India red-flags $800 million ADB aid package to Pakistan
New Delhi: India has expressed deep concerns over the potential misuse of the $800 million ADB aid package to Pakistan as the country is increasing its defence expenditure, despite the poor fiscal position, with the army exercising de facto control over the government in Islamabad.
The army top brass now leads the Special Investment Facilitation Council, which gives it more control over the economic policy. India has warned that this entrenched military role poses serious risks of policy reversal and poor reform implementation, according to reliable sources.
Pakistan's tax-GDP ratio has been declining, with the country going through an economic crisis. The foreign exchange reserves have hit rock bottom, and inflation has soared to double-digit figures. However, despite the dire economic situation, the military-driven government has gone for increasing expenditure on defence.
India has also pointed out that Pakistan has a very poor track record in implementing the economic reforms that are mandatory with these aid packages from multilateral institutions.
India's concern is that these funds can be diverted for defence expenditure. The fighter jets purchased from China and the large number of drones used by Pakistan in the wake of Operation Sindoor reflect the increased spending on military hardware, an official said.
It pointed out that Pakistan recently approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the 24th bailout, indicating policy ineffectiveness. This further shows that the previous ADB and IMF-supported programmes have failed to create sustainable macroeconomic stability.
India has also highlighted that Pakistan's policy of promoting cross-border terrorism has led to a worsening of the security situation in the region.
It has further pointed out that Islamabad's track record on implementation of the FATF action points related to terrorist financing investigations and prosecution of leaders of UN-designated terrorist groups and freezing and confiscation of criminal assets is also highly unsatisfactory.
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The Print
40 minutes ago
- The Print
Operation Sindoor: How Rafales, Pakistani J-10s & lots of propaganda moved global defence markets
But as the fog of war began to clear and these claims were found to be exaggerated, Dassault's shares staged a recovery, reflecting a broader market correction. A rally in defence stocks, particularly among Chinese firms, may be attributed to the speculation or claims that Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighters, mainly Chinese-origin JF-17s and J-10Cs, had downed multiple Indian Rafale jets. This was the first instance of Chinese fighter jets being tested in real combat, attracting attention from defence watchers globally. Equally, it was the first time any claim emerged of a Rafale being shot down, an event that weighed on market sentiment, including on Dassault Aviation's stock. New Delhi: The impact of Operation Sindoor extended far beyond the battlefield as aerial battles continued in the stock markets. After India carried out precision strikes on nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the early hours of 7 May, global defence markets reacted with notable fluctuations, reflecting investor sensitivity to regional tensions. ThePrint examines how the 88-hour India-Pakistan standoff sent ripples through global defence markets, impacting the stock prices of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and its subsidiaries, as well as Lockheed Martin and Dassault Aviation. Stock prices are compared from the day Operation Sindoor began through to the closing figures on Thursday, with all values converted to INR using the prevailing exchange rates at the time of reporting. Also read: Defence stocks surge continues amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions since Pahalgam attack Pakistan's propaganda of multiple Rafale jets being shot fuelled Chinese defence stocks China's state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), particularly its Chengdu Aircraft division, saw one of the sharpest stock moves. AVIC Chengdu, which designs and manufactures the JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets used by the Pakistan Air Force, surged from Rs 828 on 7 May to Rs 1,145 by 12 May, witnessing a massive 38 percent jump in five days. Although the stock had cooled to Rs 939 by Thursday, it retained a net gain of 13 percent since the launch of Op Sindoor. Furthermore, another subsidiary of the state-owned AVIC group—AVIC Airborne Systems—which supplies precision avionics and weapons for the J-series jets operated by Pakistan, also saw a modest rise. Its stock climbed from Rs 136 to Rs 144 between 7 May and 12 May, marking a 5.9% increase that reflected growing investor confidence in China's deepening role in Pakistan's defence supply chain. By Thursday, however, the stock had eased slightly to Rs 138. Other than the speculation of these Chinese origin fighters performing exceedingly well, these spikes are also driven by investor belief that Pakistan might accelerate fighter acquisitions to strengthen its aerial capabilities following Operation Sindoor. Reports indicate that Pakistan could take delivery of the fifth generation FC-31 stealth fighter, the export version of China's J-35A, later this year. According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, Chinese equipment accounted for 81 percent of Pakistan's major arms imports over the past five years. Subsequently, during last month's hostilities, Pakistan fielded a range of Chinese-origin platforms, including JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets, HQ-9B long range air defence systems, HQ-16 medium range air defence systems, PL-15E beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM) and Chinese unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Beyond the loss of a couple of PAF aircrafts, several Chinese-supplied HQ-9B long-range and HQ-16 medium-range air defence systems were taken out by Harpy and Harop loitering munitions sourced from Israel. Additionally, the recovery of debris of a PL-15E beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) was confirmed by DG Air Operations (DGAO) Air Marshal A.K. Bharti in a press briefing. It was learnt that the much-discussed Chinese PL-15E missile failed to register a single hit during the conflict. Also read: Pakistan to go in for J-31 Chinese stealth fighters. What this could mean for balance of air power Western defence giants and market sentiment Western defence companies, from France's Dassault Aviation to the U.S.