enrichment facilities, it does now know how many more have been produced in recent years and are now elsewhere.
A U.S. State Department spokesperson said IAEA monitoring was critical for the international community to understand the full extent of Iran's nuclear programme, though adding it was not in America's interest to "negotiate these issues publicly".
IRAN REJECTS US ENRICHMENT DEMAND
The 2015, Obama-era deal capped the purity to which Iran could enrich uranium at 3.67%, well below the 20% it had already reached then, and restricted the number and type of centrifuges Iran could use and where. Enrichment was not allowed at Fordow.
Iran, meanwhile, agreed to the snap inspections and an expansion of the IAEA's oversight to include areas like centrifuge production and its stock of so-called yellowcake uranium that has not been enriched.
IAEA reports showed Iran adhered to limits on key elements of its nuclear programme, including enrichment, until more than a year after Trump abandoned the pact in 2018, during his first term. The U.S. president decried a "horrible one-sided deal" that did not address other issues such as Iran's ballistic missile programme or its role in regional conflicts.
His withdrawal prompted Tehran to retaliate, both by eventually pushing far beyond those enrichment and centrifuge limits and by scrapping the extra IAEA supervision put in place after the 2015 deal.
Iran is still, however, providing IAEA inspectors with regular access to its facilities as part of longer-standing obligations as a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which there is no cap on enrichment levels but nuclear technology must be used for peaceful purposes.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators started their new nuclear talks in April, with Trump having threatened military action if no pact is struck.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said in Washington in April that it is important Iran accept "indispensable" restrictions to enable his agency to reassure the world about Iran's intentions, without specifying the curbs. He has also said last week any new deal should provide for "very robust inspection by the IAEA".
The IAEA says it cannot currently "provide assurance that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful".
COMPLETING THE PUZZLE
Diplomats have for years expected that any new deal will task the IAEA with creating a so-called baseline, a complete picture of where all areas of Iran's nuclear programme stand, filling in gaps in the agency's knowledge as much as it can.
Establishing a baseline will be particularly challenging since some blind spots have lasted so long they cannot fully be filled in; the IAEA has said in quarterly reports to member states it has lost "continuity of knowledge" and will not be able to restore it on production and inventory of centrifuges, certain centrifuge parts and yellowcake.
"Assembling that puzzle will be an essential part of any deal. We know establishing that new baseline will be hard," said Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst now at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a non-governmental organisation focused on security and based in Washington.
"It will depend in part on how cooperative Iran is."
Even then, there is a significant risk the IAEA would lack a complete picture of Tehran's activities, he added.
"Is that uncertainty acceptable to the United States?" Brewer said. "Important question."
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hamilton Spectator
21 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
What to know about inspections of Iran's nuclear program by the IAEA ahead of a key board vote
VIENNA (AP) — Iran's nuclear program remains a top focus for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, particularly as any possible deal between Tehran and the United States over the program would likely rely on the agency long known as the United Nations' nuclear watchdog. This week, Western nations will push for a measure at the IAEA's Board of Governors censuring Iran over its noncompliance with inspectors, pushing the matter before the U.N. Security Council. Barring any deal with Washington, Iran then could face what's known as 'snapback' — the reimposition of all U.N. sanctions on it originally lifted by Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, if one of its Western parties declares the Islamic Republic is out of compliance with it. All this sets the stage for a renewed confrontation with Iran as the Mideast remains inflamed by Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip . And the IAEA's work in any case will make the Vienna-based agency a key player. Here's more to know about the IAEA, its inspections of Iran and the deals — and dangers — at play. Atoms for peace The IAEA was created in 1957. The idea for it grew out of a 1953 speech given by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower at the U.N., in which he urged the creation of an agency to monitor the world's nuclear stockpiles to ensure that 'the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life.' Broadly speaking, the agency verifies the reported stockpiles of member nations. Those nations are divided into three categories. The vast majority are nations with so-called 'comprehensive safeguards agreements' with the IAEA, states without nuclear weapons that allow IAE monitoring over all nuclear material and activities. Then there's the 'voluntary offer agreements' with the world's original nuclear weapons states — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — typically for civilian sites. Finally, the IAEA has 'item-specific agreements' with India, Israel and Pakistan — nuclear-armed countries that haven't signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. That treaty has countries agree not to build or obtain nuclear weapons. North Korea, which is also nuclear armed, said it has withdrawn from the treaty, though that's disputed by some experts. The collapse of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, negotiated under then-President Barack Obama, allowed Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67% — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant but far below the threshold of 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. It also drastically reduced Iran's stockpile of uranium, limited its use of centrifuges and relied on the IAEA to oversee Tehran's compliance through additional oversight. But President Donald Trump in his first term in 2018 unilaterally withdrew America from the accord , insisting it wasn't tough enough and didn't address Iran's missile program or its support for militant groups in the wider Mideast. That set in motion years of tensions, including attacks at sea and on land . Iran now enriches up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. It also has enough of a stockpile to build multiple nuclear bombs, should it choose to do so. