Emirati FM reviews regional crisis with Azerbaijani counterpart
LONDON: UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan discussed several regional issues with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, during a phone call on Tuesday.
The ministers discussed the latest developments in the Middle East and their impact on regional peace and security. Azerbaijan shares part of its southern border with Iran, which has been locked in conflict with Israel since June 13, before a ceasefire was announced on Tuesday.
Sheikh Abdullah and Bayramov said that enhancing diplomacy and dialogue is crucial for tackling the crisis, and fostering the foundations of enduring security in the region and beyond, the Emirates News Agency reported.
Both parties also discussed opportunities to enhance collaboration across various sectors and strengthen cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Baku, WAM added.
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Arab News
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Israel killed at least 14 scientists in an unprecedented attack on Iran's nuclear know-how
PARIS: Israel's tally of the war damage it wrought on Iran includes the targeted killings of at least 14 scientists, an unprecedented attack on the brains behind Iran's nuclear program that outside experts say can only set it back, not stop it. In an interview with The Associated Press, Israel's ambassador to France said the killings will make it 'almost' impossible for Iran to build weapons from whatever nuclear infrastructure and material may have survived nearly two weeks of Israeli airstrikes and massive bunker-busting bombs dropped by US stealth bombers. 'The fact that the whole group disappeared is basically throwing back the program by a number of years, by quite a number of years,' Ambassador Joshua Zarka said. But nuclear analysts say Iran has other scientists who can take their place. European governments say that military force alone cannot eradicate Iran's nuclear know-how, which is why they want a negotiated solution to put concerns about the Iranian program to rest. 'Strikes cannot destroy the knowledge Iran has acquired over several decades, nor any regime ambition to deploy that knowledge to build a nuclear weapon,' UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told lawmakers in the House of Commons. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program was peaceful, and US intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing a bomb. However, Israeli leaders have argued that Iran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon. Here's a closer look at the killings: Chemists, physicists, engineers among those killed Zarka told AP that Israeli strikes killed at least 14 physicists and nuclear engineers, top Iranian scientific leaders who 'basically had everything in their mind.' They were killed 'not because of the fact that they knew physics, but because of the fight that they were personally involved in, the creation and the fabrication and the production of (a) nuclear weapon,' he said. Nine of them were killed in Israel's opening wave of attacks on June 13, the Israeli military said. It said they 'possessed decades of accumulated experience in the development of nuclear weapons' and included specialists in chemistry, materials and explosives as well as physicists. Zarka spoke Monday to the AP. On Tuesday, Iran state TV reported the death of another Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohammad Reza Sedighi Saber, in an Israeli strike, after he'd survived an earlier attack that killed his 17-year-old son on June 13. Targeted killings meant to discourage would-be successors Experts say that decades of Iranian work on nuclear energy — and, Western powers allege, nuclear weapons — has given the country reserves of know-how and scientists who could continue any work toward building warheads to fit on Iran's ballistic missiles. 'Blueprints will be around and, you know, the next generation of Ph.D. students will be able to figure it out,' said Mark Fitzpatrick, who specialized in nuclear non-proliferation as a former US diplomat. Bombing nuclear facilities 'or killing the people will set it back some period of time. Doing both will set it back further, but it will be reconstituted.' 'They have substitutes in maybe the next league down, and they're not as highly qualified, but they will get the job done eventually,' said Fitzpatrick, now an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think tank. How quickly nuclear work could resume will in part depend on whether Israeli and US strikes destroyed Iran's stock of enriched uranium and equipment needed to make it sufficiently potent for possible weapons use. 