Join scientists as they drive into hailstorms to study the costly weather extreme

San Francisco Chronicle​

2 days ago

SHAMROCK, Texas (AP) — As severe storms once again soak, twist and pelt the nation's midsection, a team of dozens of scientists is driving into them to study one of the nation's costliest but least-appreciated weather dangers: Hail.
Hail rarely kills, but it hammers roofs, cars and crops to the tune of $10 billion a year in damage in the U.S. So in one of the few federally funded science studies remaining after Trump administration cuts, teams from several universities are observing storms from the inside and seeing how the hail forms. Project ICECHIP has already collected and dissected hail the size of small cantaloupes, along with ice balls of all sizes and shapes.
Scientists in two hail-dimpled vehicles with special mesh protecting the windshields are driving straight into the heart of the storms, an area known as the 'shaft' where the hail pelting is the most intense. It's a first-of-its-kind icy twist on tornado chasing.
'It's an interesting experience. It sounds like somebody on the outside of your vehicle is hitting you with a hammer,' said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, one of the lead researchers.
A team of journalists from The Associated Press joined them this week in a several-day trek across the Great Plains, starting Tuesday morning in northern Texas with a weather briefing before joining a caravan of scientists and students looking for ice.
Driving toward the most extreme forecasts
The caravan features more than a dozen radar trucks and weather balloon launching vehicles. At each site, the scientists load and unload drones, lasers and cameras and other specialized equipment. There are foam pads to measure hail impact and experimental roofing material. There are even special person-sized funnels to collect pristine hail before it hits the ground and becomes tainted with dirt.
Already in treks across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, the team has found hail measuring more than 5 inches (13 centimeters) in diameter — bigger than a softball, but not quite a soccer ball. The team's equipment and vehicles already sport dings, dimples and dents that scientists show off like battle scars.
'We got a few good whacks,' said forensic engineer Tim Marshall, who was carrying roofing samples to see if there were ways shingles could better handle hail. 'I look at broken, busted stuff all the time.'
At Tuesday's weather briefing, retired National Weather Service forecaster David Imy pointed to potential hot spots this week in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Computer models show the potential for a 'monster storm down here near the Red River" later in the week, he said. Acting on the latest forecasts, Gensini and other leaders told the team to head to Altus, Oklahoma, but be ready to cross the Red River back into Texas at a moment's notice.
A few hours after his briefing, Imy had the opportunity to chase one of the bigger storms, packing what radar showed was large hail at 8,000 feet (2,438 meters) in the air. Because of the warm air closer to the surface, the hail was only pea sized by the time it hit the ground. But the outing still provided good data and beautiful views for Imy, who was with a group that stationed themselves about a half-mile from the center of the storm.
'Beautiful colors: turquoise, bluish green, teal,' Imy said, pointing to the mushroom shaped cloud dominating the sky. 'This is beauty to me and also seeing the power of nature.'
A costly but overlooked severe weather problem
This is not just a bunch of scientists looking for an adrenaline rush or another sequel to the movie 'Twister.' It's serious science research into weather that damages a lot of crops in the Midwest, Gensini said. Hail damage is so costly that the insurance industry is helping to pay for the mission, which is primarily funded by the National Science Foundation.
'These are the stones that do the most damage to lives and property,' Gensini said. 'We want the biggest hail possible.'
A 2024 study by Gensini found that as the world warms from human-caused climate change, small hailstones will become less likely while the larger ones become more common. The bigger, more damaging ones that the ICECHIP team is studying are projected to increase 15% to 75% this century depending on how much the world warms. That's because the stronger updrafts in storms would keep stones aloft longer to get bigger, but the heat would melt the tinier ones.
The experiment is unique because of the combination of driving into the hail and deploying numerous radars and weather balloons to get an overall picture of how the storms work, Gensini said, adding that hail is often overlooked because researchers have considered it a lower priority than other extreme weather events.
Outside scientists said the research mission looks promising because there are a lot of unanswered questions about hail. Hail is the No. 1 reason for soaring costs in billion-dollar weather disasters in the United States, said meteorologist Jeff Masters, who cofounded Weather Underground and is now at Yale Climate Connections.
'Now a large part of that reason is because we simply have more people with more stuff in harm's way," said Masters, who wasn't part of the research. 'Insurance has become unaffordable in a lot of places and hail has become a big reason."
In Colorado, hail is 'actually our most costly natural disaster,' said Lori Peek, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado, adding that 'hail does such incredible damage to property."
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