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA, Western intelligence agencies and others say Tehran had an organized weapons program up until 2003. IAEA inspections and Iran Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to allow the IAEA even greater access to its nuclear program. That included permanently installing cameras and sensors at nuclear sites. Those cameras, inside of metal housings sprayed with a special blue paint that shows any attempt to tamper with it, took still images of sensitive sites. Other devices, known as online enrichment monitors, measured the uranium enrichment level at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The IAEA also regularly sent inspectors into Iranian sites to conduct surveys, sometimes collecting environmental samples with cotton clothes and swabs that would be tested at IAEA labs back in Austria. Others monitor Iranian sites via satellite images. In the years since Trump's 2018 decision, Iran has limited IAEA inspections and stopped the agency from accessing camera footage . It's also removed cameras . At one point, Iran accused an IAEA inspector of testing positive for explosive nitrates , something the agency disputed. The IAEA has engaged in years of negotiations with Iran to restore full access for its inspectors. While Tehran hasn't granted that, it also hasn't entirely thrown inspectors out. Analysts view this as part of Iran's wider strategy to use its nuclear program as a bargaining chip with the West. What happens next Iran and the U.S. have gone through five rounds of negotiations over a possible deal, with talks mediated by the sultanate of Oman . Iran appears poised to reject an American proposal over a deal this week, potentially as soon as Tuesday. Without a deal with the U.S., Iran's long-ailing economy could enter a freefall that could worsen the simmering unrest at home. Israel or the U.S. might carry out long-threatened airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. Experts fear Tehran in response could decide to fully end its cooperation with the IAEA, abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and rush toward a bomb. If a deal is reached — or at least a tentative understanding between the two sides — that likely will take the pressure off for an immediate military strike by the U.S. Gulf Arab states, which opposed Obama's negotiations with Iran in 2015, now welcome the talks under Trump. Any agreement would require the IAEA's inspectors to verify Iran's compliance. But Israel, which has struck at Iranian-backed militants across the region, remains a wildcard on what it could do. Last year, it carried out its first military airstrikes on Iran — and has warned it is willing to take action alone to target Tehran's program, like it has in the past in Iraq in 1981 or Syria in 2007. ___ Associated Press writer Stephanie Liechtenstein contributed to this report. ___ The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content. ___ Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape: Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
Associated Press
35 minutes ago
- Associated Press
What to know about inspections of Iran's nuclear program by the IAEA ahead of a key board vote
VIENNA (AP) — Iran's nuclear program remains a top focus for inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, particularly as any possible deal between Tehran and the United States over the program would likely rely on the agency long known as the United Nations' nuclear watchdog. This week, Western nations will push for a measure at the IAEA's Board of Governors censuring Iran over its noncompliance with inspectors, pushing the matter before the U.N. Security Council. Barring any deal with Washington, Iran then could face what's known as 'snapback' — the reimposition of all U.N. sanctions on it originally lifted by Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, if one of its Western parties declares the Islamic Republic is out of compliance with it. All this sets the stage for a renewed confrontation with Iran as the Mideast remains inflamed by Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. And the IAEA's work in any case will make the Vienna-based agency a key player. Here's more to know about the IAEA, its inspections of Iran and the deals — and dangers — at play. Atoms for peace The IAEA was created in 1957. The idea for it grew out of a 1953 speech given by U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower at the U.N., in which he urged the creation of an agency to monitor the world's nuclear stockpiles to ensure that 'the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life.' Broadly speaking, the agency verifies the reported stockpiles of member nations. Those nations are divided into three categories. The vast majority are nations with so-called 'comprehensive safeguards agreements' with the IAEA, states without nuclear weapons that allow IAE monitoring over all nuclear material and activities. Then there's the 'voluntary offer agreements' with the world's original nuclear weapons states — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. — typically for civilian sites. Finally, the IAEA has 'item-specific agreements' with India, Israel and Pakistan — nuclear-armed