France's left is celebrating Le Pen's conviction. But gloating will make it harder to beat the far right

The Guardian

02-04-2025

The verdict is in: the National Rally (NR) and its leader, Marine Le Pen, have been found to have employed fictitious European parliament assistants between 2004 and 2016. The fraudulent scheme enabled the misappropriation of around €2.9m in European funds, and Le Pen has now been barred from holding public office for five years. Could this mark the end for the National Rally? Highly unlikely – and the reason lies in the party's strategy.
During the trial, Le Pen deliberately maintained silence in response to the allegations – a tactic some outlets dismissed as evidence of a weak defence, even questioning her credibility. Yet this quiet is far from a sign of weakness; it reflects a long-established approach that consistently shuns conventional manoeuvres in favour of an intentionally unpredictable stance.
The origins of this strategy date back to 2011, when she set in motion the 'de-demonisation' of the NR. This was not just an exercise in recalibrating the party's image and rhetoric; it was a move to sever ties with the extremist legacy that had long marred her family's name. Her rebranding transformed the Front National into the National Rally and charted a new course for the party.
This process also involved a purge of party members who openly endorsed the Vichy regime – a purge so uncompromising that it resulted in the banishment of her own father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. By casting him aside as a cornerstone of her de-demonisation campaign, she demonstrated a readiness to make brutal sacrifices. Now, she may well have to repeat this tactic, sacrificing herself to clear the path for the rise of the NR's prodigy, Jordan Bardella.
At just 29 years old, Bardella embodies a generational shift that encapsulates the perils of a re-energised far right. His narrative infuses the party's appeal with a contemporary flavour, resonating particularly with young men. His proficient use of social media platforms such as TikTok has not only mobilised the party's base but also illustrated the evolving tactics of far-right organising in the digital age.
Current opinion polls reveal that the NR is enjoying a notable surge in support. Now, with Marine Le Pen's conviction, Bardella may well be holding a winning hand – including the strategic weaponisation of his mentor's legal setback.
This playbook has become alarmingly predictable. After the 6 January Capitol attack, Donald Trump dismissed his legal challenges as politically motivated witch-hunts, orchestrating a maddening comeback. (Asked on Monday about Le Pen's conviction, Trump said it was a 'very big deal' and 'very much like' what had happened in his own country.) The same drama unfolds in Europe. In Romania, far-right populist Călin Georgescu's futile appeal against a ruling barring him from the presidential race barely dampened his supporters' fervour; instead, they surged behind another far-right figure, George Simion, who now leads in the polls.
Of course, both cases are dwarfed by the exploits of Silvio Berlusconi, the maestro of political comebacks. The late Italian former prime minister faced a barrage of charges – from abuse of office and bribery to extortion and paying for sex with an underage girl – yet in 2014 he managed to overturn his conviction, casting his legal battles as nothing more than politically motivated persecution.
Yesterday, Marine Le Pen followed suit, insisting that her prosecution is a 'political decision' and 'a denial of democracy'. This is how the far right operates: when courts deliver unfavourable verdicts, these outcomes are reframed as proof of an orchestrated conspiracy, while any favourable decision is lionised as an indisputable victory for democracy.
How should we deal with this playbook? First, we must not reproduce Le Pen's argument that her conviction was a political attack – especially not within the left, which should stand for dignity in these challenging democratic times. Defending her is indefensible; the courts exist to deliver justice, and no one is above the law.
Second, Bardella's meteoric rise in the polls demands a swift response from the French left – the only political force capable of mounting a robust ideological counterargument against hate, economic isolation and the promotion of white supremacy. NR clearly has a long-term plan centred on Bardella, and there's little doubt that this strategy will resonate with voters in the wake of Le Pen's conviction.
This is a call to arms for the leftwing France Unbowed and its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It must renew the party, diversify its ranks and invest in emerging talent that resonates with younger voters – mirroring the approach of Die Linke in Germany – if it is to prevent the far right from advancing into Europe's centre for the first time since the second world war.
Given that Elon Musk has tweeted several times in support of Le Pen, it is also crucial to recognise that the boundaries between global far-right movements are increasingly blurred, with their mobilisation tactics evolving rapidly. Democracies must confront this challenge head on and urgently unite against the far-right threat before it is too late.
Georgios Samaras is assistant professor of public policy at the Policy Institute, King's College London