'The key element is the material. So once you have the material, then the rest is reasonably well-known,' said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst who specializes in Russia's nuclear arsenal. He said killing scientists may have been intended 'to scare people so they don't go work on these programs.' 'Then the questions are, 'Where do you stop?' I mean you start killing, like, students who study physics?' he asked. 'This is a very slippery slope.' The Israeli ambassador said: 'I do think that people that will be asked to be part of a future nuclear weapon program in Iran will think twice about it.' Israel is widely believed to be the only Middle Eastern country with nuclear weapons, which it has never acknowledged. Previous attacks on scientists Israel has long been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists but previously didn't claim responsibility as it did this time. In 2020, Iran blamed Israel for killing its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, with a remote-controlled machine gun. 'It delayed the program but they still have a program. So it doesn't work,' said Paris-based analyst Lova Rinel, with the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank. 'It's more symbolic than strategic.' Without saying that Israel killed Fakhrizadeh, the Israeli ambassador said 'Iran would have had a bomb a long time ago' were it not for repeated setbacks to its nuclear program — some of which Iran attributed to Israeli sabotage. 'They have not reached the bomb yet,' Zarka said. 'Every one of these accidents has postponed a little bit the program.' A legally grey area International humanitarian law bans the intentional killing of civilians and non-combatants. But legal scholars say those restrictions might not apply to nuclear scientists if they were part of the Iranian armed forces or directly participating in hostilities. 'My own take: These scientists were working for a rogue regime that has consistently called for the elimination of Israel, helping it to develop weapons that will allow that threat to take place. As such, they are legitimate targets,' said Steven R. David, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. He said Nazi German and Japanese leaders who fought Allied nations during World War II 'would not have hesitated to kill the scientists working on the Manhattan Project' that fathered the world's first atomic weapons. Laurie Blank, a specialist in humanitarian law at Emory Law School, said it's too early to say whether Israel's decapitation campaign was legal. 'As external observers, we don't have all the relevant facts about the nature of the scientists' role and activities or the intelligence that Israel has,' she said by email to AP. 'As a result, it is not possible to make any definitive conclusions.' Zarka, the ambassador, distinguished between civilian nuclear research and the scientists targeted by Israel. 'It's one thing to learn physics and to know exactly how a nucleus of an atom works and what is uranium,' he said. But turning uranium into warheads that fit onto missiles is 'not that simple,' he said. 'These people had the know-how of doing it, and were developing the know-how of doing it further. And this is why they were eliminated.'
Arab News
2 hours ago
- Arab News
France warns Iran sanctions still possible if no nuclear deal
UNITED NATIONS, United States: France and its European partners are still prepared to reactivate sanctions on Iran if an agreement is not reached soon on its nuclear program, the French ambassador to the UN warned Tuesday. 'Time is running out,' said Jerome Bonnnafont at a UN Security Council meeting, in reference to the October expiration of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. 'We expect Iran to return to talks without delay in order to achieve a robust, verifiable and lasting diplomatic solution,' he added. Bonnafont said negotiations were the only way to 'guarantee the impossibility of an Iranian military nuclear program,' days after the United States conducted strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. 'France and its E3 partners (Germany and the United Kingdom) remain ready to use the leverage established by Resolution 2231, that of a 'snapback' (of sanctions), if a satisfactory agreement is not reached by summer,' he warned. UK ambassador Barbara Wood concurred, saying: 'We will use all diplomatic levers at our disposal to support a negotiated outcome, and ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.' UN Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsed the 2015 agreement Iran reached with the E3 countries, as well as China, Russia and the United States, to regulate its nuclear program in return for eased sanctions. President Donald Trump removed the United States from the agreement in 2018.