-based Lockheed Martin, experienced divergent market responses, shaped as much by battlefield developments, speculative reports and domestic developments. Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of India's Rafale jets, recorded a 6.4 percent decline between 7 and 12 May, with its stock falling from Rs 31,406 to a low of Rs 29,405. However, it had rebounded back to Rs 31,367 on Thursday, nearly regaining its pre-drop value. Incidentally, while Dassault Aviation hit its lowest point on 12 May, China's AVIC Chengdu registered its highest stock price during the same period, highlighting the contrasting market sentiments around the two defence suppliers amid the conflict. The initial dip may have been driven by concerns over possible losses, as the Indian Air Force did suffer setbacks during the operation, first hinted at by Air Marshal A.K. Bharti during the tri-services briefing held on 11 May and later confirmed by Chief of Defence Staff General Anil Chauhan in a Saturday interview with Bloomberg TV. Yet the Rafale jets, armed with SCALP cruise missiles and AASM Hammer glide bombs, carried out precision strikes on multiple targets across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The subsequent rebound in Dassault's stock suggests renewed investor confidence in the aircraft's combat effectiveness and strategic value. Furthermore, on Thursday, it was announced that the Rafale fighter aircraft fuselage will now be manufactured domestically by Tata Advanced Systems, strengthening its position as a strong contender for the Multi-role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme. In contrast, Lockheed Martin, whose F-16 fighters once formed the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force, registered only a modest 1.34 percent gain during the same period, with its stock rising from Rs 40,449 on the day Operation Sindoor was launched to Rs 40,990 by Thursday. The limited uptick can be attributed to heightened interest in the American aerospace giant's F-21, an advanced 4.5-generation fighter pitched as a potential contender for India, especially after unverified reports of Rafale being downed during Operation Sindoor drew the attention of investors and defence analysts. Lockheed Martin's uptick movement in stocks may also be linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on 15 May for the development of an upgraded 'F-22 Super' and a twin-engine variant of the F-35, provisionally dubbed the F-55. How speculation, politics and perception shape market swings Analysts also point out that stock movements observed since 7 May were driven not just by battlefield results but by narrative, politics and investor psychology. 'From a market perspective, defence procurement is a massive business. During events like Operation Sindoor, exaggerated speculation and misinformation are to be expected, especially when they serve the interests of those looking to profit,' Dr Vikas Gupta, CEO and smallcase manager at OmniScience Capital, told ThePrint. Big-ticket defence exports such as fighter jets are typically sealed through government-to-government agreements that generate employment and strategic influence for the given party, he added. 'At times, even governments may quietly encourage certain narratives if they align with their economic interests.' Dr Gupta also pointed out how China's market mechanics differ from the West. 'In China's case, there's an added layer of complexity. Beijing can directly intervene in markets, banning short selling, for instance, to stabilise or boost the performance of AVIC subsidiaries. That kind of intervention isn't feasible in countries like France, where the government usually avoids market interference.' Ultimately, the swings observed in the wake of Operation Sindoor reinforce a perceived reality of defence stocks remaining highly reactive to geopolitical flashpoints, with prices shaped as much by perception, speculation, politics and investor psychology as by actual battlefield performance. (Edited by Viny Mishra) Also read: Operation Sindoor signals a real paradigm shift, says ex-IAF chief. 'We hit where it hurts the most'
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
Operation Social Media: Digital dogs of war bark loud, bite little in Pakistan's info ops
'Indian forces wave the white flag!' "Karachi captured!" "Pakistan Army Chief arrested!" by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Moose Approaches Girl At Bus Stop In Tamil Nadu - Watch What Happens Happy in Shape Undo None of it was true. All of it went viral. As India and Pakistan teetered on the edge of open warfare this May following a gruesome terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians, a parallel battle unfolded, not on land or in air, but in the boundless terrain of cyberspace. Live Events This was not merely a war of missiles and drones; it was an orchestrated campaign of perception warfare, fuelled by a deluge of misinformation and psychological operations designed to distort, distract and destabilise. This is how 'Operation Social Media' unfolded -- an invisible front that exposed how deeply disinformation can influence modern conflict, and how India, despite facing