Why are Oilers having trouble playing their game against Panthers?

New York Times

a day ago

NHL history informs us that teams with below-average talent can make things less formidable by forcing the more talented team into a rugged, physical clash. The late 1950s Boston Bruins were such a team, and the most famous version of that style arrived in the 1970s after the Philadelphia Flyers hired head coach Fred Shero.
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Shero's keys to success included shorter shifts for skaters, exceptional goaltending and intimidation. Shero discovered that 10 fouls per game garnered three or four penalty calls from the officials, but a higher foul rate did not increase the penalties called. Old-time hockey fans will tell you the Flyers of the 1970s committed so many fouls in a game that the opposition was driven to distraction.
Fast forward to the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, and the Edmonton Oilers have a similar problem. The Florida Panthers are filthy; in fact, you could call them a modern version of Shero's Flyers.
Even more daunting: The Panthers are also an exceptional hockey team.
Why are the Oilers having trouble playing their game? What can be done about it? Here are some thoughts.
The Oilers are taking too many penalties in this series (8:09 per game short-handed, on average), and the impact (five goals for Florida's power play in three games) is devastating.
Edmonton has enjoyed almost the same number of minutes with the man advantage (7:48 per game) but has just three goals. A short-handed marker by Florida's Brad Marchand gives the Panthers a 6-3 advantage in special teams scoring.
That's a goal per game for the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Florida power play is delivering 12.3 goals per 60, while the Oilers are at just 7.7 goals per 60.
The key fix the coaching staff needs to enforce immediately: stay out of the penalty box. The officials are whistle-happy in this series, and the Oilers' lines and pairings can't get any flow at five-on-five. Too much of the game is being played on special teams, which gives Edmonton less time to wheel and take advantage of superior depth.
Given enough time to figure out the Panthers' PK system and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, the Oilers should emerge as the superior special-teams side in the final. Early results have been far short of expectations, but there should be plenty of track to come for Edmonton to turn the tide.
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The two teams have played two overtime games, so the five-on-five total minutes (over 170) in the series give us a nice sample. Florida has the edge in goals (8-4) while the teams are about even in expected goals.
Conversation surrounding the goaltending in the series has been muted so far, but Bobrovsky's .957 five-on-five save percentage against Edmonton in the series towers over the .896 from the Oilers' tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.
As the series continues and talk turns to what looks like a busy summer, fans could see some outside the organization goaltending options pop up in the media name bubble connected to Edmonton.
The final is just three games deep, but the Oilers' five-on-five scoring is averaging just over a goal per game. The concern for Knoblauch and the coaching staff in this area includes slow starts for the impact players (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl). Here's a look at the offence by line, using the team's centres as proxy:
All numbers five-on-five
The Oilers are struggling to score on the depth lines (fourth line has one goal) as well, but the bigger worry comes from the lack of outscoring of McDavid, Draisaitl and the top two forwards together. Combined outscoring for McDavid-Draisaitl through three games is 3-7, far from good enough for the team's top tandem.
If the offence from the top two lines doesn't come around in Games 4 and 5, the series could be over before the elite forwards find the range. Facing an exceptional talent like Aleksander Barkov is a mighty task; the Oilers need McDavid and Draisaitl to outscore.
It's wildly unfair to point out one specific player as a problem, but it's also getting late early. John Klingberg's five-on-five struggles (the Oilers are 1-5 goals when he's on the ice) are having an impact on the results. That includes 1-3 goals when playing with Jake Walman (who is 1-5 overall in the final). That pairing had success (5-4 goals) in the three previous series.
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Edmonton is 3-3 goals at five-on-five in the final when Klingberg is off the ice.
The rest of the Oilers' defence (all numbers five-on-five) against Florida: Evan Bouchard (3-2 goals); Mattias Ekholm (3-3); Darnell Nurse (0-1); Brett Kulak (0-1).
Through three games, the Oilers have yet to join the series against Florida offensively. Barkov's impact is clear; Edmonton's inability to score on the road against the Panthers is now becoming an issue for the second straight final.
The games in Edmonton last week were thrilling, but both went to overtime. Edmonton averaged and allowed four goals per game at Rogers Place.
The offensive outage in Sunrise could be viewed as a one-off, but the Oilers also struggled on the road in last year's final, losing 3-0 (Game 1), 4-1 (Game 2) before exploding in Game 5 (a 5-3 win). In Game 7, the offence once again betrayed the Oilers, and the team lost the final game by a heartbreaking 2-1 score.
The third game of this series may be an outlier. Edmonton surely has more to give offensively and will play a more disciplined game.
There are several factors beyond those two things to consider. While the Oilers boast the best 1-2 combination of forwards on the planet, Barkov and Sam Bennett have been stellar, and Bobrovsky's saves are becoming a bigger story in the series by the day.
All of those things wrapped around the extreme physicality of the Panthers appear to be too much for the Oilers to handle so far.
That can change in a heartbeat. McDavid is inevitable, and the Oilers have the template for victory. Calm feet, adept passing on outlets and stay out of the penalty box.
If the Oilers can deliver those things in Game 4, the series will head back to Edmonton tied.