Labour's hollow promises leave Scotland ripe for Reform's toxic rise

The National

24-05-2025

I've watched our SNP candidate councillor Katy Loudon engage with voters and she's got a warm, personable approach. The local SNP hub is a hive of activity with activists coming and going all day.
In the midst of that, there have been a few conversations that were more disheartening, with people who told me that they don't vote any more.
At the last election, they voted Labour. One voted Labour because they are a Waspi woman and had high hopes that the pension she'd saved for, and then been denied, would be restored. Another said he's fed up that none of the promises that compelled him to vote have been delivered.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar responds to claim by-election candidate 'can't string sentence together'
People voted Labour on the promise of change. They wanted shot of the Tories. Optimism, hope and expectation characterised their choices. They expected Labour to be the polar opposite of the Tories – to deliver their manifesto, to be honest with the people and to govern from the left or at least the centre-left.
But they feel like there has been little change. It is more destructive to politicians to raise hope and then disappoint, as Labour have.
Nobody expected the Tories to care about communities that have been left behind, and so when that happened it was almost factored in. With Labour it has been different.
Into that void step Reform UK. Over the past few months, many have been stunned to see the polling suggesting that Reform's popularity is growing rapidly. A couple of weeks ago, a new poll from True North predicted that Reform would be the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament in the 2026 election – finishing ahead of Labour.
Their tactic is clearly to mop up the votes of people who are fed up and scunnered with the status quo. One lady I spoke to suggested that she was going to vote Reform because she didn't like politicians.
In other words, they are positioning themselves as anti-everything, the alternative to the status quo. They have no Scottish policies and I have seen no indication of anything they are promising the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
In fact, the online advert they posted last week resorted to dog-whistle, racist accusations about Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
The utterly abhorrent advert claimed that Sarwar will 'prioritise the Pakistani community' while Reform can be counted on to prioritise constituents. As Sarwar said this week, it questions his identity, questions his loyalty and questions his belonging in Scotland.
Devoid of any specific policies or interventions that will do anything to improve lives in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, Reform have instead weaponised race and whipped up a frenzy of racism against the leader of Scottish Labour.
READ MORE: SNP and Scottish Labour unite to condemn 'blatantly racist' Reform UK advert
Reform are exploiting voters' sense of disenfranchisement. Rather than offering any policy to fix the system, they point the finger at immigrants as an easy target. It is simplistic, empty and dangerous.
One of the reasons it is doubly dangerous is because the system has indeed left far too many communities behind. The evidence is all around us. It isn't just Labour's failures and broken promises over the past year.
Research by Future Economy Scotland last week revealed that Scots' wages have been flatlining since 2008. That means that real average weekly earnings at the end of 2024 were a mere £8 higher than they were in 2008. Only £8. Think how much your bills and costs have gone up in that time – vastly more than £8. Wages have not kept pace.
Future Economy Scotland estimates that means average earnings in Scotland are an astonishing £15,000 lower than they would have been if wages had grown as normal since 2008. In stark terms, in 2024, the average full-time worker in Scotland earned £38,464 a year. If earnings had instead grown in line with pre-crisis trends, the same worker would be earning £53,923 today. What a difference that would make to households today.
Scots' earnings haven't grown, work isn't paying, more people are struggling to make ends meet. Bills keep rising, making households feel like they can't catch a break. It is the difference between feeling secure, and never feeling fully secure.
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We know what has caused this – runaway inflation, the energy market, austerity and Covid. Most people don't sit down and do an academic paper on the causes. They just want a break. And the current system is so broken it can't deliver for them. And into this come Reform, pointing to immigrants and blaming them.
Apart from the moral horror of that approach, it is also likely to make things massively worse. Scotland's care sector – and we all know about the pressures on that – is dependent on international workers. They are a lifeline.
In fact, they make up more than 90% of staff in some organisations. In a recent survey that Scottish Care undertook, 26% of the staffing of those organisations that responded were from overseas.
We need to sort out the system, not blame others. Only a total transformation will work. We've seen what the Tories did. We now know what Labour will do. And it is the same root problem – a broken system. Reform will break it further, destroying community cohesion.
Put power in the hands of the people through independence and restore democracy, economic security and community power.