a sophisticated hybrid threat, sought to maintain both operational focus and digital hygiene. Also Read: China, Pakistan 'launch' Operation Disinformation on Rafale after India's terror strikes When bots go off louder than bombs The crisis began with a terror attack at a popular tourist spot in Kashmir. The assault bore the fingerprints of Pakistan-based terror outfits, prompting New Delhi to launch Operation Sindoor , a series of precision strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on May 7. Almost immediately, unverified claims began saturating social media. According to reports from The Guardian and The Washington Post, X (formerly Twitter) became a hotbed of false triumphs, premature victory laps, and fictionalised skirmishes. Among the most viral, but entirely fabricated, narratives were: Indian jets capturing Lahore and Karachi. Arrest of Pakistan's army chief and an alleged military coup. A Pakistani cyberattack disabling India's power grid. India bombing Afghan territory or surrendering in key battlefronts. Doctored videos, repurposed war clips, and even footage from video games like Arma 3 flooded social media platforms during the India-Pakistan standoff, giving rise to a parallel narrative war. These posts were amplified by a mix of anonymous accounts, official handles, and even journalists acting on unverified inputs. Independent internet observatory NetBlocks reported that 65% of these viral false posts originated from IP addresses linked to Pakistan, while another 20% came from untraceable bot accounts. According to the Washington-based non-profit think tank, the Centre for the Study of Organized Hate, 'X emerged as the primary hub for both misinformation and disinformation.' The think tank analysed 437 such posts and found that 179, or nearly 41%, originated from verified accounts, which are often perceived as credible due to their blue-check status. These included posts by politicians, influencers, media personalities, and retired military officials. 'What was particularly alarming,' the report noted, 'was the credibility lent to these falsehoods by high-profile sources.' Despite the scale of this disinformation, only 73 posts, just 17%, were flagged by X's Community Notes, the platform's crowd-sourced fact-checking feature. This, the think tank argued, pointed to a serious lapse in content moderation at a time of high geopolitical tension. Raqib Hameed Naik, director of the think tank, described the information war as 'a global trend in hybrid warfare'. 'This wasn't ordinary nationalist chest-thumping,' said Joyojeet Pal of the University of Michigan. 'This had the potential to push two nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink.' Pakistan's playbook The social media campaign didn't begin with Operation Sindoor; it was already underway. On April 25, days before the Indian Air Force strike, India's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting had announced the banning of 16 YouTube channels and several Instagram accounts for spreading 'provocative and communally sensitive content.' Of these, six were Pakistan-based and ten operated from within India, with a combined viewership of over 680 million. A key inflection point came when Pakistan lifted its year-long ban on X during the peak of the crisis. According to minutes from a Pakistani Senate committee meeting, this move was deliberate and strategic, intended to enable Islamabad to 'participate in the narrative war.' Also Read: Lies, now open sourced: India-Pakistan conflict puts spotlight on open-source intelligence and credibility problem NetBlocks confirmed that access to X in Pakistan was restored precisely as tensions with India escalated, giving Pakistani agencies and allied influencers a wide window to flood the platform with misleading and often provocative posts. In the aftermath of the operation, and as misinformation swirled on social media, India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) Fact Check division stepped in to debunk dozens of viral claims. These included: Videos from Lebanon's 2020 explosion being shared as missile strikes on Indian cities. Drone footage from Jalandhar fires framed as attacks. Game footage falsely portraying Pakistani military success. Recycled images from other conflict zones passed off as Indian casualties. Together, these examples offer a window into the scale, coordination, and intent behind the disinformation campaign, aimed not just at misleading the public but also at distorting the global perception of India's military and political posture. Inside Pakistan's covert spy ring In a related espionage probe, Indian intelligence uncovered a Pakistan-backed operation recruiting social media influencers as spies. Naushaba Shahzad Masood, known as 'Madam N', runs Jaiyana Travels and Tourism in Lahore. She was building a network of 500 spies inside India, focusing on Hindu and Sikh YouTubers like Jyoti Malhotra and Jasbir Singh. In six months, Naushaba arranged travel for about 3,000 Indians and 1,500 expatriates to Pakistan, fast-tracking visas through direct contacts at the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi. She also managed Sikh and Hindu pilgrimage tours with the Evacuee Trust Property Board (ETPB), charging inflated fees that funded ISI propaganda. Financial trails include Naushaba's phone number found on arrested spies' devices and two Pakistani bank accounts linked to transfers from India. Her network recruits through agents operating in major Indian cities, including Delhi. Open-source intelligence: Boon or bane? The situation also highlighted the double-edged nature of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT). Originally conceived to empower citizens through satellite images, open data, and social media monitoring, OSINT's decentralised model became a tool for mass manipulation. 