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Pakistan: 'Security state' on the rise amid regional tension – DW – 06/11/2025

Pakistan: 'Security state' on the rise amid regional tension – DW – 06/11/2025

DW2 days ago

Shamil Shams
|
Manaf Siddique
both in Karachi
06/11/2025
June 11, 2025
The conflict with India over Kashmir, the crisis in the Middle East, and the US-Iran tensions have once again put the army in the driver's seat in Pakistani politics. What does it mean for the nation's fragile democracy?

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Operation Rising Lion Decapitates Iranian Command: IRGC Chief Salami, Nuclear Scientists Tehranchi & Abbasi Killed in Israeli Strike
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Operation Rising Lion Decapitates Iranian Command: IRGC Chief Salami, Nuclear Scientists Tehranchi & Abbasi Killed in Israeli Strike

Israeli forces launched a preemptive strike late last week that reportedly claimed the life of Major General Hossein Salami, commander‑in‑chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with several other high‑ranking figures. The operation, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, targeted multiple Iranian military and nuclear installations including the Natanz enrichment facility and the IRGC headquarters. The assault unfolded on Thursday, June 12. Later reports stated that Salami died on the night of June 13, 2025. Officials confirmed that nuclear scientists Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi were killed, while other accounts suggested that Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Commander General Gholamali Rashid and military chief Mohammad Bagheri might have suffered casualties. The reported killings marked a notable event in the Israel‑Iran conflict. The strike formed part of a broader aerial campaign intended to undermine Iran's nuclear weaponization program and its ballistic missile arsenal. "We have begun this operation because the time has come, we are at the point of no return," said Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, in a televised address. "Today, our strong and brave soldiers and our people unite to defend ourselves from those who seek our destruction, and in defending ourselves, we defend many others and push back the murderous tyranny," he added. Salami, who joined the IRGC in 1980 during the Iran‑Iraq War, rose through the ranks before Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed him commander‑in‑chief in 2019. Known for his harsh rhetoric toward the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, he played a central role in projecting Tehran's military influence in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. In the days preceding the assault, he warned, "Any Israeli attack will provoke a harsher and more painful response than anything the region has ever known." Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the strike's preemptive nature. "Following the State of Israel's preventive attack against Iran, missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilian population are expected immediately," said Katz. In preparation for potential retaliation, Israel closed its airspace. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, "Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved," said Rubio. The operation struck multiple strategic targets. The aerial campaign hit not only nuclear sites but also military assets linked to Iran's missile program. Israeli officials described the action as essential for national self‑defense, and the elimination of Salami and other senior figures dealt a blow to Iran's power hierarchy. The operation occurred at a critical juncture in a longstanding conflict. Iran's IRGC, which controlled the nation's ballistic missile capabilities and was designated a terrorist entity internationally, had assumed an increasing role in regional proxy warfare. With his death, Tehran lost one of its military strategists, as Salami played a role in shaping Iran's asymmetric warfare doctrine and expanding its network of terror proxies throughout the Middle East. The strikes also affected civilian areas. Explosions rocked parts of Tehran, and reports indicated that residential structures sustained damage while civilians were injured. Iranian authorities had not issued an official statement on the full extent of the damage, and the operation thrust the region into heightened alert. Originally published on HNGN

Oil Prices Jump Over 8%: Mukesh Sahdev Warns of a Looming Blockade of the Hormuz Strait
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Brent crude rose 8.7% above US$75 per barrel North Sea oil increased 11% to US$78 West Texas Intermediate advanced 7.8% to US$73.7 per barrel Oil prices jumped amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran as fears over supply disruptions increased. Benchmark prices surged after Israel had launched military strikes against Iranian targets related to nuclear and military facilities. Brent crude rose 8.7% above US$75 per barrel, North Sea oil increased 11% to US$78, and West Texas Intermediate advanced 7.8% to US$73.7 per barrel. Israeli leadership demonstrated its resolve. The Prime Minister stated that the strikes aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile factories, and military capabilities, adding, "Until the danger is eliminated," and indicating that the attacks would continue until the Iran threat was removed. Iranian state television reported the assassination of Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Rumors of an Israeli attack emerged on Wednesday and intensified market concerns. "We were not involved in these attacks. President Trump and his administration took all necessary steps to protect our forces and maintained close contact with our regional allies. Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel," said Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, as reported by El Financiero. Market forces reacted swiftly. Rumors triggered a US$12 per barrel surge on concerns that conflict might reduce Iranian oil supplies and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which around 25% of global oil trade passed. Analysts warned that closing the Strait could prevent delivery of up to one-fifth of market oil and affect large shipments of liquefied gas from Qatar to Europe. Supply concerns increased as escalation risk prompted stricter Western sanctions on Iran that could limit its oil sales. Analysts noted that further attacks on Iranian oil installations might reduce output and that conflict in the region could lead to a lower available supply. Some industry experts balanced the concerns. Mukesh Sahdev, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy A/S, said, "The OPEC+ excess capacity has the potential to offset the loss of Iranian production." Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte, said the escalation increased the risk of supply disruptions from major oil-producing countries and contagion while sustained higher energy costs might drive global inflation. Technical indicators signaled growing apprehension. The near-term Brent crude futures spread deepened into backwardation, reaching US$1.53 per barrel compared to 92 cents the previous day. The spread between the December 2023 and December 2026 contracts exceeded US$2 per barrel, up from 50 cents the day before. These factors erased earlier losses, and oil recorded its largest weekly increase since 2022 along with the highest single-day percentage jump since March 2022. Other strategists cautioned about the outlook. JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned that oil prices might reach US$130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario in the Middle East. Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Groep NV, said, "We are again in an environment of greater geopolitical uncertainty, leaving the oil market on edge and requiring it to start discounting a higher risk premium for any possible supply disruption." Andy Lipow, an analyst at Rapidan Energy Group, warned, "If exports are affected by the Strait of Hormuz, we could see the barrel at US$100," and he added that excluding Iranian oil could raise prices by about US$7.50 per barrel. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group argued that the oil market had been complacent about geopolitical risks and would likely incorporate a higher risk premium in crude oil prices. Additional measures underscored the impact of the developments. U.S. government employees and their families in Israel faced travel restrictions outside urban areas, while gold prices surpassed US$3,425 per ounce as investors sought refuge amid uncertainty. Earlier, threats from Tehran prompted the U.S. to order employees to leave its Baghdad embassy after Tehran warned that it might target U.S. assets. Diplomatic efforts remained uncertain. Before the Israeli strikes, the United States and Iran had scheduled a sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman, underscoring the delicate regional balance. With a third of global crude oil production represented in the region, the escalation reflected a risk to energy supplies worldwide.

