Number of likely days for Channel crossings double compared with previous years

Independent

2 days ago

Days when weather conditions are considered favourable for Channel crossings by migrants have been running at more than double the number seen in previous years, new Home Office data shows.
There were 60 so-called 'red' days between January 1 and April 30 this year, when factors such as wind speed, wave height and the likelihood of rain meant crossings were classed by officials as 'likely' or 'highly likely'.
Some 11,074 migrants arrived in the UK during these four months after crossing the Channel.
By contrast, there were 27 red days in the same period last year, less than half the number in 2025, with 7,567 arrivals recorded – nearly a third lower than the total for this year.
There were also 27 red days in the first four months of 2022, with 23 red days in 2023, with 6,691 and 5,946 arrivals in these periods, respectively.
Assessments of the likelihood of migrant crossings are prepared for the Home Office by the Met Office.
The assessments are colour-coded red, amber or green according tothe likelihood of activity based on environmental and other factors, including wave height, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, the chance of rain, and other weather trends.
Red days mean the probability of migrant activity in the Channel is greater than 55%, with crossings classed as 'likely' or 'highly likely'.
Green days are determined by the likelihood being less than 35%, with crossings 'unlikely' or 'highly unlikely'.
The analysis is based on data recorded in the Dover Strait and does not consider wider factors such as the availability of dinghies.
The publication comes just days after 1,195 migrants made the journey to the UK in 19 boats on Saturday, in the highest daily total recorded so far this year.
The cumulative total for the year, 14,812, is the highest for the first five months of a year since data collection began in 2018.
Reacting to the figures, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: 'Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy.
'This is a weak Government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel.
'Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming 'the dog ate my homework'.
'This is a clear failure for our weak Prime Minister and his weak Home Secretary.'
Mr Philp also said the reason for the 'worst year in history' for Channel crossings was because the Labour government cancelled the Rwanda plan to deter migrants coming to the UK, not the weather.
A Home Office spokesman said: 'This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.'
The Government has vowed to crack down on people smuggling gangs, including by handing counter terror-style powers to law enforcement agencies under the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, currently going through Parliament.
The spokesman added that 9,000 crossings have been prevented from the French coastline this year.
Officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of bringing numbers down this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
On Monday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told MPs the Government is pressing their French counterparts to bring in agreed changes that would allow French police to also take action in the sea when migrants climb into boats from the water.
'A French maritime review is looking at what new operational tactics they will use, and we are urging France to complete this review and implement the changes as swiftly as possible,' she said.
'I have been in touch with the French interior minister who supports stronger action again this weekend, and there are further discussions under way this week.'
Elsewhere, the data shows the number of migrants arriving per boat has been on an upward trend since data was first recorded in 2018, when the average for the year was seven.
It rose to 11 per boat in 2019, 13 in 2020, 28 in 2021, 41 in 2022, 49 in 2023 and 53 in 2024.
So far this year, the average has been 56.
Gunes Kalkan, of Safe Passage International, said the rise only increases the risk to people's lives.
'This indicates the Government's approach isn't working, as the smugglers continue to exploit the lack of safe routes for refugees, cramming more and more people dangerously on each boat,' he said.
'But let's always remember these aren't just 'numbers'. People fleeing the horrors of war and persecution are simply seeking a safe life, and often to reunite with family they were torn apart from in the chaos.
'If this Government is serious about saving lives and stopping the smugglers, it must open safe routes and expand refugee family reunion.'