'Anyone with an internet connection could now pose as an OSINT expert,' observed an analysis published by ET. The danger lies in viral misinformation being passed off as expert assessments, especially when retweeted by influencers and news outlets under pressure for real-time content. Newsrooms under fire Some Indian newsrooms too fell for the deluge of fake news. According to The Washington Post, in one case, a journalist reportedly received a WhatsApp message, allegedly from a public broadcaster, claiming that Pakistan's army chief had been arrested. Within minutes, this falsehood became prime-time 'breaking news.' Speaking to The Post, Former Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao described the atmosphere as one of 'hypernationalism' and 'parallel reality,' cautioning that the lack of authoritative government briefings created a vacuum often filled by speculation. But not everyone was misled. Also Read: India's Press Information Bureau, along with a 24/7 monitoring centre set up by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, worked to counter misinformation in real time. Fact-checks were issued, social media handles were flagged, and broadcasters were warned for violating verification norms. Cyber Frontline: 1.5 million attacks, but only 150 breaches While social media churned with false claims, the real-time cyber threat was no less intense. According to Maharashtra Cyber, over 1.5 million cyber attacks were launched against Indian infrastructure by seven Pakistan-allied Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups. The barrage of cyberattacks not only came from the neighbouring country but from Bangladesh and the Middle Eastern region. Pro-Pakistan hacker collectives such as APT 36 (also known as Transparent Tribe), Pakistan Cyber Force, and Team Insane PK launched a coordinated series of cyberattacks in the days surrounding the crisis. Their arsenal included malware campaigns, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, GPS spoofing attempts, and website defacements aimed at sowing panic and disrupting public trust in India's digital infrastructure. According to officials familiar with the matter, India faced over 1.5 million intrusion attempts during this period. However, only 150 attacks were successful, a tiny fraction. Importantly, claims that the hackers had penetrated Mumbai's airport systems or Election Commission portals were found to be baseless. Addressing reporters, a senior official of Maharashtra Cyber debunked claims of hackers stealing data from Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport in Mumbai, hacking aviation and municipal systems, and targeting the Election Commission website. "The probe discovered that cyber attacks on (government websites in) India decreased after India-Pakistan ceased hostilities, but not fully stopped. These attacks continue from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Morocco, and Middle Eastern countries," he said. The Indian government's 'Road of Sindoor' report, a classified cyber threat assessment, showed these attacks were part of a coordinated hybrid warfare strategy involving both digital and psychological warfare. India's response While the information war raged online, Indian armed forces maintained disciplined silence and strategic clarity. Official statements were sparse, but targeted. Operation Sindoor focused solely on dismantling terrorist infrastructure, confirmed in a press conference by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who clarified that India did not target civilian installations. Behind the scenes, India's cyber defence grid was activated, fact-checking units expanded, and social media protocols for military updates tightened. The government also advised citizens to avoid unverified content and rely only on official sources. AI fact-checkers As the misinformation torrent intensified, social media users increasingly turned to AI chatbots for verification, only to find more confusion and falsehoods. Platforms like xAI's Grok, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Google's Gemini became common go-to tools for instant fact-checking amid the crisis. 'Hey @Grok, is this true?' became a viral plea on Elon Musk's platform X, reflecting the surge in users seeking quick debunks. However, these AI assistants often propagated misinformation themselves. Grok, under renewed criticism for inserting far-right conspiracy theories into unrelated answers, misidentified old video footage from Sudan's Khartoum airport as missile strikes on Pakistan's Nur Khan airbase during the conflict. Similarly, unrelated fire footage from Nepal was wrongly claimed as Pakistani military retaliation. McKenzie Sadeghi of the disinformation watchdog NewsGuard warned, 'The growing reliance on Grok as a fact-checker comes as X and other major tech companies have scaled back investments in human fact-checkers. Our research has repeatedly found that AI chatbots are not reliable sources for news and information, particularly when it comes to breaking news.' The Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University found that AI chatbots were 'generally bad at declining to answer questions they couldn't answer accurately, offering incorrect or speculative answers instead.' For instance, AFP fact-checkers in Uruguay asked Google's Gemini about an AI-generated image of a woman; it confirmed the image's authenticity but fabricated details about her identity and location. Truth is the first casualty, but not the last word The digital front of the India-Pakistan standoff reveals the complex landscape of modern warfare, where victory is measured not just in ground gained but in narrative controlled. Yet despite the storm of falsehoods, India's response, though understated, was layered, methodical, and largely effective. As the lines between social media warfare and statecraft blur, it's clear that the next great conflict won't just be fought with missiles, but with memes, metadata, and misinformation.