China, UK trade deals with Trump pile pressure on EU – DW – 06/12/2025
China, UK trade deals with Trump pile pressure on EU – DW – 06/12/2025

DW

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  • DW

China, UK trade deals with Trump pile pressure on EU – DW – 06/12/2025

Following Britain, China has struck a trade deal with the US, President Donald Trump has announced. Meanwhile, the EU is still pondering its way out of tariff hell, and US officials make clear it is back of the line. After London comes Beijing: US President Donald Trump announced a breakthrough in talks with China to put an end to their rapidly escalating tariff war on Wednesday night, though the details of the agreement remain unclear, and key elements are still awaiting formal approval. "Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi [Jinping] and me," Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. "Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)" One day later, the scope of the deal remains uncertain. Neither Trump nor US officials had clarified which tariffs might be lifted or what concessions were included, according to the Associated Press news agency. Negotiations appear to be ongoing. 'Liberation Day' wounds healing Two months ago, Trump announced a blanket baseline 10% tariffs on virtually all goods imported into the US, an event he dubbed "Liberation Day." Higher country-specific rates followed, with Chinese imports hit particularly hard. Beijing immediately retaliated, with sharp increases of its own, sending bilateral tariffs soaring — peaking at 145% in some cases — on a trade relationship worth $583 billion (approximately €503.5 billion) in 2024. Trump's tariff spree is all part of a grand plan to put 'America First,' particularly in the production of goods Image:/AFP While recent negotiations have helped bring mutual tariffs down, tensions remain. As of mid-May, US tariffs on Chinese goods averaged 51%, while Chinese tariffs on US goods stood at 33%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a US think tank. The UK and the US struck a much-vaunted deal one month ago. However, tariffs on key goods remain in place, pending further implementation. Europe treads cautiously Compared to China, the EU has so far opted for a rather restrained approach, with high-level officials engaged in intensive talks. As of April, most EU exports to the US have faced 10% tariffs. Additional 25% duties on steel and aluminum, imposed in March, remain in effect. The bloc has so far avoided the higher rates slapped on China. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was proud of his US deal. Will von der Leyen be able to get one over the line? Image: Carl Court/AFP The EU was poised to hit back with significant countermeasures on everything from whiskey to motorcycles prepared a second package, though both have been paused as EU-US negotiations continue. Brussels is pushing for a "zero-for-zero" trade agreement, aiming to eliminate tariffs on industrial goods. So far, talks have stalled. One of Trump's key complaints is the persistent trade imbalance. In 2024, the US imported significantly more goods from the EU than it exported, with a trade deficit of $216 billion, according to official US figures. However, the EU frequently argues that the US sells far more services to the bloc than the other way round. One option the European Commission, which as the EU executive branch represents the 27 member states in negotiations, has proposed is pushing EU companies and countries to buy more natural gas from the US, a shift that is already well under way since it turned away from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. EU's nuclear option If all else fails for the EU and Trump resorts to 50% tariffs or even higher rates, there has been some discussion of another more radical move from the EU. "Should Europe retaliate if Trump's tariffs hit on 9 July, and how? If yes, then there seems to be general agreement that, beyond tariffs on goods, US digital services are the most likely and vulnerable target," Tobias Gehrke of the European Council on Foreign Relations posted late last month on social media platform Bluesky. Gehrke pointed to the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal framework which empowers the EU to target services and could limit US companies' access to public procurement contracts in Europe. It came into effect in 2023, but has never been used, Time is of the essence With talks ongoing, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has indicated that the bloc is at the back of the line. "I'm optimistic that we can get there with Europe," Lutnick told US broadcaster CNBC on Wednesday. "But Europe will probably be at the very, very end." On Thursday, US outlet Bloomberg reported that EU officials expect talks to extend beyond the current July 9 deadline, citing unnamed sources close to the negotiations. Italy's pecorino cheesemakers feel effects of Trump tariffs To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video For negotiators, the pressure to wrap up a deal is enormous. "We'll get this deal done in the best way possible," an EU official told DW on the condition of anonymity. "But it's very clear that not only in the EU institutions, but also around the member states, people just don't want to go through this anymore." "In the volatile world we're in, everyone wants to have reliable trading partners, and the US just isn't that right now," the source added. In the coming days, the G7 and NATO summits in Canada and the Netherlands respectively, might have presented an opportunity for Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to meet. However, the European Commission said on Thursday that no bilateral meetings were currently planned. "That could still change," Commission spokesperson Miriam Garcia Ferrer told reporters at a briefing in Brussels.

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