Apple, Samsung Sales Outlook Tumbles on U.S. Tariff Uncertainty
June 4 - Counterpoint Research cut its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% from 4.2%, citing renewed uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is now expected to see shipments rise about 2.5% in 2025, down from a previous 4% forecast. Samsung's shipments were trimmed to flat growth, versus an earlier 1.7% increase projection.
Although tariffs influenced our revisions, we are also factoring in weaker demand across Europe and parts of Asia, said Counterpoint Research Associate Director Liz Lee.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April, though smartphones and electronics were temporarily exempted. Still, the prospect of levies has weighed on both Apple and Samsung, which rely heavily on the U.S. market.
Shipments represent units sent to retailers, not actual sales. Apple has shifted more iPhone production to India, drawing criticism from Trump, who has urged manufacturing to move back to the U.S.
Huawei is a standout, with Counterpoint projecting 11% year-on-year shipment growth in 2025. Easing component bottlenecks should help Huawei gain share in mid-to-lower-end segments, added Associate Director Ethan Qi.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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