Oilers slightly favored over Panthers in Stanley Cup Final rematch

San Francisco Chronicle​

3 days ago

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.
But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which largely explains why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.
'However you want to look at this pie, you could make an argument that either team could be favored,' Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. 'Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time.'
BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the first Canadian team since Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.
BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has come in on the Oilers.
'I would expect that to probably continue,' Cipollini said. 'I think we'll probably take a little more Oilers money just because of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will end up getting an even projection.'
Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers should be favored.
'You don't see rematches too often in the Cup Final,' Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two teams better or worse than they were last year? I'd say Florida is a better version of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) slightly worse than last year, especially when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?
'I give the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter team than they were last year.'
McDavid to repeat?
Edmonton's captain became the second skater and sixth player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.
McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a chance to make even more history even if the Panthers win.
'Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?' Cipollini asked. 'He is the favorite because of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could give it to him here, but that's something to watch as the games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't really standing out ... there is a real world where it could be him again in a losing effort.'
Relying on Skinner
Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been viewed as a weakness on the roster, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.
But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or zero goals in five of his past seven starts, three of them shutouts.
Another great run in the net could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.
'I would not have told you this was sustainable before,' Smith said of Skinner's hot play. 'Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable.'
Experienced vs. tired Panthers
Florida is making its third consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could finally catch up to the Panthers. Or they could simply be on a heater having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.
Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.
'I don't hate where we're at with this one,' Shreeve said. 'Last year was a little bit tougher because more people liked Florida, but people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like.'
NBA romp could benefit NHL
Because this series apparently could go either way and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.
'I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup,' Shreeve said. 'The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a chance to go six or seven games, which would help.'
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