New Indian Express
2 hours ago
- New Indian Express
'US with India in fight against terror': Deputy Secretary of State tells Indian delegation
WASHINGTON: The US stands strong with India in the fight against terrorism, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau told Congress MP Shashi Tharoor-led all-party delegation here to convey India's stance on the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor. The Indian delegation met Landau here on Friday as it wrapped up the crucial US leg of its multi-nation tour, briefing key interlocutors about Operation Sindoor targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives. "The all-party parliamentary delegation led by Dr. @ShashiTharoor had a warm and candid conversation with US Deputy Secretary of State Landau. The Indian delegation briefed him on the atrocities of the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor," the Indian Embassy said on X. Landau, in a post on X, said it was a "GREAT" meeting with the Indian parliamentary representatives. "I reaffirmed that the US stands strong with India in the fight against terrorism. We discussed the US-India strategic relationship, including expanding trade and commercial ties to foster growth and prosperity for both countries," he said. A statement issued by State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Landau "reaffirmed the United States' strong support of India in the fight against terrorism and the strategic partnership between the two countries." The delegation discussed with Landau the importance of advancing key areas of the bilateral relationship, including expanding trade and commercial ties to foster economic growth and prosperity in both countries, according to the statement. The embassy, in a statement said, that during the meeting with Landau, the delegation briefed him on the heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam, discussed India's subsequent Operation Sindoor, and put forth India's firm resolve to counter cross-border terrorism in all its forms. "The deputy secretary reaffirmed the United States' strong support for India in the fight against terrorism. The two sides also had a wide-ranging conversation on the importance of strengthening bilateral relationships through advancing cooperation in areas of mutual interest," it said. The delegation also had a "productive meeting" with Senator Chris Van Hollen, a member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It briefed him on the heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam, discussed India's subsequent Operation Sindoor, and put forth India's firm resolve to counter cross-border terrorism in all its forms, the embassy said on X. The senator sympathised with the victims of repeated terror attacks in India, saying the US stood with India in the fight against terrorism, and expressed support for New Delhi's right to defend itself. Tharoor also spoke over the phone with Senator Cory Booker, a member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and described the conversation as "warm and productive." He briefed Booker on the "monstrous" terror attack in Pahalgam and outlined the repeated provocations of terrorism emanating from across the border, laid out the details of Operation Sindoor, and emphasised India's firm resolve in countering any future acts of terrorism. "Senator Booker unequivocally condemned terrorism and expressed sympathies with the victims. The conversation also touched upon broader themes in the India-US strategic partnership, which enjoys robust support," Tharoor said, adding that he hopes to meet Booker "Next time in person." Apart from Tharoor, the delegation comprises MPs Sarfaraz Ahmad, Ganti Harish Madhur Balayogi, Shashank Mani Tripathi, Bhubaneswar Kalita, Milind Deora, Tejasvi Surya, and India's former Ambassador to the US Taranjit Sandhu. Several prominent American lawmakers and congressmen, as well as policy experts, attended a special reception hosted by the Indian Embassy on Thursday night and interacted with the delegation.