Arab News
2 hours ago
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This is what could happen next after an Israel-Iran ceasefire
WASHINGTON: The whipsaw chain of events involving Iran, Israel and the United States that culminated in a surprise ceasefire has raised many questions about how the Trump administration will approach the Middle East going forward. Yet, the answer to the bottom line question — 'what's next?' — remains unknowable and unpredictable. That is because President Donald Trump has essentially sidelined the traditional US national security apparatus and confined advice and decision-making to a very small group of top aides operating from the White House. While there is uncertainty about whether the ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, it opens the possibility of renewed talks with Tehran over its nuclear program and reinvigorating stalled negotiations in other conflicts. Watching for next steps on Trump's social media Outside experts, long consulted by presidential administrations on policy, have been forced like the general public to follow Trump's social media musings and pronouncements for insights on his thinking or the latest turn of events. Even Congress does not appear to be in the loop as top members were provided only cursory notifications of Trump's weekend decision to hit three Israeli nuclear facilities and briefings on their impact scheduled for Tuesday were abruptly postponed. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce, whose agency has played a key role in formulating Iran policy for decades, repeatedly on Tuesday deferred questions to the White House and Trump's posts. 'The secretary of state was in a dynamic with the president that is a private dynamic as that team was addressing a war and the nature of how to stop it,' she told reporters. 'I can't speak to how that transpired or the decisions that were made.' Trump's announcement Monday that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire took many in the administration by surprise — as did his post Tuesday that China is now free to import Iranian oil. It's an apparent 180-degree shift from Trump's 'maximum pressure campaign' on Iran since he withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement during his first term. US officials were left wondering if that meant wide-ranging sanctions aimed at cutting off Iran's energy revenue were being eased or reversed. Assessing the damage to Iran's nuclear program While the extent of the damage from 11 days of Israeli attacks and Saturday's strikes by US bunker-buster bombs is not yet fully known, a preliminary assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency said the nuclear program had been set back only a few months and was not 'completely and fully obliterated' as Trump has said. According to people familiar with the report, it found that while the strikes at the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites did significant damage, they were not totally destroyed. Still, most experts believe the facilities will require months or longer to repair or reconstruct if Iran chooses to try to maintain its program at previous levels. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of US Central Command, who has been nominated to lead forces in the Middle East, told lawmakers Tuesday that Iran still possesses 'significant tactical capability' despite the American strikes. He pointed to Iran's attempt to retaliate with missile launches at a US base in Qatar. In response to a question about whether the Iranians still pose a threat to US troops and Americans worldwide, Cooper replied, 'They do.' Trump, after announcing the ceasefire, boasted that Iran will never again have a nuclear program. However, there are serious questions about whether Iran's leadership, which has placed a high premium on maintaining its nuclear capabilities, will be willing to negotiate them away. Restarting US-Iran nuclear talks is possible Another major question is what happens with negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. It is not entirely clear who in Iran has the authority to make a deal or even agree to reenter talks with the US or others. Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Iranian leadership is at a moment of disarray — making it difficult to return to the table. 'The country's leadership and the regime is not cohesive enough to be able to come to some sort of negotiations at this point, especially negotiations from the American perspective, whose conclusion is predetermined, namely, zero enrichment,' he said. Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed, saying that 'the biggest challenge right now is who is in charge in Tehran.' 'Is there an Iranian negotiation team empowered to make consequential decisions?' he said. 'The issue is that (Trump) is dealing with an Iranian government whose longtime identity has been based on hostility toward the the United States.' Still, a US official said Tuesday that special envoy Steve Witkoff is ready to resume negotiations if Trump tells him to and Iran is willing. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. Witkoff has maintained an open line of direct communication via text messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In the aftermath of the US strikes, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio both stressed that diplomacy is still Trump's preferred method for ending the conflict permanently. 'We didn't blow up the diplomacy,' Vance told NBC's 'Meet the Press' on Sunday. 'The diplomacy never was given a real chance by the Iranians. And our hope … is that this maybe can reset here. The Iranians have a choice. They can go down the path of peace or they can go down the path of this ridiculous brinksmanship.' Rubio echoed those comments. 'We're prepared right now, if they call right now and say we want to meet, let's talk about this, we're prepared to do that,' he said. 'The president's made that clear from the very beginning: His preference is to deal with this issue diplomatically.' The Israel-Iran ceasefire could affect Trump's approach to other conflicts If it holds, the ceasefire could offer insight to the Trump administration as it tries to broker peace in several other significant conflicts with ties to Iran. An end — even a temporary one — to the Iran-Israel hostilities may allow the administration to return to talks with mediators like Egypt and Qatar to seek an end to the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hamas. In Syria, a further shift away from now-weakened Iranian influence — pervasive during ousted leader Bashar Assad's reign — could open new doors for US-Syria cooperation. Trump already has met the leader of the new Syrian government and eased US sanctions. Similarly, tense US relations with Lebanon also could benefit from a reduced Iranian role in supporting the Hezbollah militant group, which has been a force of its own — rivaling if not outperforming the Lebanese Armed Forces, particularly near the Israeli border. If an Iran-Israel ceasefire holds, it also could allow Trump the time and space to return to stalled efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Iran have substantial economic and military cooperation, including Tehran providing Moscow with drones that the Russian military has relied on heavily in its war against Ukraine. Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine in recent days as Israel attacked sites in Iran, perhaps expecting the world's attention to shift away from its three-year-old invasion.