countries that haven't signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. That treaty has countries agree not to build or obtain nuclear weapons. North Korea, which is also nuclear armed, said it has withdrawn from the treaty, though that's disputed by some experts. The collapse of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, negotiated under then-President Barack Obama, allowed Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67% — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant but far below the threshold of 90% needed for weapons-grade uranium. It also drastically reduced Iran's stockpile of uranium, limited its use of centrifuges and relied on the IAEA to oversee Tehran's compliance through additional oversight. But President Donald Trump in his first term in 2018 unilaterally withdrew America from the accord, insisting it wasn't tough enough and didn't address Iran's missile program or its support for militant groups in the wider Mideast. That set in motion years of tensions, including attacks at sea and on land. Iran now enriches up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels. It also has enough of a stockpile to build multiple nuclear bombs, should it choose to do so. Iran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the IAEA, Western intelligence agencies and others say Tehran had an organized weapons program up until 2003. IAEA inspections and Iran Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to allow the IAEA even greater access to its nuclear program. That included permanently installing cameras and sensors at nuclear sites. Those cameras, inside of metal housings sprayed with a special blue paint that shows any attempt to tamper with it, took still images of sensitive sites. Other devices, known as online enrichment monitors, measured the uranium enrichment level at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. The IAEA also regularly sent inspectors into Iranian sites to conduct surveys, sometimes collecting environmental samples with cotton clothes and swabs that would be tested at IAEA labs back in Austria. Others monitor Iranian sites via satellite images. In the years since Trump's 2018 decision, Iran has limited IAEA inspections and stopped the agency from accessing camera footage. It's also removed cameras. At one point, Iran accused an IAEA inspector of testing positive for explosive nitrates, something the agency disputed. The IAEA has engaged in years of negotiations with Iran to restore full access for its inspectors. While Tehran hasn't granted that, it also hasn't entirely thrown inspectors out. Analysts view this as part of Iran's wider strategy to use its nuclear program as a bargaining chip with the West. What happens next Iran and the U.S. have gone through five rounds of negotiations over a possible deal, with talks mediated by the sultanate of Oman. Iran appears poised to reject an American proposal over a deal this week, potentially as soon as Tuesday. Without a deal with the U.S., Iran's long-ailing economy could enter a freefall that could worsen the simmering unrest at home. Israel or the U.S. might carry out long-threatened airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. Experts fear Tehran in response could decide to fully end its cooperation with the IAEA, abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and rush toward a bomb. If a deal is reached — or at least a tentative understanding between the two sides — that likely will take the pressure off for an immediate military strike by the U.S. Gulf Arab states, which opposed Obama's negotiations with Iran in 2015, now welcome the talks under Trump. Any agreement would require the IAEA's inspectors to verify Iran's compliance. But Israel, which has struck at Iranian-backed militants across the region, remains a wildcard on what it could do. Last year, it carried out its first military airstrikes on Iran — and has warned it is willing to take action alone to target Tehran's program, like it has in the past in Iraq in 1981 or Syria in 2007. ___ Associated Press writer Stephanie Liechtenstein contributed to this report. ___ The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content. ___ Additional AP coverage of the nuclear landscape:
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China's Xi urges respect, 'right track' in call with South Korean counterpart
BEIJING (Reuters) -Chinese President Xi Jinping told South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on Tuesday that the two countries should respect each other's core interests and major concerns, and ensure ties move forward "on the right track", Chinese state media reported. In their first phone call since Lee took office last week, Xi said healthy, stable and continuously deepening China-South Korea relations were conducive to regional and world peace and stability, according to state broadcaster CCTV. China is South Korea's biggest trading partner and diplomatic relations between the two have improved since a 2017 spat over South Korea's installation of a U.S. missile defence system that Beijing opposed. Xi urged the two countries to strengthen exchanges, adhere to the direction of "friendly neighbours" and jointly safeguard global and regional industrial, supply chains. A strategic cooperative partnership between both countries would bring more benefits to both and "inject more certainty into the chaotic regional and international situation." "It is necessary to respect each other's core interests and major concerns, firmly grasp the general direction of bilateral relations, and ensure that relations always move forward on the right track," Xi was quoted as saying by CCTV. Lee's decisive victory in last week's snap election stands to usher in a sea-change in Asia's fourth-largest economy. He faces what could be the most daunting set of challenges for a South Korean leader in nearly three decades, ranging from healing a country deeply scarred by his predecessor's martial law attempt to tackling unpredictable protectionist moves by the United States, a major trading partner and a security ally.
